Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[irie]

Has been reported that before invading Ukraine Russia had foreign currency reserves of about $630bn, of which about two thirds was held in foreign bank accounts.

Sanctions have frozen the two thirds in foreign bank accounts leaving Russia with perhaps one third, say $210bn, to finance the invasion of Ukraine.

It is also reported that the war on Ukraine costs Russia about $15-20bn per day. So the $210bn would last at best 14 days before Russia runs out of money to finance the war. Any supplier to Russia will only do so for hard currency and not essentially worthless roubles.

The full scale invasion of Ukraine took place on 24th February, so count 5 days in February.

It is now 7th March, that's to date 12 days of war to be paid for.

So it looks like Russia will be out of money to finance the war by the end of this week. That could be a very dangerous time indeed ...

[JackyJoll]

End of the week? That doesn’t give me long to get out there and kick Ivan’s arse!

Hope this bad back of mine is better by then.

[Hoonercat]

Has been reported that before invading Ukraine Russia had foreign currency reserves of about $630bn, of which about two thirds was held in foreign bank accounts.

Sanctions have frozen the two thirds in foreign bank accounts leaving Russia with perhaps one third, say $210bn, to finance the invasion of Ukraine.

It is also reported that the war on Ukraine costs Russia about $15-20bn per day. So the $210bn would last at best 14 days before Russia runs out of money to finance the war. Any supplier to Russia will only do so for hard currency and not essentially worthless roubles.

The full scale invasion of Ukraine took place on 24th February, so count 5 days in February.

It is now 7th March, that's to date 12 days of war to be paid for.

So it looks like Russia will be out of money to finance the war by the end of this week. That could be a very dangerous time indeed ...

I've seen estimates from $2-$25 billion per day, which suggests that no one really has the slightest idea of the actual cost.

One estimate, from the Ukrainian-based Centre for Economic Recovery, a think tank close to Ukraine’s government, has estimated that first five days of the war may have cost Russia as much as $7 billion in direct military costs

This estimate included loss of troops and the loss of their economic input to the Russian economy over the next 40 years.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

What does Russia need to import to carry on it's invasion of Ukraine?
The Russians make their own weapons and are rich in resources like oil, gas, steel and lead.

[Mussels]

I had a look at Pravda this afternoon, there's a piece about western propoganda. It looks like they aren't printing anything that can be disproved so there's not a lot in there, I think this quote may have been a mistake as anyone can see it's a short list even though they replace 'are' with 'include'.

Those countries who have currently remained silent from hysterical condemnation, or supported Russian's actions include: China, India, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Cuba, Belarus and Nicaragua.

They have an article on how Ukraine refused humanitarian corridors but failed to mention those corridors only went towards Russia.

[Yambo]

I had a look at Pravda this afternoon, there's a piece about western propoganda. It looks like they aren't printing anything that can be disproved so there's not a lot in there, I think this quote may have been a mistake as anyone can see it's a short list even though they replace 'are' with 'include'.

Those countries who have currently remained silent from hysterical condemnation, or supported Russian's actions include: China, India, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Cuba, Belarus and Nicaragua.

They have an article on how Ukraine refused humanitarian corridors but failed to mention those corridors only went towards Russian concentration camps.

Fixed that for you.

[Mussels]

That did cross my mind, I can't see them allowing any contact with the natives.

[Bigyin]

That did cross my mind, I can't see them allowing any contact with the natives.

But any who did take the option will be filmed by Russian State TV crossing the border into mother Russia thus justifying the fiction of the special military operation liberating poor Ukranian citizens from their nazi oppressors

[Felix]

Starve them into submission. Fucked now Putin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60665877

[demographic]

Seems Priti Patel isn't doing herself any favours over obstructing refugees into the UK.
She's claiming they're all world beating yada yada but in reality theres only been 300 visas setup for the refugees where other European countries have just waived the need for visas full stop.
They she was caught lying yesterday and then tried to bullshit her way out.

Interesting to note that her parents were granted asylum after escaping from Uganda with Idi Amin (sp?) was being a twat but she's been pretty harsh on anyone escaping Syria, Afghanistan and now not really catching on fast about Ukraine either.

[irie]

How soon will Putin pull the plugs on gas to the EU? My guess is that when his troops are obviously being defeated in northern Ukraine he will become desperate and lash out. I give it max 2 weeks from now. Unless Germany hasn't pulled the plug before then, of course.

[Count Steer]

Seems Priti Patel isn't doing herself any favours over obstructing refugees into the UK.
She's claiming they're all world beating yada yada but in reality theres only been 300 visas setup for the refugees where other European countries have just waived the need for visas full stop.
They she was caught lying yesterday and then tried to bullshit her way out.

She even ducked the flak and sent an underling to face the music in Parliament. Her own side of the benches were pretty scathing with one saying that the lie about facilities in France was a resignation issue. (She won't resign of course, as she's already done that once over her secret meetings with Israeli lobbyists. One resignation is enough in any career eh? ).

[Mussels]

Putin has made an announcement that he won't be taking conscripts into Ukraine or calling up reservists, I'd expect that as he has a huge army so why is he recruiting mercenaries from Syria? Too many Russian deaths making him unpopular maybe.

And yes it's shocking that it's taking a few days to get people from France to England, especially as France is a dangerous war zone like Ukraine.

[irie]

Putin has made an announcement that he won't be taking conscripts into Ukraine ...

From what I can see there are already large numbers of Russian conscripts in Ukraine. Perhaps Putin really means no more than are already there, or being shipped back in wooden boxes?

[Screwdriver]

What practical steps we can take here to help the Ukrainian refugees?

[Potter]

There seems to be a bit more enthusiasm to bring in white Ukrainian refugees than there is Syrian or African ones.

[Mussels]

There seems to be a bit more enthusiasm to bring in white Ukrainian refugees than there is Syrian or African ones.

I just see the same faces as usual making those demands in the UK. In Europe it's probably because they share a border.

Lots of people like to play the race card whether it is justified or not

[Dodgy69]

Someone said the other day, these refugees are mainly women and children.

[Hoonercat]

There seems to be a bit more enthusiasm to bring in white Ukrainian refugees than there is Syrian or African ones.

Send 'em back, they're all economic migrants!!!
And they've got mobile phones so they can't be refugees!!!
And they've got nice shoes, look at their shoes!!!

[Noggin]

What practical steps we can take here to help the Ukrainian refugees?

Over here there are locals with contacts in the Ukraine or family/friends that have left and are refugees. As a result there are regular requests for certain sorts of things - originally mostly clothing and (also right at the beginning) pet food. Now there are more specifics - medicines, boots, foods.

What happens here as a community (across a lots of ski resorts and through the valley) is that there are collection points and a handful of people with large vans that drive to and from the refugee points and deliver what is needed.

I guess in this region it's a little easier to give direct and needed help as it's just a long drive. In the uk, I would imagine the way to go would be to find where the few refugees are based and the organiser and then find out what they actually need?

Not sure it's practical to send stuff from the uk anymore.

Apparently AirBnB have waived charges for bookings in the Ukraine, so if you do book, you are supporting someone who is still there - in theory, totally don't know for sure in practice. I have read that people have appreciated this as often they have taken in others that are homeless due to bombing or escaping. No idea how true this is but I hope it is true and that people can help in such a simple way