Stealth Omicron

[Horse]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59895598

About 1.3 million people in the UK have "long Covid", symptoms lasting more than four weeks after an initial infection, an Office for National Statistics survey suggests.

Of those, 892,000 (70%) first caught the virus at least 12 weeks ago and 506,000 (40%) at least a year ago.

Not quite 'meh'. The person I knew who suffered badly was still having treatment 8 months later.

The people I know have long covid from the first variant.

The people who suffer now ...

... will have 'not very long' covid. Pretty much impossible to prove long-term suffering as a result of something they have only contracted in the last few weeks and was only identified 6 weeks ago!

Next concern is whether it's the virus that's milder in effects (you've stated that a few times?) or that the effects are reduced by vaccines. If the latter, we know that vaccine efficiency reduces over time.

[Noggin]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59895598

About 1.3 million people in the UK have "long Covid", symptoms lasting more than four weeks after an initial infection, an Office for National Statistics survey suggests.

Of those, 892,000 (70%) first caught the virus at least 12 weeks ago and 506,000 (40%) at least a year ago.

Not quite 'meh'. The person I knew who suffered badly was still having treatment 8 months later.

The people I know have long covid from the first variant.

The people who suffer now ...

... will have 'not very long' covid. Pretty much impossible to prove long-term suffering as a result of something they have only contracted in the last few weeks and was only identified 6 weeks ago!

Next concern is whether it's the virus that's milder in effects (you've stated that a few times?) or that the effects are reduced by vaccines. If the latter, we know that vaccine efficiency reduces over time.

And the flu vaccine is changed every year, so I'm sure that will be possible with the Covid vaccine

And yes, the newest is only a few weeks old. But since the middle one (can't remember the name) people have not been getting, in general, the same length of Long Covid. Someone on here had similar issues but recovered after a few weeks. The people that had the original virus and suffered are still suffering, not recovering in 6-8 weeks


So, all you like, but everything I read suggests the later variants have been weaker. And since flu vaccines are changed, can't the covid vaccines do the same??

[Horse]

And the flu vaccine is changed every year, so I'm sure that will be possible with the Covid vaccine

As was pointed out in this or the other thread, someone from AZ said "we can't keep vaccinating the whole world". Yes, it's probably ('maybe'? I don't know) like changing the formula of the flu jab (don't they each year make a best guess of three variants to include?), but we're already up to consideration of a fourth covid jab for the vulnerable, in just about a year. I have no idea whether a 'longer lasting' (so annual) covid jab is feasible. Was the apparently rapid decline of the covid jabs expected, how does that compare with flu jabs? I don't know.

And yes, the newest is only a few weeks old. But since the middle one (can't remember the name) people have not been getting, in general, the same length of Long Covid.

Delta (Kent)

You may be right but, as with omicron, is that due to vaccination efficiency? Back to square one, boosters every few weeks.

So, all you like, but everything I read suggests the later variants have been weaker.

Until this morning, I probably would have agreed. But an expert (of some sort, possibly a virologist) being interviewed on radio strenuously made the point that this variant isn't weaker. (BBC Berks, about 9:15ish, if you want to listen).

Perhaps (eg SA) in some countries the effects are lesser - but are they directly comparable with here?

Also worth noting that, besides vaccines, there have been some dramatic innovations in treatment.

And since flu vaccines are changed, can't the covid vaccines do the same??

I don't know. I've said that a lot. With a lot of this, does anyone actually know.

[Horse]

And yes, the newest is only a few weeks old. But since the middle one (can't remember the name) people have not been getting, in general, the same length of Long Covid.

Delta (Kent)

You may be right but, as with omicron, is that due to vaccination efficiency? Back to square one, boosters every few weeks.

So, all you like, but everything I read suggests the later variants have been weaker.

Until this morning, I probably would have agreed. But an expert (of some sort, possibly a virologist) being interviewed on radio strenuously made the point that this variant isn't weaker.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59901547

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned against describing the Omicron variant as mild, saying it is killing people across the world.

