Covid restrictions - are you adhering or not?

[weeksy]

As framed the question was about a situation in which there are known and unknown unknowns so yes, I answered the question as framed. But if you require an answer to suit your zero risk proclivities then you should stay at home as you have previously said that you are doing.

The reason I wanted an answer is because you spend loads of time posting links without actually giving any insight, input, thoughts. It'd be nice to know if you agree, disagree, would so things differently or, well, whatever

If it is indeed purely precautionary then on the balance of evidence that I have seen then I would disagree.

You'd think they have access to more information than you?

What would you do instead and why?

[irie]

The reason I wanted an answer is because you spend loads of time posting links without actually giving any insight, input, thoughts. It'd be nice to know if you agree, disagree, would so things differently or, well, whatever

If it is indeed purely precautionary then on the balance of evidence that I have seen then I would disagree.

You'd think they have access to more information than you?

*** Of course, but the question is what is that information?

What would you do instead and why?

*** Because Omicron appears not to cause hospitalisation in the double jabbed and particularly boosted, I would let it circulate as it will do anyway and the unvaccinated will have to decide what is in their best interests. This virus will keep circulating in one form or another for the foreseeable future as does flu now, for example.

[weeksy]

If it is indeed purely precautionary then on the balance of evidence that I have seen then I would disagree.

You'd think they have access to more information than you?

*** Of course, but the question is what is that information?

What would you do instead and why?

*** Because Omicron appears not to cause hospitalisation in the double jabbed and particularly boosted, I would let it circulate as it will do anyway and the unvaccinated will have to decide what is in their best interests. This virus will keep circulating in one form or another for the foreseeable future as does flu now, for example.

And accept you have let people die if it happens? Could you sleep knowing that?

[irie]

You'd think they have access to more information than you?

*** Of course, but the question is what is that information?

What would you do instead and why?

*** Because Omicron appears not to cause hospitalisation in the double jabbed and particularly boosted, I would let it circulate as it will do anyway and the unvaccinated will have to decide what is in their best interests. This virus will keep circulating in one form or another for the foreseeable future as does flu now, for example.

And accept you have let people die if it happens? Could you sleep knowing that?

Their choice.

[wheelnut]

*** Because Omicron appears not to cause hospitalisation in the double jabbed and particularly boosted, I would let it circulate as it will do anyway and the unvaccinated will have to decide what is in their best interests. This virus will keep circulating in one form or another for the foreseeable future as does flu now, for example.

Although that’s hoped for, and would be great if that were the case and it out performs delta, there’s no evidence yet to suggest it is less virulent than delta.

That’s why the government are being cautious and trying to delay its introduction. Considering the flak they got for not closing down early as delta was introduced they are in the position of being criticised either way.

[irie]

*** Because Omicron appears not to cause hospitalisation in the double jabbed and particularly boosted, I would let it circulate as it will do anyway and the unvaccinated will have to decide what is in their best interests. This virus will keep circulating in one form or another for the foreseeable future as does flu now, for example.

Although that’s hoped for, and would be great if that were the case and it out performs delta, there’s no evidence yet to suggest it is less virulent than delta.

That’s why the government are being cautious and trying to delay its introduction. Considering the flak they got for not closing down early as delta was introduced they are in the position of being criticised either way.

Are you aware of any evidence that Omicron is more virulent than Delta?

[wheelnut]

Are you aware of any evidence that Omicron is more virulent than Delta?

No, and I think that’s the point. No evidence means no evidence. Lack of evidence one way doesn’t mean the opposite is true.

[MingtheMerciless]

Looks like Omicron is twice as likely to cause reinfection than earlier variants

Covid: First data points to Omicron re-infection risk https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59520945

[Count Steer]

The pace of Covid infections in the South African province of Gauteng is outstripping anything seen in previous waves, and officials say Omicron is now the dominant variant.

Angelique Coetzee, the chair of the South African Medical Association, said Omicron’s R number, measuring its ability to spread, was believed to be above 6.

(The greater the spread, the greater the probability of new variants developing, limiting the spread constrains, to some degree, the number of new variants. The same is, of course true of Delta).

[Horse]

the greater the probability of new variants developing, limiting the spread constrains

Which seem a good argument for not just letting it circulate widely and wildly. At least until there is better evidence on the effectiveness of current vaccines against it.

[irie]

If similar measures are taken every time a new and therefore unknown Covid variant appears we'll be living under the same constraints for the forseeable future because Covid is no more likely to disappear than flu or the common cold.

[Count Steer]

If similar measures are taken every time a new and therefore unknown Covid variant appears we'll be living under the same constraints for the forseeable future because Covid is no more likely to disappear than flu or the common cold.

There's a well established production process for vaccines in large quantities for each annual flu variant. Covid appears to be producing variants faster than an annual flu cycle and the processes aren't yet in place to tailor vaccines in the required quantities specific to each variant.

