UK house price predictions?

[Horse]

I'm trying to work out if I can make that picture appear when my wife calls me.
Edit: found it.

When my wife calls the ringtone is a chicken clucking.

I knew a guy who had the shrieking noise from the Psycho movie shower murder scene. Marriage didn't last much longer.

Anyway, chicken. Perhaps you need 'Chicken Rhythm'

[Mr. Dazzle]

No-one under 40 knows that sound their phone actually makes when it rings, who TF takes it off silent?

[cheb]

Old farts who use it as a phone?

Mine plays a klaxon type noise for important calls and Bazzini's La Ronde des lutins when my wife rings.

[Greenman]

Property is booming in Bristol. Ive made 32% on my property less than 2 miles from the centre in 3 years.
*and smash out techno and dub all night!!!

Have your neighbours' property values dropped substantially since you moved in 3 years ago?

Nope i don't live around toffs.

It''s quite liberal around here, people don't get all funny if your name isn't Hyacinth Bouquet! There is always music coming from somewhere and everyone is really nice, best place i have ever lived. I have lived in nicer area's and they were mostly full of stuck up tossers.

[Greenman]

Montpellier or St Paul's?

Close, BS5

[tricol]

Certainly going to be interesting to see how it plays out over the next 1-2 years. We've just bought. It took us around 10 weeks in total from putting the house on the market to moving into the new place. We sold to a no chain buyer at asking price, even though we knew we could have got more. The prices had already began to plateau so I'm guessing they will start to slide over the coming months. We're here for the long term so what the pricing does even over the next 5 years isn't much of a concern.

[Docca]

The new build we are buying is £750000. We’re coming to the end of 2022, and this price has been in place since 2019 ( since before the first brick was laid).

The builder bloke who will be moving in opposite in exactly the same house has an arrangement to sell within a year and it’s currently valued at 900000, he reckons this will be more like 950000 end of 2023.

I’m not sure of house prices going down at all, especially not new builds. If I had my time again, I’d be investing in these and selling them ( he has 4 on this estate).

[Asian Boss]

Stating the obvious here but I probably wouldn't rely on this builder for house price predictions, he's hardly going to talk down the value of the ones he still needs to sell.

It's not even a discussion anymore amongst investors, the consensus is that prices will drop next year around 10%, but of course there will be outliers that buck any trend depending on location and demand.

I think there's some wisdom here Funky.

Never take financial advice from a builder, tooleygoon or rough old lag who's grafting in the sand.

[Asian Boss]

Stating the obvious here but I probably wouldn't rely on this builder for house price predictions, he's hardly going to talk down the value of the ones he still needs to sell.

It's not even a discussion anymore amongst investors, the consensus is that prices will drop next year around 10%, but of course there will be outliers that buck any trend depending on location and demand.

I think there's some wisdom here Funky.

Never take financial advice from a builder, tooleygoon or rough old lag who's grafting in the sand.

I'll agree with that.

Never take financial advice from anyone that hasn't already got more money than he needs in the bank - otherwise he's on the graft himself and guessing like everyone else.

I'm skiving in a Portakabin and I have nothing in the bank. Well, less than 100k.

[Pirahna]

I'm not sure my prediction of 10% is strictly right but according to all the reputable news sources it's close enough.
I should start a fortune telling business.

I read an article (which I now can't find) from a bloke who reckons property prices have a predictable cycle. Prices rose too steeply in lockdown and will dip before picking up the predictable rise, only to drop again in two years time.

[Pirahna]

I'm not sure my prediction of 10% is strictly right but according to all the reputable news sources it's close enough.
I should start a fortune telling business.

I read an article (which I now can't find) from a bloke who reckons property prices have a predictable cycle. Prices rose too steeply in lockdown and will dip before picking up the predictable rise, only to drop again in two years time.

Edit: found it

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mor ... n-off.html

[Count Steer]

I'm not sure my prediction of 10% is strictly right but according to all the reputable news sources it's close enough.
I should start a fortune telling business.