Recent studies suggest that Omicron is less likely to make people seriously ill than previous Covid variants.

But the record number of people catching it has left health systems under severe pressure, said WHO chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

[Supermofo]

Got to admit I'm really bored with the Covid thing now. I'll wear a mask and test etc and I've had my booster but I just want to get back to something like normal life. Please

well you say that... until you get it and then 6 months later you can't even walk up the stairs due to the long-term effects ? Or until Mrs Mofo is one of the exceptionally unluckly ones who drops dead...

Then the game changes, the goalposts move and Covid becomes far more real.

Sure, both of them are unlikely.... but personally... i'd rather not find out.

OK so we all hide, till when? What's the end plan?

How does it becoming more real change anything? I'm triple jabbed, I wear masks and in the last 2 years I've massively restricted my social contact. Short of becoming a hermit there's little more I can do. And I still caught it eventually. I got it mild Luckily but it might have killed it me but there's fuck all I can do to influence that bit. I can try not to get it, but I've done that already.


Like you I didn't want to find out either but I did. The reality of covid today is you have a miniscule chance of not catching it in your lifetime. Its now as transmissible as a cold.

[Horse]

My guess is that a lot of those people have other complicating factors, like elderly, overweight or unfit, etc. In fact the latter two are probably present in the vast majority (if not all) cases.

That may the UK's 'experience', but I don't know how that compares against other countries. Which - guessing - also has implications for omicron. For example, if it originated in SA and they suggest its effects are milder, how do their demographics compare to ours, etc.?

Perhaps one of the long-term outcomes from all this will be a change in how we view life expectancy- literally not expect to live so long or so well.

One of the people I know who contracted covid about a year ago was a Cumbrian fell runner. She could hardly walk for a long while after, let alone run. We haven't talked recently so I don't know whether she's back to 100%.

[weeksy]

OK so we all hide, till when? What's the end plan?

I dunno mate. We all have thoughts and ideas that are different there as this thread shows. Different perspectives on both the disease, the cure and the restrictions. Any answer i can give you is only the answer for me, not for you.

[irie]

OK so we all hide, till when? What's the end plan?

I dunno mate. We all have thoughts and ideas that are different there as this thread shows. Different perspectives on both the disease, the cure and the restrictions. Any answer i can give you is only the answer for me, not for you.

Agree with you. Individuals must be free to decide what risk levels they are prepared to accept and to live their lives accordingly. This means being free of proscriptive measures which the more risk averse might wish to impose to protect themselves.

Obviously, this means that the risk averse will have to protect themselves and accept any downsides of doing so, as will the less risk averse have to accept any downsides resulting from their risk taking.

[weeksy]

OK so we all hide, till when? What's the end plan?

I dunno mate. We all have thoughts and ideas that are different there as this thread shows. Different perspectives on both the disease, the cure and the restrictions. Any answer i can give you is only the answer for me, not for you.

Agree with you. Individuals must be free to decide what risk levels they are prepared to accept and to live their lives accordingly. This means being free of proscriptive measures which the more risk averse might wish to impose to protect themselves.

Obviously, the risk averse will have to protect themselves and accept any downsides of doing so as will the less risk averse have to accept any downsides resulting from their risk taking

Not sure you do... because what you said isn't quite what i said.... you seem to have decided more about what i think than i did in my post

[Noggin]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59901547

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned against describing the Omicron variant as mild, saying it is killing people across the world.

Recent studies suggest that Omicron is less likely to make people seriously ill than previous Covid variants.

But the record number of people catching it has left health systems under severe pressure, said WHO chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

So does flu. But since Covid, no one is mentioning how many are dying from 'normal' flu. Or from all the other life threatening illnesses that now aren't treated because Covid (and the NHS is basically broken due to Covid)

Once everyone has had it they'll either be dead or meh about it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59895598

About 1.3 million people in the UK have "long Covid", symptoms lasting more than four weeks after an initial infection, an Office for National Statistics survey suggests.

Of those, 892,000 (70%) first caught the virus at least 12 weeks ago and 506,000 (40%) at least a year ago.

