Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

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Will Russia invade the Ukraine

Yes
20
49%
No
12
29%
Maybe
9
22%
 
Total votes: 41

Mussels
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Mussels »

Has he just declared war on Russia?
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/ ... hin-a81615
The chief of Russian mercenary group Wagner on Friday accused Moscow's military leadership of ordering strikes on their camps and killing a "huge" number of forces.

"We were ready to make concessions to the Defense Ministry, surrender our weapons," Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a furious audio message released by his spokespeople.

"Today, seeing that we have not been broken, they conducted missile strikes at our rear camps."

He vowed to "stop" Moscow's top military leadership and called on Russians not to resist his forces.

"The council of commanders of PMC Wagner has made a decision — the evil that the military leadership of the country brings must be stopped," Prigozhin said in the audio message, urging Russians to remain calm.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that Prigozhin's statements "do not correspond to reality," calling them a "provocation."

"The Russian Armed Forces continue to carry out combat missions" in Ukraine, the ministry added.
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Bigyin
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigyin »

Not a lot of people thought Wagner would go on the offensive inside Russian borders and would just drop their involvement in Ukraine ....... Looks like they were wrong

Footage coming out showing airstrikes by Russian aircraft and helicopters on Wagner vehicles in Russia and responding claims of shooting down Russian Ka52's by the mercenaries
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

With implications for Russia's defence against the Ukrainian assault, too.

Is Prigozhin preparing to withdraw, give up the land taken and protect his forces?
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by MyLittleStudPony »

Bigyin wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:45 pm Not a lot of people thought Wagner would go on the offensive inside Russian borders and would just drop their involvement in Ukraine ....... Looks like they were wrong

Footage coming out showing airstrikes by Russian aircraft and helicopters on Wagner vehicles in Russia and responding claims of shooting down Russian Ka52's by the mercenaries


He's come along way since he was on X-Factor.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigjawa »

Bigyin wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:45 pm Not a lot of people thought Wagner would go on the offensive inside Russian borders and would just drop their involvement in Ukraine ....... Looks like they were wrong

Footage coming out showing airstrikes by Russian aircraft and helicopters on Wagner vehicles in Russia and responding claims of shooting down Russian Ka52's by the mercenaries
The scary thing is that the Wagner lot appear to be better fighters than the official Russia army. If the army folk think "fuck this" and join with Wagner, or just plain desert, lord only knows what will happen. Putin let loose his attack dog and now it's turned on him. Prigozhin doesn't care about Ukraine, he's looking to be the boss man, he's apparently well armed and ready to go the whole way. If he gathers popular support, Putin is toast.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigyin »

Bigjawa wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 4:25 pm
The scary thing is that the Wagner lot appear to be better fighters than the official Russia army. If the army folk think "fuck this" and join with Wagner, or just plain desert, lord only knows what will happen. Putin let loose his attack dog and now it's turned on him. Prigozhin doesn't care about Ukraine, he's looking to be the boss man, he's apparently well armed and ready to go the whole way. If he gathers popular support, Putin is toast.
Russia has lost a lot of their regular soldiers already after the invasion of Ukraine went wrong so many of their forces now are low trained replacements. Wagner are a supposedly professional mercenary force with experience in conflicts already in African states as well as Ukraine. All of their troops have combat experience but again they have also taken losses but when it comes down to it they are in Wagner to fight because they want to be there (either for money or prison pardons) as opposed to have been drafted/conscripted and forced to fight.

The majority of the Russian success in Ukraine has been achieved by Wagner and the VDV paratroopers. With both now back in Russia (Wagner on orders from their boss who is pissed off with Putin and the VDV withdrawn to replenish their numbers) then the lines they gained are now weakened. Putin will be eager to stamp this out as quickly as possible either by assassinating Prigozhin or negotiating behind the scenes with him some sort of reward that leaves Putin in charge and gets the Wagner lot back "on message" with the motherland
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigjawa »

Putin doesn't strike me as the negotiating type, especially when a former ally, in the loosest sense of the word, has turned on him it also appears that the Wagner tefal heads have managed to get pro Wagner propaganda out to the public in Russia who have been in the dark for the most part.

It'll be interesting to see how the next 24 hours pan out.
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Bigyin
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigyin »

Bigyin wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 4:37 pm Putin will be eager to stamp this out as quickly as possible either by assassinating Prigozhin or negotiating behind the scenes with him some sort of reward that leaves Putin in charge and gets the Wagner lot back "on message" with the motherland
And as if by magic Wagner have just announced they will be returning to barracks to avoid a direct “spilling of Russian blood” if the convoy gets to Moscow. The result of some alleged negotiations by Belarus president as Putin and Prigozhin don’t/won’t speak to each other
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Bigyin wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:49 pm
Bigyin wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 4:37 pm Putin will be eager to stamp this out as quickly as possible either by assassinating Prigozhin or negotiating behind the scenes with him some sort of reward that leaves Putin in charge and gets the Wagner lot back "on message" with the motherland
And as if by magic Wagner have just announced they will be returning to barracks to avoid a direct “spilling of Russian blood” if the convoy gets to Moscow. The result of some alleged negotiations by Belarus president as Putin and Prigozhin don’t/won’t speak to each other
Wonder what deal was struck to cause this about-face?
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by demographic »