I read an article (which I now can't find) from a bloke who reckons property prices have a predictable cycle. Prices rose too steeply in lockdown and will dip before picking up the predictable rise, only to drop again in two years time.

Edit: found it

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mor ... n-off.html

I think there's a similar theory about the whole economic cycle - stock markets etc, although they usually talk about 20 years.

I suppose when interest rates rise, house prices drop and rents (on properties that are bought on mortgages) go up, at least initially. Sooner or later you feel they'll have to get back in step but there's a lag. Rents do seem a bit bizarre compared with lots of other places though.

[Mr. Dazzle]

Rent is probably also being heavily effected by good old fashioned supply/demand right now? Combination of simply not enough homes (in the desired places at least) and loads of private landlords exiting?

[Count Steer]

Rent is probably also being heavily effected by good old fashioned supply/demand right now? Combination of simply not enough homes (in the desired places at least) and loads of private landlords exiting?

I haven't been following closely but are loads of private landlords exiting? I'd expect a lot of latecomers will quit if interest rates rise but, hey ho, that should push prices down and make places within reach of renters-turned-buyers.

The low interest rates of recent years drove the buy-to-let market and, maybe, if rates stay at 5 or 6% for a while the market will cool. BtL really has distorted the market. Well, that and Local Authorities having lost their rental stock and being unable to build more. As far as supply goes there's a building boom locally...but everything that's going up seems to be £1M+. They don't seem to have a problem selling but some of the building quality looks I was looking at a place recently (for some reason it's been clad in tiles that make it look like a public toilet) and they were dismantling chunks of it. It looked like the insulation in the walls had slumped or something. Tiny gardens at the back, no garden at all at the front, single garage....still £1M. You just know it's going to look like a car park because every house will have more than one car - but they'll sell.

[Dodgy69]

Can't see prices dropping for long, massive demand and all that. Also, if folk offer asking prices, shouldn't that be deal done, if the cash is there.

[tricol]

There have been a few properties on this new build estate that have gone up for sale recently. I'd say 4-5 of them, and 3 have sold. All below what they were bought for somewhere between 2020-2022. Very similar house to ours sold for more than £10k less than what we paid for ours in Sept 22. House spec could vary though. The others are a good 8-10% below the original sale price in the same period, so things have dropped, here at least. There are 3 unsold new builds still here, the estate is pretty much finished now.

One part of our mortgage is up for renewal in Feb, we're hoping that interest rates have dipped a little bit by then. It's going to sting, but thankfully we can take the hit. Might have to cancel the order for my new V4R.

[DefTrap]

Depends where you are, round my way prices seem to be stable enough. But good to know I can raise my rent a bit.

[Noggin]

I have anecdotes from people I know, but apparently the rules are changing.

A landlord used to be able to issue a no-fault eviction (or something similar, I forget the exact mechanism) and that could take months but it would usually resolve it and get someone out who was playing games, but now if that gets removed the dodgy tenant could string things along for years.

There are agencies and things like FB groups that will advise you how to screw your landlord and keep things stringing along without paying properly.

Landlords with just a few properties are selling up, big landlord companies are buying more and laughing all the way to the bank, they can afford the odd bad tenant and they have the overheads to deal with the legal dramas, especially now rents are going through the roof.

Haven't the tax rules changed as well?

I've got friends that work out here most of the year so used to rent their house in the south west out whilst here for the winter. But apparently even if everything goes to plan, they actually make no money on it and there is the risk of a bad tennant/place needing repairs etc

[Mr. Dazzle]

Yeah there are several tax changes either in the works or afoot AFAIK. More than one user in here has posted about their own experience of it.

IIRC the big one is the fact you can no longer deduct mortgage interest from your taxable earnings?

[DefTrap]

I know a few people who are switching from letting to AirBnB - one of them is even considering moving out for months at a time. Easy money if you have the right place in the right area.
My SiL did it while they were abroad and waiting for their house to sell