Not quite 'meh'. The person I knew who suffered badly was still having treatment 8 months later.

My guess is that a lot of those people have other complicating factors, like elderly, overweight or unfit, etc. In fact the latter two are probably present in the vast majority (if not all) cases. If you can't get your heart rate up to 75% max and keep it there for 30 mins without keeling over normally, then any nasty respiratory virus, or anything that damages your ability to circulate oxygen throughout your body, is going to flatten you. If you combine that with a sedentary lifestyle and being overweight, then it's probably never going away - unless you push your body through it and get it fit again.

And the other thing is that no one really knows how long 'long covid' will last for, my symptoms lasted for 18 months and then miraculously disappeared in a light-switch moment where I went from not being able to run 1km without being dizzy and out of breath, to running 6km a couple of days later and feeling like I was back to normal.
I'm convinced that if I had sat back and not pushed through that fitness barrier then I'd have had it forever. I battered away for six months getting dizzy and feeling wretched, running 4-5 times a week, until my body got back to normal.

I think I'm a weirdo because I was able to get my vaccines early due to being old and fat - 50+ (just!) and high BMI (in the obese bracket apparently)

However, neither time I had the virus did it seem to give me any hassle. Maybe genetics have worked in my favour. Maybe other things were higher up in the firing line in my system (menopause - untreated the first time/depression/totally being wiped out from a horrible 6 six months/3 year, the first time, of struggle with injury) - overall I think I'm pretty tough and healthy.

Equally, despite not being fit to look at (people do tend to judge on size!), my recovery rate from exercise has always surprised other sports people and I am relatively fit (as far as I was able to be in the last four years). So whilst the 'old and fat' tag was useful to get the vaccine, I'm not convinced I really fit that bracket properly!! LOL

I do know that one of my friends with long covid was overweight and unfit and although she's continued to go about 'normal' life as best she can she hasn't made a huge amount of effort to 'push though' (for women of a certain age, it's been talked about that various things can help, which I've shared with her to no avail; also, Vit D and it's cofactors have shown to be helpful - but again, not being used by this person). Despite that she is getting better than she was. But this is just a sample of one, so obviously I don't hold the 'getting better slowly' as something that will happen to all!


Who knows? Everyone is just guessing and I'm not saying that what I think is right. But it is one opinion and one that fits with a lot of people where I live. I don't know anyone for having a different one but I do just want work and life to go back to much closer to normal than it currently is!

[weeksy]

But it is one opinion and one that fits with a lot of people where I live. I don't know anyone for having a different one but I do just want work and life to go back to much closer to normal than it currently is!

But you're going to get that a lot... you and most of the people you speak to and associate with have a lot in common, so you'll get confirmation bias as your wants and your needs are similar to theirs. In the same way Potter has his, Irie has his and I have mine... We as humans live and associate in little bubbles of similar humans, needs and requirements.

[irie]

I dunno mate. We all have thoughts and ideas that are different there as this thread shows. Different perspectives on both the disease, the cure and the restrictions. Any answer i can give you is only the answer for me, not for you.

Agree with you. Individuals must be free to decide what risk levels they are prepared to accept and to live their lives accordingly. This means being free of proscriptive measures which the more risk averse might wish to impose to protect themselves.

Obviously, the risk averse will have to protect themselves and accept any downsides of doing so as will the less risk averse have to accept any downsides resulting from their risk taking

Not sure you do... because what you said isn't quite what i said.... you seem to have decided more about what i think than i did in my post

What in my above post do you take issue with and why?

[weeksy]

Agree with you. Individuals must be free to decide what risk levels they are prepared to accept and to live their lives accordingly. This means being free of proscriptive measures which the more risk averse might wish to impose to protect themselves.

Obviously, the risk averse will have to protect themselves and accept any downsides of doing so as will the less risk averse have to accept any downsides resulting from their risk taking

Not sure you do... because what you said isn't quite what i said.... you seem to have decided more about what i think than i did in my post

What in my post do you take issue with and why?

