revtothelimit - motorbike forum

derek badger wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:41 am People just need to accept that it's killing people and start behaving like a dire situation such as the one we're all in requires.

This.

But it's not going to happen because many people think that "it" is never going to happen to them so they're going to carry on regardless.

Edit: and there simply are not enough police to enforce the rules.

Consider also that is much much easier to police a lockdown than the previous regs. Or at least, it's alot easier to tell when they're being broken!

"On hearing ill rumour that Londoners may soon be urged into their lodgings by Her Majesty's men, I looked upon the street to see a gaggle of striplings making fair merry, and no doubt spreading the plague well about. Not a care had these rogues for the health of their elders!"
Samuel Pepys Diaries London 1664.

https://www.pepysdiary.com/encyclopedia/301/

Did you actually read the link?

Somewhat given away by "Her Majesty's men" while Charles II was on the Throne and that it wouldn't have been the King's men dealing with things anyway at that point.

Mr. Dazzle wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:16 am<snip>

Hospitals all over the country are running at >100% capacity.

<snip>

The NHS has been on the verge of collapse every winter for as long as I can remember. The boy has cried "wolf" too many times in the past for me to take him seriously this time.

Shropshire police keen to not be outdone by Derbyshire.

Saga Lout wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:15 pm The NHS has been on the verge of collapse every winter for as long as I can remember. The boy has cried "wolf" too many times in the past for me to take him seriously this time.

I don't recall them ever cancelling all routine - and lots of non routine - procedures, building emergency hospitals, buying up private beds, getting coppers to drive ambulances, shipping patients hundreds of miles to find a free bed or reducing the minimum required staffing levels nationwide before.

But nah, it's probably fine.

Mr. Dazzle wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:24 pm

Saga Lout wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:15 pm The NHS has been on the verge of collapse every winter for as long as I can remember. The boy has cried "wolf" too many times in the past for me to take him seriously this time.

I don't recall them ever cancelling all routine - and lots of non routine - procedures, building emergency hospitals, buying up private beds, getting coppers to drive ambulances, shipping patients hundreds of miles to find a free bed or reducing the minimum required staffing levels nationwide before.

But nah, it's probably fine.

I don't think that's the message but in any case, the fable actually relates to a real wolf so...

Fact is, early last year the NHS were warning they were overwhelmed, at the breaking point etc. operating at 99.99% capacity

Now they are saying things are twice as bad.

What are they going to say when it gets worse?

Well they will keep on going whatever..."collapse" doesn't mean they all just say "fuck it", switch the lights off and go home.

It just means lots more people die than otherwise would have, and that the NHS may not be there for you if you need it. Best just hope you don't need it is all.

demographic wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:54 am Last big lockdown someone had access to the numbers of vehicles on the roads statistics (might have been Gedge?) And as I've been working this week I think that theres far more traffic on the road this time round.
Is that showing in the statistics or am I just wrong?

To my eyes the car numbers on the M6 between Penrith and Carlisle just hasn't significantly lessened after Wednesday.

It was me. Pre lockdown 2 October/November ish flows were up to about 70% of the previous year After the Xmas holidays, in the area I know, flows are about 50% of last January on Monday and have not risen through the week.

DEADPOOL wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:29 pm

Mr. Dazzle wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:24 pm

Saga Lout wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:15 pm The NHS has been on the verge of collapse every winter for as long as I can remember. The boy has cried "wolf" too many times in the past for me to take him seriously this time.

I don't recall them ever cancelling all routine - and lots of non routine - procedures, building emergency hospitals, buying up private beds, getting coppers to drive ambulances, shipping patients hundreds of miles to find a free bed or reducing the minimum required staffing levels nationwide before.

But nah, it's probably fine.

I don't think that's the message but in any case, the fable actually relates to a real wolf so...

Fact is, early last year the NHS were warning they were overwhelmed, at the breaking point etc. operating at 99.99% capacity

Now they are saying things are twice as bad.

What are they going to say when it gets worse?

Maybe they'll get some of the Tik Tok dancing nurses to put in a shift.

Mr. Dazzle wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:18 pm Shropshire police keen to not be outdone by Derbyshire.

Mr. Dazzle wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:31 pm Well they will keep on going whatever..."collapse" doesn't mean they all just say "fuck it", switch the lights off and go home.

It just means lots more people die than otherwise would have, and that the NHS may not be there for you if you need it. Best just hope you don't need it is all.

Given that this is a virus pandemic that has become more infectious and virulent, exactly what events should and could have taken place that would not have resulted in people dying who "otherwise would [not] have"?

People do not understand who this virus kills. The government says that this virus primarily kills the old - this is true but only because the overwhelming majority of the over 60s have pre-existing health conditions. In other words, the primary correlation is with pre-existing health conditions, NOT with age. Look at these ONS statistics (17 Dec 2020)

Breakdown by pre existing condition

Pre existing condition
Age group Yes No Unknown presence of pre-existing condition Total
Total 43,555 1,911 0 45,466

0 - 19 yrs 21 6 0 27
20 - 39 255 42 0 297
40 - 59 2,817 329 0 3,146
60 - 79 16,544 799 0 17,343
80+ 23,918 735 0 24,653
Unknown age 0 0 0 0

In the 60-79 age group, over 95% of fatalities have pre-existing conditions.

In the 80+ age group, over 97% have pre-existing conditions.

22% of the UK population of 66m is over 60 with a pre-existing condition rate of over 95%.

This means that there are far more than 13m over 60 year olds with pre-existing conditions for the virus to attack (0.22 x 66m x 0.95).

Those with pre-existing conditions can not rely on the NHS, they must shield themselves.

None of that is particularly relevant to whether or not the NHS is under pressure. One way or another, through their own actions or that of others, lots of these people are getting ill and filling up hospitals to unprecedented levels.

I think one problem is that no one really knows what pre existing condition means and think it means really sick people when in fact it can and often does mean people who would have been fine i.e. diabetics or obese people.

Mr. Dazzle wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:41 pm None of that is particularly relevant to whether or not the NHS is under pressure. One way or another, through their own actions or that of others, lots of these people are getting ill and filling up hospitals to unprecedented levels.

It is relevant precisely because the huge numbers of people over 60 with pre-existing conditions the virus can attack guarantee that the NHS will be overwhelmed.

Taipan wrote: Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:21 pm If you drive somewhere to then exercise by walking, then you've deffo missed the point. Well done Derbyshire Police.

That's a good point. Use your common sense doesn't work because most people's common sense differs, to a degree. In this case where there is a strong lockdown I'd suggest driving anywhere that is not essential is a risk - if you have an accident you expose others, you use up valuable resources. To some that may sound daft, unlikely - that's the problem.

Over here, full lockdown meant to exercise outside of a 1km radius of you home. For me, that's fine but then I'm rural - I can see how that may not work for those in city locations. Then again, there's no plod in the countryside over here to enforce this stuff.

One thing I will say because I will leave my personal opinion out of this, the photo used in the BBC was staged. At what poit did the BBC get involved and how, and how did it get as far as the 10 O'Clock News.

Just watching the news, Police are going being to be instructed they have to fine people after 1 warning if people refuse to go home when they are told, maybe that will change things!

The picture was staged, the women were fined as soon as they stepped out of their cars. Iirc they offered to leave straight away but still got the fine.