Is Russia just about to invade Ukraine?

[Hoonercat]

A sobering commentary.



Tucker Carlson Talks To Colonel Douglas Macgregor About The Ukraine War

It's a pity they couldn't get someone who actually has some credibility. He stated this 3 days after the invasion

The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over, all of the Ukrainian troops there have been largely surrounded and cut off. You have a concentration down in the Southeast of 30 or 40,000 of them, and if they don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them

Lots of 'we know' (who is 'we'?) without a shred of evidence to back it up. He should stick to posting racial comments about Jews.

[Screwdriver]

Yeah, very difficult to pick out the truth from the opinions but isn’t that always the case? Especially in a war when disinformation and propaganda are tools of the trade.

It is difficult to be a dissenting voice of course so I doubt if Tucker had a great deal of choice who to interview. Clearly the mainstream media acts with one voice in support of the military industrial complex, a lot of very rich people are going to make a lot of money out of this. That’s not even news and sadly despite the MSM being so obviously biased by their owner/sponsors and (apparently) both “sides” of the US political parties also perfectly happy with this money spinner, it still does not guarantee any dissenting voices will not also have their own version of “the truth” which also may not correspond with the reality.

I guess we just have to pick the bones of whatever stories we may hear and try to form some sort of picture of what may be happening. I seriously can’t believe it is still going. When will it ever end and what does the end look like anyway?

[Hoonercat]

Yeah, very difficult to pick out the truth from the opinions but isn’t that always the case? Especially in a war when disinformation and propaganda are tools of the trade.

'We know' that 400,000 Ukrianians soldiers have died...50,000 amputees...'. That's not an opinion, it's a statement of fact. And given that no one outside the Ukraine and Russian military and govts have even a close approximation of casualties, it's probably safe to say his claims are bullshit.

A few other gems from MacGregor. This one came a fews days after his intial prediction

So, I would say another 10 days this should be completely over... I think the most heroic thing he could do right now is come to terms with reality. Neutralize Ukraine.

And a couple of weeks later in March

The war is really over for the Ukrainians. They have been grounded to bits. There’s no question about that despite what we report on our mainstream media.

July '22

The war, with the exception of Kharkiv and Odesa, as far as the Russians are concerned is largely over. There is no intention to do anything else because the Russians don’t have a very large army

Sept '22

The Ukrainian army is bled white, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops have been killed or wounded, Ukraine is really on the ropes

Probably not the most reliable source as far as the Russian-Ukraine was is concerned then...
He also appeared on RT in 2014 and called for the annexation of Donbas, shortly after Russia annexed Crimea. So not exactly impartial either.

[Screwdriver]

Is there such a thing as "a reliable source"? What are the accepted numbers? Accepted by who?

If a larger number of people believe something to be true, does that make it true?

Like I said, it is interesting to see both "sides" of an argument and I don't doubt for a moment that hyperbole is never confined to one or the other.

[Cousin Jack]

I am not certain which is worst.

The WW1/2 system, where you were only ever fed your own side's propaganda

or today's version where you are fed both side's propaganda, plus 98 other misinformed opinions as well.

[Hoonercat]

Is there such a thing as "a reliable source"? What are the accepted numbers? Accepted by who?

If a larger number of people believe something to be true, does that make it true?

Like I said, it is interesting to see both "sides" of an argument and I don't doubt for a moment that hyperbole is never confined to one or the other.

Personally I don't accept any of the quoted figures as being true. Both sides are likely to exaggerate enemy losses while playing down their own losses. Everyone else is just guessing or making up numbers.

[Potter]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217

"Ukraine gives no official toll of its war dead - the Ukrainian armed forces have reiterated that their war casualty numbers are a state secret - but Margo knows the losses are huge.

The figures remain classified. But US officials, quoted by the New York Times, recently put the number at 70,000 dead and as many as 120,000 injured. It is a staggering figure, from an armed forces estimated at only half a million strong."

So basically Russia has taken out 2/5ths of Ukraine's fighting force, and probably more.
And that's with the whole might of the western world supporting them.

[Screwdriver]

Neither side will be particularly keen to share their losses, even Russia would not like the world to find out how they have decimated their much smaller competition. My assumption was as soon as Russia had boots on the ground, the war was over bar the shouting.

But then the US get involved (as if Hunter Biden and creepy Joe weren't already syphoning off Ukraines oil and gas riches) and with their massively powerful intelligence gathering, they can keep this money making scheme going for all eternity. Russia had no answer early on to the fantastically precise intel which meant they had to change their strategy and the net effect being a massive slow down.

