Inflation

[Count Steer]

And perhaps is the sensible way to go - with less environmental impact. The Covid pandemic certainly hinted at why "buy local" was a good idea. TBH most countries are perfectly able to grow enough food for their populations ( in the West).
Our issue has been the proliferation of "choice" driven by supermarket profit lines to bring us avocados and courgettes all year round.
It's about time we embraced "seasonal" again.

Grow local is fine if there are people willing to pick local, and we've seen the issue there. Inflation has been managed in part by exporting labour requirements to low cost locations, so a return to home country manufacturing will put an immediate upward pressure on prices, and then on wages, and then again on prices.

True. We could be heading back to the 50s when the % spend on food of the average household was waaaaay higher than it is now. After food, energy and travel there's going to be less to spend on imported 'luxuries' (and tat). Maybe the age of consumption is coming to an end...sell those Amazon shares!! (Invest in agricultural automation ).

[Horse]

(Invest in agricultural automation ).

Which is already a decade ahead of 'road' automation.

[Count Steer]

(Invest in agricultural automation ).

Which is already a decade ahead of 'road' automation.

Yup. I don't think we're going to have a problem with turnips or carrots. 'Luxury' stuff like asparagus probably isn't too big a problem and they seem to manage to keep the supply of UK toms going. Maybe soft fruit like strawberries will become a bit more 'luxe'. If cheap labour is an issue they'll either grow mechanically handleable crops or bung up the price. Food staples should be OK and I guess we'll still import from the EU...at a price. (Spanish drivers are/have been on strike - not that we heard much about it.)

[Cousin Jack]

Grow local is fine if there are people willing to pick local, and we've seen the issue there. Inflation has been managed in part by exporting labour requirements to low cost locations, so a return to home country manufacturing will put an immediate upward pressure on prices, and then on wages, and then again on prices.

Perhaps time to re-examine the benefit system to make the alternatives to employment a bit less attractive?

I'm not saying that we go all draconian, but some people do have unreasonable expectations of employment, and if they can't be warm and comfortable, sat down, and have time off every time they feel like it they expect the benefit system to kick in.

[Horse]

Grow local is fine if there are people willing to pick local, and we've seen the issue there. Inflation has been managed in part by exporting labour requirements to low cost locations, so a return to home country manufacturing will put an immediate upward pressure on prices, and then on wages, and then again on prices.

Perhaps time to re-examine the benefit system to make the alternatives to employment a bit less attractive?

Will that work if the 'capable of work' benefits claimants live elsewhere? Especially if there is no affordable accommodation where you need them to be.

[Count Steer]

Grow local is fine if there are people willing to pick local, and we've seen the issue there. Inflation has been managed in part by exporting labour requirements to low cost locations, so a return to home country manufacturing will put an immediate upward pressure on prices, and then on wages, and then again on prices.

Perhaps time to re-examine the benefit system to make the alternatives to employment a bit less attractive?

I'm not saying that we go all draconian, but some people do have unreasonable expectations of employment, and if they can't be warm and comfortable, sat down, and have time off every time they feel like it they expect the benefit system to kick in.

Hmm. We already have people in what you'd think of as reasonable work that need to use food banks. I'm not sure that starving people into work will fly any more Jack. I think we're heading back to the 50s, not the times of serfdom. How about encouraging people into work by paying a decent wage? If it means not growing stuff that needs cheap labour, maybe we'll have to eat something else.

Sure there are bone-idle loafers, but a lot of people who aren't would get swept in too.

Anyway, we probably won't have the money to pay benefits if successive governments cock things up so it's moot.

[Count Steer]

Grow local is fine if there are people willing to pick local, and we've seen the issue there. Inflation has been managed in part by exporting labour requirements to low cost locations, so a return to home country manufacturing will put an immediate upward pressure on prices, and then on wages, and then again on prices.

Perhaps time to re-examine the benefit system to make the alternatives to employment a bit less attractive?

Will that work if the 'capable of work' benefits claimants live elsewhere? Especially if there is no affordable accommodation where you need them to be.

Slight side-step but last week's Sat FT had an article about one of the first Amazon mega-depots in a mining town - with a power station, both of which shut down. They bussed people in to supplement the local workforce, on temporary contracts, at 1p over the minimum wage and encouraged staff turnover. So, no issues with getting cheap labour, for 10 years. Now it's getting more difficult because people can get 'better' jobs (not necessarily better paid). They've had to change working practices to make the jobs more attractive. Lot of cash also gone into automation so fewer people needed to do more box shifting too.

As suggested, agriculture may need to make the work more attractive, automate more - and/or grow something different.

[slowsider]

(Invest in agricultural automation ).

Which is already a decade ahead of 'road' automation.

Yup. I don't think we're going to have a problem with turnips or carrots. 'Luxury' stuff like asparagus probably isn't too big a problem and they seem to manage to keep the supply of UK toms going. Maybe soft fruit like strawberries will become a bit more 'luxe'. If cheap labour is an issue they'll either grow mechanically handleable crops or bung up the price. Food staples should be OK and I guess we'll still import from the EU...at a price. (Spanish drivers are/have been on strike - not that we heard much about it.)

Tomato farmers were on the news complaining about gas prices. Greenhouses won't heat themselves apparently.

[slowsider]

Grow local is fine if there are people willing to pick local, and we've seen the issue there. Inflation has been managed in part by exporting labour requirements to low cost locations, so a return to home country manufacturing will put an immediate upward pressure on prices, and then on wages, and then again on prices.

