Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Mr Moofo]

It's arguably aggression by the west that makes most of the rest of the world shore up it's borders.
The US led coalition has ploughed through the Middle East and weren't as diplomatic as Putin.

Agreed. The US foreign policy as always been an aggressive one - esp under the Bush administration, with Cheney at the wheel

[Hoonercat]

To me it looks like:

1. Putin has underestimated the array of potential measures (both military and economic) which the West can take against him in the event of invading Ukraine

2. He has missed his weather invasion window.

In other words, he's fucked up.

It's anyone's guess what this psychopath does next.

No he hasn't. He's had western leaders running around like headless chickens panicking about an invasion that Putin insisted would not happen. He'll convince the Russian people that western leaders have made fools of themselves, intent on dictating what the Russian military can and cannot do within its own borders, feeding their victim mentality where the west in concerned. He'll have sown doubt into the minds of NATO as to whether giving Ukraine membership is a good move, and he'll have reminded former Soviet states that ties with the west may not be in their best interests, while showing that he's not the war-mongering tyrant that the west wants to portray him as.
Western people will see any pullback as Putin losing face, but Russians will see it differently once the Russian state-controlled media blitz is underway.

[Felix]

[Mr. Dazzle]

Well it's Wednesday and no headlines yet.

Slow start in the morning? It is cold after all.

[MingtheMerciless]

Constant daily visits by RC-135 Rivet Joints and Global Hawk Drones over Ukraine but today they also had an E-8C Joint Star and their primary mission is watching ground vehicles and forces.

[Mr. Dazzle]

ONe of the most interesting things for me is the shear amount of private satellite intelligence being posted in the news. I'm sure it doesn't even touch the sides of what the NRO can so with their uber-spy kit, but it's pretty impressive that private firms are photographing the area every day at high res.

[Hoonercat]

Western people will see any pullback as Putin losing face, but Russians will see it differently once the Russian state-controlled media blitz is underway.

Not just Russians, most non-western people I've spoken to wants Putin to push the west back, they're sick of their imperialistic policy and the way they roll over everything in their path as if they're not even the same species. No one wants Russia to take over the world, but if they manage to smack Uncle Sam in the mouth and make him think twice about complete domination then they'll be happy about it.

Back to where? Those NATO members bordering Russia (Estonia and Latvia) joined NATO because they see Russia as the biggest threat to their security. Like Ukraine, they are sovereign nations with the right to decide how their country is defended. Putin is doing an excellent job of reminding those Baltic states how right they were to have made the decision to join NATO.

[slowsider]

Western people will see any pullback as Putin losing face, but Russians will see it differently once the Russian state-controlled media blitz is underway.

Not just Russians, most non-western people I've spoken to wants Putin to push the west back, they're sick of their imperialistic policy and the way they roll over everything in their path as if they're not even the same species. No one wants Russia to take over the world, but if they manage to smack Uncle Sam in the mouth and make him think twice about complete domination then they'll be happy about it.

Back to where? Those NATO members bordering Russia (Estonia and Latvia) joined NATO because they see Russia as the biggest threat to their security. Like Ukraine, they are sovereign nations with the right to decide how their country is defended. Putin is doing an excellent job of reminding those Baltic states how right they were to have made the decision to join NATO.

US foreign policy armed the mujahideen against the Russians and supported Saddam against Iran. The consequences are still with us. 'Non western people' as Potter describes them have some justification in resenting their interference.

[Mr. Dazzle]

Dunno what you mean..."The West" have never arbitrarily invaded a country to remove the government and install one more to their liking. No siree.

[Hoonercat]

Not just Russians, most non-western people I've spoken to wants Putin to push the west back, they're sick of their imperialistic policy and the way they roll over everything in their path as if they're not even the same species. No one wants Russia to take over the world, but if they manage to smack Uncle Sam in the mouth and make him think twice about complete domination then they'll be happy about it.

Back to where? Those NATO members bordering Russia (Estonia and Latvia) joined NATO because they see Russia as the biggest threat to their security. Like Ukraine, they are sovereign nations with the right to decide how their country is defended. Putin is doing an excellent job of reminding those Baltic states how right they were to have made the decision to join NATO.

