Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[KungFooBob]

I'm sure the Hereford guys are pleased at being outed by the yanks... again

But... what colour is the boat house?

[irie]

Seems that Ukraine is drawing in and destroying as much Russian military power in Bakhmut as it can before launching a counter offensive towards the Sea of Azov with the objective of isolating Crimea.

Presumably a large tank offensive when the ground dries out. Have seen these figures for current and future tank shipments to Ukraine:

Germany: 18 Leopard 2 tanks
UK: 14 Challenger II tanks
US: 31 Abrams tanks
Poland: 14 Leopard 2 tanks
Norway: 8 Leopard 2 tanks
Canada: 8 Leopard 2 tanks
Denmark and Netherlands: 14 Leopard 2 tanks
Spain: 10 Leopard 2 tanks
Finland: 3 Leopard 2 tanks

Denmark will also refurbish 100 Leopard 1 tanks to be sent to Ukraine by 2024.

[irie]

When the terrain dries out.

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[Hoonercat]

On May 8th, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin posted on Telegram 14 points summarising the situation around Bakhmut. He stated that Wagner no longer had enough personel to secure its flanks, so the regular Russian army were given that task. He stated that those flanks were already 'cracking and falling apart' due to a Ukraine counter-offensive, and that his Wagner troops were at 'serious risk of encirclement'. On May 10th, Ukraine announced that that Russian troops guarding those flanks had fled.
The official Russian line is that the army is 'regrouping'. Prigozhin has a somewhat different take on it

"Our army is fleeing. The 72nd Brigade pissed away three square km this morning, where I had lost around 500 men," Prigozhin said.

Interesting developments in Russia, with Ivor Girkin forming a new political party made up of ultra-nationalists. He believes that without Putin, Russia would collapse, and has stated previously that a successful Ukraine counter-offensive could be the catalyst

Girkin, a nationalist and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who helped Russia annex Crimea in 2014 and then organize pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine, said the group hoped to prevent the collapse of Russia.

"A systemic crisis is brewing in Russia - or it is already in the grip of crisis - while the temperature of society is rising," Girkin told Reuters. "We are on the cusp of very grave internal political changes of a catastrophic character."

"All healthy forces need to create organizations which will take part in the political battle which is inevitable - and which has already started," he said.

[Potter]

Russia would collapse...

Collapse to what?

Blair/Bush set off a series of events that have collapsed the USA/UK, I don't think most of the inhabitants have become aware but both countries have very much collapsed compared to any reasonable model of success. Financially buggered, morally off the scale, economic crisis, political crisis, collapse of services, etc.

So yeah, Russia might "collapse" but it might just collapse to a point where it starts thrashing out and becomes a major global pain in the arse like America is.

[Hoonercat]

Russia would collapse...

Collapse to what?

From their manifesto

In power and big business continue to be those who have moved their capital and their loyalty to the West. They are ready for sabotage, as well as direct collusion with the enemy and, therefore, betrayal. We do not exclude their preparations for a pro-Western coup, capitulation and, consequently, dismemberment of Russia.

We will oppose this scenario with all available means.

We are ready to cooperate with all the healthy forces of society, with all those who do not want Russia’s defeat.

All for the front, all for Victory, glory to Russia !

[irie]

When talking about the possible collapse of Russia it should be taken into account account that Russia is a federation of Republics.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia

[Mussels]

I see Ukraine* has invaded Russia and occupied one of the Russian border villages, that could shake things up if they can hang on to it.

* A group of Russians has claimed responsibility but Russia is saying it's Ukrainian saboteurs.

[Hoonercat]

Wagner Group claim to have taken Bakhmut, while Ukraine insists its troops still hold a small section of the city. Analysts have insisted for months that it is of no strategic value to either side, moreso now that it's not much more than rubble, and some western sources have questioned why Ukraine has put so much effort into defending it. A couple of military analysts that I follow on YouTube have produced in-depth presentations explaining that, for Ukraine, it's less a case of trying to hold it for strategic value, and more a case of knowing that they can use their defensive positions to full advantage in order to make as big a dent in in the Russian forces as possible, knowing that Russia is desperate for a symbolic victory.
The US recently stated that 20,000 Russians have died and 80,000 injured in the fight for Bakhmut. Wagner have stated that 20,000 Russians have died, but AFAIK made no mention of injuries. A huge cost for a pile of rubble, but it's the Russian way

[Mussels]

Wagner have already announced their withdrawal and if it's lost then it's the Russian army to blame.
I saw reasoning that if Ukraine gave Bakhmut up the fighting would just move to the next town and that gets trashed.

[Hoonercat]

Interesting developments in Russia, with Ivor Girkin forming a new political party made up of ultra-nationalists. He believes that without Putin, Russia would collapse, and has stated previously that a successful Ukraine counter-offensive could be the catalyst

Girkin, a nationalist and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who helped Russia annex Crimea in 2014 and then organize pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine, said the group hoped to prevent the collapse of Russia.

"A systemic crisis is brewing in Russia - or it is already in the grip of crisis - while the temperature of society is rising," Girkin told Reuters. "We are on the cusp of very grave internal political changes of a catastrophic character."

"All healthy forces need to create organizations which will take part in the political battle which is inevitable - and which has already started," he said.

Prigozhin, head of Wagner, has given a remarkable interview (even by his standards) to a Russian blogger. One of the highlights is his talk of revolution, where he takes a shot at the elite, their children taking instragram photos of themselves applying suncream at the beach while the parents of ordinary citizens are seeing their children come home in zinc coffins. He talks of division in Russia and states that a revolution like 1917 could happen, beginning with the army and then those 'tens of thousands' who have lost loved ones which will 'probably soon be hundreds of thousands'.