Individuals must be free to decide what risk levels they are prepared to accept and to live their lives accordingly. This means being free of proscriptive measures which the more risk averse might wish to impose to protect themselves

That bit.... you're implying that i think restrictions should be lifted and people get to decide how they play it themselves.... which isn't anything like what i said.

I said that people have different perspectives and different ideas upon what's right/wrong. I never said they should be allowed to act on them and make their own decisions which is what it seems to have read to you.

[irie]

Not sure you do... because what you said isn't quite what i said.... you seem to have decided more about what i think than i did in my post

What in my post do you take issue with and why?

Individuals must be free to decide what risk levels they are prepared to accept and to live their lives accordingly. This means being free of proscriptive measures which the more risk averse might wish to impose to protect themselves

That bit.... you're implying that i think restrictions should be lifted and people get to decide how they play it themselves.... which isn't anything like what i said.

I said that people have different perspectives and different ideas upon what's right/wrong. I never said they should be allowed to act on them and make their own decisions which is what it seems to have read to you.

What decisions should people be able to make and act on, and what decisions should they not be able to act on?

[weeksy]

What decisions should people be able to make and act on, and what decisions should they not be able to act on?

Well, the simple answer is, that depends on what rules have been laid out by the people in charge

But clearly you're not likely to agree with that, so i don't know where we're going to find a common ground on this.

[Saga Lout]

What decisions should people be able to make and act on, and what decisions should they not be able to act on?

Well, the simple answer is, that depends on what rules have been laid out by the people in charge

But clearly you're not likely to agree with that, so i don't know where we're going to find a common ground on this.

Because the people in charge are so much smarter than the rest of us?

They are pandering to the risk averse when they should be acting for everybody. Once it was clear that COVID is a disease that predominantly attacks the old and otherwise vulnerable, the rest of you should have been encouraged to get on with your lives and those of us who are old or with compromised immune systems should have been advised, and if necessary helped, to shield themselves.

[weeksy]

What decisions should people be able to make and act on, and what decisions should they not be able to act on?

Well, the simple answer is, that depends on what rules have been laid out by the people in charge

But clearly you're not likely to agree with that, so i don't know where we're going to find a common ground on this.

Because the people in charge are so much smarter than the rest of us?

They are pandering to the risk averse when they should be acting for everybody. Once it was clear that COVID is a disease that predominantly attacks the old and otherwise vulnerable, the rest of you should have been encouraged to get on with your lives and those of us who are old or with compromised immune systems should have been advised, and if necessary helped, to shield themselves.

As i say.... we're all going to have different opinions.

[Noggin]

But it is one opinion and one that fits with a lot of people where I live. I don't know anyone for having a different one but I do just want work and life to go back to much closer to normal than it currently is!

But you're going to get that a lot... you and most of the people you speak to and associate with have a lot in common, so you'll get confirmation bias as your wants and your needs are similar to theirs. In the same way Potter has his, Irie has his and I have mine... We as humans live and associate in little bubbles of similar humans, needs and requirements.

I get that. We all speak from where we are. We are being decimated by the restrictions. But that's because I live somewhere that relies fully on tourists
I do understand that others won't feel the same way because they live in a different place/way.

It doesn't make each persons view less. But it isn't worth arguing too much about. Discussing, but not arguing! (Fine line, I know! )

[irie]

What decisions should people be able to make and act on, and what decisions should they not be able to act on?

Well, the simple answer is, that depends on what rules have been laid out by the people in charge

But clearly you're not likely to agree with that, so i don't know where we're going to find a common ground on this.

There certainly is common ground - people are elected by the electorate who thus determine which people should be in charge. Therefore we have collective influence over what rules are laid down.

[irie]

.
So does flu. But since Covid, no one is mentioning how many are dying from 'normal' flu. Or from all the other life threatening illnesses that now aren't treated because Covid (and the NHS is basically broken due to Covid)

Good point.

Basically, Covid has out competed seasonal flu which is typically the cause of, or implicated in, tens of thousands of deaths every year. It'll be back and when it does you can bet that there will be many voices clamouring for Covidesque [sic] restrictions.