Perhaps time to re-examine the benefit system to make the alternatives to employment a bit less attractive?

I'm not saying that we go all draconian, but some people do have unreasonable expectations of employment, and if they can't be warm and comfortable, sat down, and have time off every time they feel like it they expect the benefit system to kick in.

The undeserving poor will always be with us
You've a bigger problem from people expecting to make more money from capital more quickly than than they can earn from labour.

[Count Steer]

Which is already a decade ahead of 'road' automation.

Yup. I don't think we're going to have a problem with turnips or carrots. 'Luxury' stuff like asparagus probably isn't too big a problem and they seem to manage to keep the supply of UK toms going. Maybe soft fruit like strawberries will become a bit more 'luxe'. If cheap labour is an issue they'll either grow mechanically handleable crops or bung up the price. Food staples should be OK and I guess we'll still import from the EU...at a price. (Spanish drivers are/have been on strike - not that we heard much about it.)

Tomato farmers were on the news complaining about gas prices. Greenhouses won't heat themselves apparently.

My dad grew toms in his unheated greenhouse every year. He just grew them in season. If people want out of season stuff it's going to cost more either as an import or from a heated greenhouse. We'd better get used to spuds and turnips in January.

[Cousin Jack]

Will that work if the 'capable of work' benefits claimants live elsewhere? Especially if there is no affordable accommodation where you need them to be.

It's not going to solve all the problems, and expecting people to move for a temporary job is unrealistic, but far too many people set unrealistic limits on what they can or will do. IMO that's OK, but for a limited period only, after that benefit should be conditional on being flexible. As I said, I am not suggesting draconian stuff.

[Cousin Jack]

Slight side-step but last week's Sat FT had an article about one of the first Amazon mega-depots in a mining town - with a power station, both of which shut down. They bussed people in to supplement the local workforce, on temporary contracts, at 1p over the minimum wage and encouraged staff turnover. So, no issues with getting cheap labour, for 10 years. Now it's getting more difficult because people can get 'better' jobs (not necessarily better paid). They've had to change working practices to make the jobs more attractive. Lot of cash also gone into automation so fewer people needed to do more box shifting too.

As suggested, agriculture may need to make the work more attractive, automate more - and/or grow something different.

That too. Too many employers have been relying on cheap labour from Eastern Europe. More automation, better conditions and realistic pay are all part of the solution.

[Count Steer]

I found the figures. In the UK we spend 10-17% of the household budget on food. (The higher % is for the poorest families). In the 50s it was 30%. I guess it will head that way again...unless it gets swamped by the rising costs for heating, cooking etc. We really have had cheap (too cheap?) food. Unfortunately, crap food like 80p frozen pizzas, is cheaper than 'proper' food. (Food banks can't shift spuds because they take too much electric/gas to cook...and yes, some people can't be bothered/don't know how but lots can/do).

[Bike Breaker]

And perhaps is the sensible way to go - with less environmental impact. The Covid pandemic certainly hinted at why "buy local" was a good idea. TBH most countries are perfectly able to grow enough food for their populations ( in the West).
Our issue has been the proliferation of "choice" driven by supermarket profit lines to bring us avocados and courgettes all year round.
It's about time we embraced "seasonal" again.

GettyImages-90768818-fdbf7c6.jpg (333.77 KiB) Viewed 483 times

[wheelnut]

We'll crank up activity in the North Sea obvs (hopefully not losing control of it like we did by selling it off to foreign interests) but I wonder if agriculture and manufacturing is going to be given a big boost? Job creation would nice...proper jobs, not box shifting.

Interesting times.

Put that together with the growth in China leading to increased labour costs and shipping costs perhaps making it less attractive for western manufacturers causing manufacturing to move back home?

[Horse]

perhaps making it less attractive for western manufacturers causing manufacturing to move back home?

Moving to rebuild manufacturing would be a phenomenal task. What's the betting that most manufacturing robots are made in China?

[wheelnut]

Moving to rebuild manufacturing would be a phenomenal task. What's the betting that most manufacturing robots are made in China?

Yes and no, if it happens then it would likely happen piecemeal. One manufacturer at a time.

[Mussels]

Public opinion could move factories, if consumers start looking for non Chinese goods then suppliers might think paying slightly more is worth it.
I know I can't avoid Chinese stuff entirely but I am now taking more interest in alternatives. I don't mind buying stuff from abroad but I would rather one country can't hold everyone else to ransom, Covid highlighted that before Russia kicked off.

[Count Steer]

Moving to rebuild manufacturing would be a phenomenal task. What's the betting that most manufacturing robots are made in China?

Yes and no, if it happens then it would likely happen piecemeal. One manufacturer at a time.

It's not going to happen overnight, that's for sure! IIRC the big economic shifts go in roughly 20 year cycles. (May be quicker now though). Skilled labour has been generally expensive but technology/automation and the availability of greater numbers of suitable people ie educated to a certain level but with reduced expectation of 'job for life', salary escalators, 'perks' etc should help. (If graduates will make coffee and pack boxes they may like making stuff if the pay is a bit better).

Probably not going to see a great revival of metal bashing or a textile industry knocking out £1 T-shirts - just more stuff made here that's used here - which would probably be easier if 'here' was the EU but I don't think I'll open that can of worms again.

[Screwdriver]

We all know what happens at the end in a game of Monopoly. Inevitably someone ends up with all the money. That scenario is baked into the fundamental structure of our capitalist society. I think we are beginning to see that play out.