Inflation

[Yorick]

Bonds etc pay a smidge more than ISAs after tax implications.
But our UK accountant told us to go with ISAs not to cloudy the water as HM doesn't look at them

We're all 100% legal, just keeping heads under the parapet.

[Mr. Dazzle]

I pulled the trigger too early basically

Definitely too early! I've just had my 'easy access' savings rate increased again, it's within 0.25% of what I'm getting on a fixed term bond now

[MyLittleStudPony]

I pulled the trigger too early basically

Definitely too early! I've just had my 'easy access' savings rate increased again, it's within 0.25% of what I'm getting on a fixed term bond now

I wouldn't beat yourself up, it's a lottery. The fact you're saving and looking at interest rates etc means you're doing the right thing.

Anything I do is a good luck punt. That said, I will probably do one more 1 year fix next week and wait 3-9 months before doing any more.

I almost bought property with the money a few months ago which would have been a pretty poor choice with the benefit of hindsight. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!

[Mr. Dazzle]

I only did short bonds anyway, 'cause I fully expected it'd either go up, down or stay the same later this year.

I'm a fucking financial prophet

[Ant]

So, another rate rise, the banks are coining it in, literally.

Could we be on the way to a recession which would then see interest rates collapse?

[Wossname]

Yeah, we could. On the other hand, see Dazzle’s prediction above^^.

[gremlin]

The so-called smart money has priced in another 25bp rise before the year is out, then hold.

Make of that what you will, as free advice is worth precisely what you paid for it.

[Cousin Jack]

Why do some people assume that interest rates will fall to "normal" levels. In my lifetime returning to above 5% IS normal, the near-zero interlude was the aberration.

[Mr. Dazzle]

The so-called smart money has priced in another 25bp rise before the year is out, then hold.

Make of that what you will, as free advice is worth precisely what you paid for it.

That took me at least 8s to read, I only bill by the whole hour so expect my invoice shortly.

I suppose it probably took you longer than 8s to type so we'll call it even, but I'm robbing myself to do so.

[Ant]

I suppose I should hurry up and sell one of the houses, that way we'll be mortgage free, but if mortgages are expensive, will anyone buy it?

[cheb]

I suppose I should hurry up and sell one of the houses, that way we'll be mortgage free, but if mortgages are expensive, will anyone buy it?

Yes, if it's priced correctly for both buyer and seller.

[irie]

Some people probably think that not raising interest rates is good, but it isn't.

Whether it's good or bad depends on whether inflation has peaked, and whether you're a saver or a borrower, for example.

[irie]

Some people probably think that not raising interest rates is good, but it isn't.

Whether it's good or bad depends on whether inflation has peaked, and whether you're a saver or a borrower, for example.

I was thinking more bigger picture, a pound that gets hammered by the EUR and USD, plus an economy that drags itself lethargically out of a hole probably IMHO will be a worse one than an economy that gets shocked back into life.

There was a news article on the BBC yesterday from restaurant owners, event companies and holiday companies, saying there is no let up at all in customers or spending habits, people are still consistently spending money all through the month and their premises and bookings are packed.

Despite the noise from the few that are struggling, most people haven't felt the pinch at all yet, so they'll keep spending, buying fuel, food, booze, holidays, etc, their spending habits haven't changed at all and they're driving inflation, on top of a falling currency. That brief period didn't take anywhere near enough money out of the economy.

And in the background the BoE can't see this and are slowly stabbing the economy in the heart again, rather than shocking it into a healthy beat.

Are you saying that by not raising interest rates the BoE is "stabbing the economy in the heart again"?

[weeksy]

Are you saying that by not raising interest rates the BoE is "stabbing the economy in the heart again"?

Yes.
Once again they do not see the bigger picture, they did not see it when I started this thread and they don't see it now.
They make short term decisions to satisfy short term issues, they're not taking a long term view.

It's like being hungry and eating bad high fat food to satisfy your hunger, but slowly killing your heart.

maybe you need to ring them and explain

[irie]

maybe you need to ring them and explain

Even if I could get through to them on the phone they are not capable of understanding, if they were then the UK wouldn't be in such a shocking fiscal mess.

"Fiscal" means government revenue/taxes.

[gremlin]

maybe you need to ring them and explain

Even if I could get through to them on the phone they are not capable of understanding, if they were then the UK wouldn't be in such a shocking fiscal mess.

I reckon you and Mehmet Simsek should go out on the lash together. You've got a lot in common.

Turkey’s central bank hikes interest rate to 30%

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/21/turkeys ... rcent.html

[wheelnut]

maybe you need to ring them and explain

Even if I could get through to them on the phone they are not capable of understanding, if they were then the UK wouldn't be in such a shocking fiscal mess.

I reckon you and Mehmet Simsek should go out on the lash together. You've got a lot in common.

Turkey’s central bank hikes interest rate to 30%

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/21/turkeys ... rcent.html

They must have bound and gagged the president!

[gremlin]

It's interesting that Erdogan had, for many years, claimed that lowering interest rates would lead to a lowering of inflation, somewhat against the grain of conventional economic thinking, and slashed rates.

Well, how's that working out for ya now, Recep?

[ZRX61]

Over here we have Biden constantly talking about how *core inflation* is lower than when he caused it to skyrocket...

Core inflation is the term used when they omit to cost of food & energy from the calculations & is therefore completely fucking meaningless.... but it sounds good.

[gremlin]

I reckon you and Mehmet Simsek should go out on the lash together. You've got a lot in common.

Turkey’s central bank hikes interest rate to 30%

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/21/turkeys ... rcent.html

Taking 14 successive moves to get this far is almost as bad, and now they think they've fixed it.

I'll be a monkeys uncle if inflation doesn't rise and they have to hike interest rates again within the coming months.
Although you never know, they might just stay as ignorant and blind as they did when they were feeding it with QE for years.

Yeah. The QE bus rolled for waaaaay too long.

'Here have some free money...wait! Stop fucking spending it!'