Under those circumstances, it's a stalemate, neither side can "win" and certainly the US do not appear to have any coherent answer to what their end goal is. My take is the industrial military complex are quite happy for this to continue in perpetuity. Until we run out of Ukrainians.

My takeaway from the above video was:

Casualties are perhaps the only factor in determining the longevity of this proxy war and the US are much more likely to run out of proxies (Ukrainians) before Russia do.

It appears to be an accepted consequence of this war that Zelensky is going to be a very rich man at the end of it. US companies are lining up to secure massive rebuild contracts (assuming the US "wins". They are buying those contracts from Zelensky.

Arms shipments are sporadic at best and there were some questions over the quality and quantity of those shipments, plus the inevitable poaching by arms traders and the corrupt Ukrainian receivers (lit.) of those weapons. On top of that, the massive amounts of cash being shovelled over to Ukraine are simply unaccounted for. There is literally no accounting for where all that money is going - despite the Senate requesting an audit. None is forthcoming.

What a nightmare. Putin has apparently booby trapped the largest nuclear power station in Europe so even if this does not escalate to a nuclear conflict, it still has the potential for a nuclear disaster...

[Hoonercat]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217

"Ukraine gives no official toll of its war dead - the Ukrainian armed forces have reiterated that their war casualty numbers are a state secret - but Margo knows the losses are huge.

The figures remain classified. But US officials, quoted by the New York Times, recently put the number at 70,000 dead and as many as 120,000 injured. It is a staggering figure, from an armed forces estimated at only half a million strong."

So basically Russia has taken out 2/5ths of Ukraine's fighting force, and probably more.
And that's with the whole might of the western world supporting them.

Reuters also ran the story, and added that the same officials claimed 300,000 Russian casualties. If you believe those figures, Ukraine has pretty much taken out Russia's initial invasion force, twice over, which equates to about 1/3rd of Russia's active military personel. But, for both sets of figures, that's a big 'if'

The officials cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures

[Hoonercat]

My takeaway from the above video was:

From an army of 500,000, he claims 400,000 dead, 40-50,000 amputees and no idea of other casualties (which tend to be alot higher than deaths). From a man who has continuously, since the start of the war, claimed that the Ukraine army is finished. And yet, despite the entire Ukraine army being (more than) wiped out (repeatedly) and the country there for the taking, the Russians are still on the defensive
And you took something away from that video? Isn't the above enough to set your alarm bells ringing?

[Screwdriver]

My takeaway from the above video was:

From an army of 500,000, he claims 400,000 dead, 40-50,000 amputees and no idea of other casualties (which tend to be alot higher than deaths). From a man who has continuously, since the start of the war, claimed that the Ukraine army is finished. And yet, despite the entire Ukraine army being (more than) wiped out (repeatedly) and the country there for the taking, the Russians are still on the defensive
And you took something away from that video? Isn't the above enough to set your alarm bells ringing?

Well, yes. If you hadn't edited out the end of my statement you would have seen this:

Casualties are perhaps the only factor in determining the longevity of this proxy war and the US are much more likely to run out of proxies (Ukrainians) before Russia do.

I do not take any of these videos at face value and while you can (and should) point out some of the obvious exaggerations or hyperbole (as I said before), using a variety of sources especially from opposite sides of the argument, you can draw your own opinion from between the lies damned lies and statistics on offer.

<edit> not forgetting you should compare like with like since Russia are clearly throwing conscripts into the meat grinder. You say 500k troops when Reuters et.al. suggest 540k combined army/air and 900k reservists (military training within 5 years). Why did you pick the lower number and not the total forces available?

[Screwdriver]

Try this one:



I know this chap from his other (science) channel. He tends to only go with demonstrable well sourced information. There's no bottom line number but an interesting treatise on how difficult it will be to establish a figure.

[Hoonercat]

My takeaway from the above video was:

From an army of 500,000, he claims 400,000 dead, 40-50,000 amputees and no idea of other casualties (which tend to be alot higher than deaths). From a man who has continuously, since the start of the war, claimed that the Ukraine army is finished. And yet, despite the entire Ukraine army being (more than) wiped out (repeatedly) and the country there for the taking, the Russians are still on the defensive
And you took something away from that video? Isn't the above enough to set your alarm bells ringing?

Well, yes. If you hadn't edited out the end of my statement you would have seen this:

Casualties are perhaps the only factor in determining the longevity of this proxy war and the US are much more likely to run out of proxies (Ukrainians) before Russia do.

