Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Asian Boss]

See above.

Yeah not really though, I'm not sure the EU ever really had any real control over what the UK did with it's own armed forces

Look at Diane Abbott's shoes! Defend the statues!

[wheelnut]

Because courtesy of Brexit the UK is no longer a member of the EU and can therefore no longer be bound by any decisions of the EU Commission or any other EU body where majority decisions can be made. Really not difficult to understand tbh.

I don’t think the EU has ever had any leverage over the UK entering into a conflict.

I think you may be getting the EU mixed up with NATO.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

Does it really matter to the ordinary people of Ukraine if they have a Western or Eastern facing government?

Err, yes I think it does.

Why?

[irie]

See above.

Yeah not really though, I'm not sure the EU ever really had any real control over what the UK did with it's own armed forces

I didn't mention "armed forces". I said:

Because courtesy of Brexit the UK is no longer a member of the EU and can therefore no longer be bound by any decisions of the EU Commission or any other EU body where majority decisions can be made. Really not difficult to understand tbh.

[DefTrap]

I didn't mention "armed forces".

I'm not sure I'm bothered then. What exactly is this relevant curiosity of binding EU membership that you're bothered about ?

[wheelnut]

See above.

Yeah not really though, I'm not sure the EU ever really had any real control over what the UK did with it's own armed forces

I didn't mention "armed forces".

Well, if you’re talking the EU dictating the acceptable shape of bananas then maybe you should do it in a different thread. The whole context of this thread is about military conflict.

[irie]

Yeah not really though, I'm not sure the EU ever really had any real control over what the UK did with it's own armed forces

I didn't mention "armed forces".

Well, if you’re talking the EU dictating the acceptable shape of bananas then maybe you should do it in a different thread. The whole context of this thread is about military conflict.

One facet of such a discussion is the contrast between the hard rhetoric emanating from Brussels and it's impotence in dealing with the situation it finds itself in..

It has been complicit in helping Russia get to the position where Russia now exerts strategic control over much of the EU's energy supplies.

The SWIFT bazooka mooted for later use again Russia would at the same time disproportionately affect Germany"s economy. Watch this space.

Edit: disproportionately

[Asian Boss]

I'm not convinced energy supply is as significant as it's sometimes made out to be. Gas is what, about ten percent of Germany's mix.

They could probably make a significant proportion of that up by firing up gas engines on older landfill sites using diesel. They've already got the grid connections in place.

[Cousin Jack]

If we (USA, UK, NATO, et al) were serious we would confiscate all Russian assets and ban ALL trade with Russia. Yes it would be painful.

We haven't, and aren't, so Russia will carry on breaking the rules when it fees like it.

Next stop, China v Taiwan.

[slowsider]

If we (USA, UK, NATO, et al) were serious we would confiscate all Russian assets and ban ALL trade with Russia. Yes it would be painful.

We haven't, and aren't, so Russia will carry on breaking the rules when it fees like it.

Next stop, China v Taiwan.

If we were serious, we wouldn't be selling arms to countries on the Foreign Office's list of human rights offenders.
But hey, ker-ching. There's money to be made out of this too.

[irie]

I'm not convinced energy supply is as significant as it's sometimes made out to be. Gas is what, about ten percent of Germany's mix.

They could probably make a significant proportion of that up by firing up gas engines on older landfill sites using diesel. They've already got the grid connections in place.

Wiki says 23.7%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_ ... of%20its%2

The EIA says 25%

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/DEU

[Yambo]

Does it really matter to the ordinary people of Ukraine if they have a Western or Eastern facing government?

Err, yes I think it does.

Why?

Mmmm, this is a guess, OK, but you don't exercise your right to vote in local and general elections, do you.

[Asian Boss]

I'm not convinced energy supply is as significant as it's sometimes made out to be. Gas is what, about ten percent of Germany's mix.

They could probably make a significant proportion of that up by firing up gas engines on older landfill sites using diesel. They've already got the grid connections in place.

Wiki says 23.7%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_ ... of%20its%2

The EIA says 25%

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/DEU

Sorry, yes, you are correct. I was thinking of installed capacity.

[irie]

Reported by the EU-centric media.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... sanctions/

Germany’s Olaf Scholz opposes inclusion of SWIFT in Russia sanctions for now

German chancellor argues certain measures should be reserved for ‘a situation where it is necessary to do other things as well.’

I wonder what events Scholz believe would have to occur in Ukraine to convince Germany to agree to include SWIFT in Russian sanctions?

[Mussels]

Reported by the EU-centric media.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... sanctions/

Germany’s Olaf Scholz opposes inclusion of SWIFT in Russia sanctions for now

German chancellor argues certain measures should be reserved for ‘a situation where it is necessary to do other things as well.’

I wonder what events Scholz believe would have to occur in Ukraine to convince Germany to agree to include SWIFT in Russian sanctions?

That will be the point Russia stops paying off it's loans from German banks, maybe it could be engineered from inside Ukraine?

[wheelnut]

One facet of such a discussion is the contrast between the hard rhetoric emanating from Brussels and it's impotence in dealing with the situation it finds itself in..

It has been complicit in helping Russia get to the position where Russia now exerts strategic control over much of the EU's energy supplies.

The SWIFT bazooka mooted for later use again Russia would at the same time disproportionately affect Germany"s economy. Watch this space.

Edit: disproportionately

That's one way of looking at it. Another way is that having a good trading relationship with other countries can help prevent a country going on military adventures.

Hasn't worked in this case, or in germany's case in 1939 come to that, but the thinking is generally accepted.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

Err, yes I think it does.

Why?

Mmmm, this is a guess, OK, but you don't exercise your right to vote in local and general elections, do you.

Yes I do, but it makes fuck all difference to my life whether we have a Labour or Conservative Government
But I'd rather have a life without a war about which crooked twat runs Ukraine.

[slowsider]

Why?

Mmmm, this is a guess, OK, but you don't exercise your right to vote in local and general elections, do you.

Yes I do, but it makes fuck all difference to my life whether we have a Labour or Conservative Government
But I'd rather have a life without a war about which crooked twat runs Ukraine.

It made little difference to your life being inside the EU, but some ordinary people of UK got quite animated about it, even without the threat of an invasion.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

Mmmm, this is a guess, OK, but you don't exercise your right to vote in local and general elections, do you.

Yes I do, but it makes fuck all difference to my life whether we have a Labour or Conservative Government
But I'd rather have a life without a war about which crooked twat runs Ukraine.

It made little difference to your life being inside the EU, but some ordinary people of UK got quite animated about it, even without the threat of an invasion.

Indeed, but people going "meh, I don't care" doesn't make good telly, which led to a load more people getting excited about it.

[Yambo]

Why?

Mmmm, this is a guess, OK, but you don't exercise your right to vote in local and general elections, do you.

Yes I do, but it makes fuck all difference to my life whether we have a Labour or Conservative Government
But I'd rather have a life without a war about which crooked twat runs Ukraine.

I must apologise mate, I credited you with far more intelligence than you deserve.

Are Labour or Conservative East and West leaning? Tough one that.

Why should you use your right to vote and choose who perhaps governs you but the people of Ukraine shouldn't bother? My friend in Dnepre told me some time ago that his grandparents have lived in 3 different countries but have never moved house. They prefer their latest country, Ukraine to both the Soviet Union and Russia. I guess that a Western leaning government gives them more freedom, better standard of living, less worries about a knock on the door in the early hours for putting their opinion in the public domain. You know, little things that selecting who governs you can make your life better.