He is very critical of the 'special military operation. He states that rather than demilitarise Ukraine, the SMO has done the complete opposite and made it probably one of the strongest armies in the world.
He says denazifying Ukraine has also been a complete failure, because Ukraine is now known world-wide, is seen as a legitimate nation and is now closer than ever to Europe and NATO rather than Russia. (If this sounds confusing, it's because Russians don't view Nazism in the same way as westerners do - to them, Nazism is a hatred of Russia and the 'cure' is to educate them to be more Russian, hence why he says it has completely failed, 'Ukraine has been legitimised' (as a nation)).
It's not unusual for Prigozhin to be critical of the Russian army top brass, but this interview seems to go way beyond that.

[Mussels]

It must have touched a nerve as the blogger was immediately sacked from his state media job.
There's also a video out of a Russian ship being attacked in (or just outside) Turkish waters, and another yesterday of a big clould of smoke coming up from the Crimean bridge.
With Lukashenko at death's door Poland and Ukraine have said they will support an armed uprising in Belarus with Russia saying they will fight it.
Things are spreading out a bit, probably an effort to try and spread Russia's forces thin. They have had to send a chunk of the army to reinforce the northern Russia/Ukraine border as it's been breached a few times this week.

[Count Steer]

In other news, Belarus has confirmed the arrival of the first Russian nukes. Careful what you wish for chaps, particularly since the Russian 'rebels' seem to be slightly to the right of Attila.

Cheering from the sidelines is fine until the sidelines move.

[Mussels]

I can't see the far right Russian groups getting far, there are too many private armies in Russia.
I think the one to watch is the Kalinouski regiment from Belarus who have been fighting alongside Ukrainians, lots of battle experience and will have more local support in Belarus.

[irie]

And now it starts.

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-06-05/rus ... -overnight

Russian channels hacked with fake Putin speeches amid reports of Ukrainian counteroffensive

Russian broadcast channels have been hacked to feature speeches from a fake Vladimir Putin and a Ukrainian propaganda clip, according to reports.

The series of hacks, which have taken place over the last few days, coincide with speculation that Ukraine has begun a widely anticipated counteroffensive.

On Sunday, a "deep fake" of President Putin, produced by artificial intelligence, appeared on Russian TV, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The figure reportedly called another round of Russian troops up for active service.

The following day, Russia itself admitted radio stations in Moscow-controlled Crimea had inadvertently played a fabricated Putin address

[Hoonercat]

Russian Telegram channels reporting heavy losses in the south and a 20km wide breach of the first defensive line (no official confirmation yet). This report is a day or two behind real time events, but if confirmed it has the potential for a large section of the first line to crumple, now that Ukraine forces can get in behind them while they are still under fire from a frontal assault.

According to old Soviet doctrine outposts in the screening and security zones are manned with troops from the second echelon (ie the second defensive line). The first echelon is manned with 1/3 of the manpower but 2/3 of the firepower available.

If this is how the Russian defences are set up, it leaves them with some very hard decisions. If their soldiers panic and flee, Ukraine is left with a lot of Russian artillery to help it break the second line. If they attempt an organised retreat to save their artillery, they're going to have fast-moving Ukraine mechanised brigades on their heels. They could choose to sabotage their own artillery, but Ukraine could probably salvage much of it, given that the majority of Ukraine artillery is Russian-made,
All speculation on my part though, if Russia brings it's air superioty into play things could change very quickly.

[Mussels]

Prigozhin has his own political agenda of course but as one of the most prominent people involved in the war this was a bit surprising.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/ ... ied-a81609

Russia did not face an imminent security threat to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary outfit, said in a bombshell video posted on social media Friday.

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with the NATO bloc,” Prigozhin explained in the half-hour tirade released by his press service.

“The Russian Defense Ministry is deceiving the public and the president,” he added.

Prigozhin’s comments were at odds with the casus belli given by President Vladimir Putin when he ordered troops into Ukraine last February, although the private army chief avoided personally attacking the Russian leader.

Putin has cited NATO expansion near Russia's borders as one of the main justifications for invading neighboring Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Prigozhin escalated his criticism of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu by claiming that Russia went to war “for the self-promotion of a bunch of bastards.”

He blamed Russia’s military leadership for “poorly planning” the invasion and “embarrassing” the military after a series of setbacks on the battlefield last year.

“Shoigu killed thousands of the most combat-ready Russian soldiers in the first days of the war,” he charged.

“The mentally ill scumbags decided ‘It’s okay, we’ll throw in a few thousand more Russian men as ‘cannon fodder.’ ‘They’ll die under artillery fire, but we’ll get what we want’,” Prigozhin continued.

“That’s why it has become a protracted war.”

Prigozhin also accused Kremlin-linked oligarchs of seeking to plunder Ukraine’s resources after its military capture and appointment of a puppet regime in Kyiv.

“The task was to divide material assets in Ukraine. There was widespread theft in the [industrial eastern Ukrainian territory of the] Donbas, but they wanted more.”

Some analysts have interpreted Prigozhin’s latest comments as a sign of his growing political ambitions.

He addressed the Ukrainian forces’ ongoing counteroffensive in similarly critical terms, saying the Russian army is retreating from the partially occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

“We are washing ourselves in blood. No one is bringing reserves. What they tell us is the deepest deception,” Prigozhin said, referring to Putin and Shoigu’s claims that Russia is successfully pushing back Ukrainian counterattacks.

[Yambo]

Lol!

None of that stopped Prigozhin from joining in, did it!

[Pirahna]

“The Russian Defense Ministry is deceiving the public and the president,”

That'll be Putin's get out of jail free card with the Russian public.

[irie]

Could Prigozhin conceivably want to be on the winning side?