I do not take any of these videos at face value and while you can (and should) point out some of the obvious exaggerations or hyperbole (as I said before), using a variety of sources especially from opposite sides of the argument, you can draw your own opinion from between the lies damned lies and statistics on offer.

<edit> not forgetting you should compare like with like since Russia are clearly throwing conscripts into the meat grinder. You say 500k troops when Reuters et.al. suggest 540k combined army/air and 900k reservists (military training within 5 years). Why did you pick the lower number and not the total forces available?

Because that's the 2023 figure given by Global Firepower, Statista and, most importantly, Potter, rather than using a mainstream media publication given your reluctance to believe anything they say. 200k active, 250k reserve, 50k Paramilitary. My bad for ommiting the navy and air force, which have both been practically redundant other than directing drones.

[Screwdriver]

But that is just the point isn't it? The figures, any figures will be estimates at best and it is (I suggest) impossible to say where the truth lies. So if you want to find low numbers that's easy enough to do but other numbers are available. Like these:

https://armedforces.eu/compare/country_ ... _vs_Russia

Remembering of course that the nation under attack is much more likely to be able to find willing recruits than the aggressor who have resorted to releasing criminals and enforced conscription to bump up the numbers. Whatever they are.

[Yorick]

Seems he was flown to St Petersburg for the funeral today.
Surprised they didn't shoot him down again to make sure

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66649570

[Screwdriver]

Interesting rebuttal to the Macgregor interview.

[Screwdriver]

At this very moment, our glorious commander, President Ursula Von Der Leyen is preparing the ground for the master plan. When she says "digital citizen", she is referring to the strategy for the future mankind as laid out by our masters at the World Economic Forum. Quite literally to brand each and every human at birth and for life with a unique identifier. You know, like a dog.

https://id2020.org

"Sponsored" by all of the richest people in the world. When I say sponsored, I mean, literally being paid for.

Well anyway, that's the plan. The Great Reset etc. That's the thing we should all remember about politicians; when we see a disaster, they see opportunity.

Putin is a monstrous thug of course. Bombing innocent citizens, blowing up shoe factories but the EU, the UK and the US are all just as bad, they're just being a lot more sneaky.

...and here we are. "provisional agreement on the establishment of the “European digital ID”

https://europeanconservative.com/articl ... igital-id/

I mean what the actual fuck! I would have been happier if this remained a "conspiracy theory".

Oh and why is this little gem buried among the fog of war? Well because this plan was hatched and deliberately hidden within the fog of war.

In context, UVdL was actually discussing the war in Ukraine and just slipped this little gem in. It is a tried and tested tactic to hide these sorts of political shenanigans and power grabbing manipulations when people are distracted by a crisis. As we also saw during the COVID pandemic and as we are seeing now with the W.H.O. (i.e. Billy Gates) still trying to grant themselves (himself!) authority over sovereign states.

[Screwdriver]

,
It wasn't 'informal', there were international representatives present to oversee and witness the negotiations. Why would NATO and Ukraine sign anything that would prevent Ukraine from ever joining without Russia's agreement to pull out of Ukraine in return? If, as you claim, the only reason for the invasion was the NATO issue, how can it be too little too late, he's getting exactly what he wanted? (or exactly what you think he wanted).

You said that Putin is carrying on with the invasion despite an offer of assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO. That is simply not true. There were discussions, negotiations etc. but no actual formal agreements. Without knowing the entire content of those negotiations we cannot know if any offer was sufficiently robust to satisfy Putin, ergo, we cannot say whether or not a veto of NATO membership was his prime objective.

I say it was. Other opinions are available.

I assume most of us will be watching/have watched the Tucker Carlson interview with Putin. Something that may cost him his livelihood if not his very life. I doubt if the CIA will be happy with such an intelligent well respected journalist running around trying to establish the truth. Our entire western "democracy" now appears to be more concerned with hiding it.

Anyhoo, just popped in to say "I told you so" and to have a flick back at some of the "lunatic" observations I had been making as DEADPOOL. Again, I am vindicated. I only picked the above argument since the broken promise regarding NATO is probably going to be the main talking point.

Not that I suggest Putin is entirely believable or even telling the truth but he's basically saying what I have been saying. From the horses mouth. NATO is the issue and there's no point talking to Biden because he is not making the decisions.

[weeksy]

That's nice

[Screwdriver]

That's nice

Oh. Have you watched the interview then?

I thought you were in the camp "none of this affects me"...