Looke like Putin has offered more money then eh?
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Count Steer »

demographic wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:37 pm Looke like Putin has offered more money then eh?
Probably have to start by giving back the £37m (equivalent) they're supposed to have seized from the Wagner office in St Petersburg. That's quite a big petty cash box. :shock:

Not exactly likely that there's going to be much trust between them going forward eh?
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

irie wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:12 pm
Bigyin wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:49 pm
Bigyin wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 4:37 pm Putin will be eager to stamp this out as quickly as possible either by assassinating Prigozhin or negotiating behind the scenes with him some sort of reward that leaves Putin in charge and gets the Wagner lot back "on message" with the motherland
And as if by magic Wagner have just announced they will be returning to barracks to avoid a direct “spilling of Russian blood” if the convoy gets to Moscow. The result of some alleged negotiations by Belarus president as Putin and Prigozhin don’t/won’t speak to each other
Wonder what deal was struck to cause this about-face?
Breaking:
The head of the Wagner group will leave for Belarus and charges against his mercenaries will be dropped following their rebellion, Russian state media says
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by mangocrazy »

This country ain't big enough for both of us...

I anticipate that 'he who cannot be named because it's too much faff' will suffer an unfortunate fall from a 5th story window in the short to medium term.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by demographic »

Count Steer wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:50 pm
demographic wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:37 pm Looke like Putin has offered more money then eh?
Probably have to start by giving back the £37m (equivalent) they're supposed to have seized from the Wagner office in St Petersburg. That's quite a big petty cash box. :shock:

Not exactly likely that there's going to be much trust between them going forward eh?

Looks like Putins had his wings clipped a bit then?
Interesting times anyway.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Yambo »

Lukashenko's a fool.

Prigozhin probably thinks "I can 'ave 'im, nukes an' all!"
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Mussels »

I'm wondering if Prigozhin is going to be a sleeper in Belarus. Lukashenka is only holding on to power due to Putin's support and Russia has a plan to annex Belarus as well, but there's resistance and an armed uprising there wouldn't be a shock.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigyin »

Mussels wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 11:52 am I'm wondering if Prigozhin is going to be a sleeper in Belarus. Lukashenka is only holding on to power due to Putin's support and Russia has a plan to annex Belarus as well, but there's resistance and an armed uprising there wouldn't be a shock.
Or the supposed exile (as prigozhin doesn’t strike me as a man to meekly go where he is told) is a discreet way of positioning the Wagner battalion in Belarus right onto the fairly weak Ukrainian northern border while they are conducting a counter offensive in the south east. Putin can then deploy them along with some Belarus forces intermingled with Wagner and attack on both Southern and Northern fronts at the same time. I doubt Ukraine has the resources to fight on all fronts simultaneously
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Yambo »

Bigyin wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 5:57 pm
Mussels wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 11:52 am I'm wondering if Prigozhin is going to be a sleeper in Belarus. Lukashenka is only holding on to power due to Putin's support and Russia has a plan to annex Belarus as well, but there's resistance and an armed uprising there wouldn't be a shock.
Or the supposed exile (as prigozhin doesn’t strike me as a man to meekly go where he is told) is a discreet way of positioning the Wagner battalion in Belarus right onto the fairly weak Ukrainian northern border while they are conducting a counter offensive in the south east. Putin can then deploy them along with some Belarus forces intermingled with Wagner and attack on both Southern and Northern fronts at the same time. I doubt Ukraine has the resources to fight on all fronts simultaneously

It does all seem to be a bit of a charade, doesn't it, unless Prigozhin has a 7th floor hotel room booked for him.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigyin »

Yambo wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:42 am
It does all seem to be a bit of a charade, doesn't it, unless Prigozhin has a 7th floor hotel room booked for him.
Some things about the weekends goings on in Russia just don’t seem to make any sense. The statement issued by Wagner saying that the convoy will return to barracks to avoid the spilling of Russian blood on either side. This statement made shortly after Wagner shot down 3 KA52 attack helicopters with the loss of all crews and also an IL22 command and control aircraft with at least 10 crew on board.

At the weekend all charges were being dropped yet today Russian media state the investigation into the acts of treason is continuing

Weird and mixed messages
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Count Steer »

Bigyin wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2023 1:31 pm
Yambo wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2023 9:42 am
It does all seem to be a bit of a charade, doesn't it, unless Prigozhin has a 7th floor hotel room booked for him.
Some things about the weekends goings on in Russia just don’t seem to make any sense. The statement issued by Wagner saying that the convoy will return to barracks to avoid the spilling of Russian blood on either side. This statement made shortly after Wagner shot down 3 KA52 attack helicopters with the loss of all crews and also an IL22 command and control aircraft with at least 10 crew on board.

At the weekend all charges were being dropped yet today Russian media state the investigation into the acts of treason is continuing

Weird and mixed messages
It's all a bit bizarre. I can see why Lukashenko would want Wagner onside (and also why you might not want them anywhere near). More of the necessary muscle to keep control/in power, but it's a bit 'dine with the devil'.

Wonder if Putin might be tempted to fetch his nuke warheads back? Not convinced he'll be happy with Prighozin being that close to them.

Interesting logistics too if all the Wagner hardware tries to relocate. Could be an interesting journey.
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