US foreign policy armed the mujahideen against the Russians and supported Saddam against Iran. The consequences are still with us. 'Non western people' as Potter describes them have some justification in resenting their interference.

I'm not disputing any of that, and certainly not a fan of US (in particular) foreign policy in the Middle East.

[Hoonercat]

Back to where?

Back to not infecting everything with their corroding influence and culture.

If you get the opportunity, watch Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom. It's someting of an eye-opener, and shows how strongly the Ukrainian people feel about being free of Russian influence and having closer ties to Europe.

[Supermofo]

If you get the opportunity, watch Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom. It's someting of an eye-opener, and shows how strongly the Ukrainian people feel about being free of Russian influence and having closer ties to Europe.

It's on my list of things to watch, although I became aware of it initially only through reading a heavily criticising review of it for the angle it took that ignored a lot of stuff.

The narrative on your side of the planet that the west equals good, whilst Russia equals bad, is so well accepted that it doesn't ever occur to most people that they're as heavily brainwashed as anyone on the other side.

I definitely wouldn't say the West are the good guys but
having spoken to a fair number of Poles I think they have no questions on Russia being anything but the bad guys. When I was in Poland a few years back most Poles really hate Russia with a passion. I've heard similar sentiments from people who've spoken to people in the Baltic States. And it's fair well publicised how surprised the Germans were when in large parts of the Ukraine when they were welcomed as liberators. Poor sods soon learned different though.

Personally I can see Russia's concerns but Putin is being a dick about it. This whole current crisis is about him more than anything for Russia in general.

[Mussels]

I wonder what China's neighbours make of all this? NPTO?

[irie]

If you get the opportunity, watch Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom. It's someting of an eye-opener, and shows how strongly the Ukrainian people feel about being free of Russian influence and having closer ties to Europe.

It's on my list of things to watch, although I became aware of it initially only through reading a heavily criticising review of it for the angle it took that ignored a lot of stuff.

The narrative on your side of the planet that the west equals good, whilst Russia equals bad, is so well accepted that it doesn't ever occur to most people that they're as heavily brainwashed as anyone on the other side.

Potter, to make these sorts of judgements you must be unaware of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances and the 1932-1933 Ukrainian Holodomor.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapes ... Assurances

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

[MingtheMerciless]

Dunno what you mean..."The West" have never arbitrarily invaded a country to remove the government and install one more to their liking. No siree.

We invaded to save ourselves from the "weapons of mass destruction"............oh wait...........er.......... He was a nasty evil man and needed replacing.

[Mr. Dazzle]

It was better back in the cold war, didn't even need to bother invading to change the government of another country.

[irie]

I have changed my mind and am reverting to my original position that Putin will indeed order an invasion of Ukraine. I believe he has interpreted the repeated warnings from NATO et.al. as signals of weakness and has now committed his forces beyond the point where they can now be withdrawn without a massive loss of face.

If Russia is effectively 'allowed' to annexe Ukraine then the next European states on the his list would be the ex USSR states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, perhaps followed by Finland. I believe that NATO and Western European warnings have effectively encouraged him to overplay his hand.

There has been little in the media about military deployments to the 'front lines' but I believe they have indeed been taking place (unreported) at a very high level from the Baltic states to Poland to the Black Sea. So if then he attacks he will find his forces stretched and picked off by a far superior USA and NATO military machine.

Plus of course economic measures and political intended to destroy the Russian economy.

Effectively Putin has been tempted into making a strategic mistake, and by evacuating all "Russian" citizens from the Donetsk region will also lose control of the region.

We shall see.

Edit: Donetsk

[MingtheMerciless]

Over Romania at present there is a KC-135 tanker flying racetrack orbits, nothing that has an active transponder has visited it.......

[Count Steer]

Over Romania at present there is a KC-135 tanker flying racetrack orbits, nothing that has an active transponder has visited it.......

A Global Hawk passed through that way recently - launched from the Med. Currently at 50kft/350kts parallel to the Russian border towards Donetsk. Be surprised if a remote piloted thing air refuels though...it can fly for 30hrs.

I assume, if I can 'see' it, they want it seen, ditto the tanker.

[Asian Boss]

I think he's got very little and will do fuck all. Because he knows he'll get a spanking if he does.