So yes. Expect about 3 more years of this.

[irie]

Although that’s hoped for, and would be great if that were the case and it out performs delta, there’s no evidence yet to suggest it is less virulent than delta.

That’s why the government are being cautious and trying to delay its introduction. Considering the flak they got for not closing down early as delta was introduced they are in the position of being criticised either way.

Are you aware of any evidence that Omicron is more virulent than Delta?

No, and I think that’s the point. No evidence means no evidence. Lack of evidence one way doesn’t mean the opposite is true.

Glad you agree that there is no reliable evidence either way.

[irie]

If similar measures are taken every time a new and therefore unknown Covid variant appears we'll be living under the same constraints for the forseeable future because Covid is no more likely to disappear than flu or the common cold.

There's a well established production process for vaccines in large quantities for each annual flu variant. Covid appears to be producing variants faster than an annual flu cycle and the processes aren't yet in place to tailor vaccines in the required quantities specific to each variant.

So yes. Expect about 3 more years of this.

Where does the "3 more years of this" statement come from?

[wheelnut]

Glad you agree that there is no reliable evidence either way.

So what made you make this comment then?

*** Because Omicron appears not to cause hospitalisation in the double jabbed and particularly boosted, I would let it circulate as it will do anyway and the unvaccinated will have to decide what is in their best interests. This virus will keep circulating in one form or another for the foreseeable future as does flu now, for example.

[irie]

Glad you agree that there is no reliable evidence either way.

So what made you make this comment then?

*** Because Omicron appears not to cause hospitalisation in the double jabbed and particularly boosted, I would let it circulate as it will do anyway and the unvaccinated will have to decide what is in their best interests. This virus will keep circulating in one form or another for the foreseeable future as does flu now, for example.

It is not reliable evidence but from reports in South Africa appears to be the case.

[Mr. Dazzle]

I dunno....this kind of conspiracy esque thinking always implies a level of joined up thinking few governments seem capable of

[wheelnut]

Glad you agree that there is no reliable evidence either way.

So what made you make this comment then?

*** Because Omicron appears not to cause hospitalisation in the double jabbed and particularly boosted, I would let it circulate as it will do anyway and the unvaccinated will have to decide what is in their best interests. This virus will keep circulating in one form or another for the foreseeable future as does flu now, for example.

It is not reliable evidence but from reports in South Africa appears to be the case.

So you would agree then, that with the lack of evidence, it’s too early to make policy decisions, and to just let it circulate freely in the hope that it’s less virulent would be unwise?

[wheelnut]

Whatever is behind it, this will kill off the travel industry good and proper.

It certainly looks like they're trying to drive in country value by supporting UK hospitality despite the risks, but being overly cautious on the travel industry and people taking holidays abroad.

ICV has been a big topic over the last couple of years and countries have been actively looking for ways to keep their currency inside their borders.
I'm not enough of a conspiracy nut to think this is their prime motivation, but surely someone with a vague idea of economics must have looked at the situation and decided that tourism can take the hit but pubs and venues can't.

The effect will be less tourists travelling to the UK to spend money versus less people leaving the UK to spend their money - I wonder what that balance sheet looks like.

Is it a win-win for the UK? More money being spent in the UK, less pollution from air travel..etc.

I think there is something in that and I was saying it last summer. It does decimate the inbound tourist numbers, but I still think it gives a reasonable net gain. It’s not just from UK based tourism/hospitality either. If people can’t spend their money in Benidorm, they’ll look for other ways to spend it, be it home improvements, new car or whatever.

I don’t think it’s driving policy as such, but the chancellor knows it’s a welcome consequence.

[Noggin]

Whatever is behind it, this will kill off the travel industry good and proper.

It certainly looks like they're trying to drive in country value by supporting UK hospitality despite the risks, but being overly cautious on the travel industry and people taking holidays abroad.

ICV has been a big topic over the last couple of years and countries have been actively looking for ways to keep their currency inside their borders.
I'm not enough of a conspiracy nut to think this is their prime motivation, but surely someone with a vague idea of economics must have looked at the situation and decided that tourism can take the hit but pubs and venues can't.

The effect will be less tourists travelling to the UK to spend money versus less people leaving the UK to spend their money - I wonder what that balance sheet looks like.

Is it a win-win for the UK? More money being spent in the UK, less pollution from air travel..etc.

I think there is something in that and I was saying it last summer. It does decimate the inbound tourist numbers, but I still think it gives a reasonable net gain. It’s not just from UK based tourism/hospitality either. If people can’t spend their money in Benidorm, they’ll look for other ways to spend it, be it home improvements, new car or whatever.

I don’t think it’s driving policy as such, but the chancellor knows it’s a welcome consequence.

Sadly, for a lot of people, it's business breaking

I know there needs to be restrictions but sometimes myself and many others wonder how long we can keep going