On the basis that this was least-worse place to stick it...
A mildly interesting read if you're into that sort of thing, albeit sod all to do directly with pensions.
Economic growth has been falling for a generation. Labour has no hope of turning it around
The financial crisis was merely the beginning of a long run of growth-smothering events
James Sproule has been chief economist of Handelsbanken UK since May 2020.
Published 03 April 2026 8:00am BST
If we are to believe the Chancellor’s rhetoric, the Government has one overriding goal: economic growth. Life is certainly a good deal easier for governments, let alone society, when the economy expands. Aside from anything else, the benefits can be shared between politicians – who want to finance their bright ideas – and the people generating the wealth.
The Economist recently noted the UK had seen a steep fall in overall “happiness” since 2019 and a stagnant economy has played a part. People generally do not feel the benefits of economic growth in a single year but as a backdrop over a decade or so. Looking at the trailing rate of growth since the 1960s, we can see a clear downward trend. Since 1990, the decline has grown steeper.
The correlation of growth and social order was explored at length by Benjamin Friedman, the former head of economics at Harvard, in his book The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth.
He noted that when people see their own material position improve over time, they tend to be satisfied.
When they do not, they start to perceive life as a zero-sum game where winners only gain at someone else’s expense, at which point resentment soars and the social order starts to creak.
What growth we have seen in the last two decades has averaged 1.2pc annually – anaemic at best.
Perhaps more worryingly, for anyone born after the mid-1980s, economic growth may not even be a familiar concept. Coming of age during the global financial crisis means many millennials – who make up significant swathes of today’s workforce – have never seen this mythical concept.
For this generation, the financial crisis was merely the beginning of a long string of growth-smothering events. After that crisis, we had a period of mild austerity – just enough to affect living standards but nowhere near enough to reverse the country’s economic woes.
Concerns about austerity metamorphosed into concerns about Brexit. Arguments still rage over whether Brexit in itself acted as a brake on the economy or simply coincided with a slowdown, but the numbers are what they are.
Barely had Brexit taken effect when Covid arrived. The pandemic subsided just in time for Russia to invade Ukraine, causing oil prices and inflation to soar. Donald Trump returned as US president in 2025, reintroducing the concept of tariffs, and now we see renewed conflict in the Middle East.
The economic gloom keeps on coming. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, delivered her Spring Statement in March, lowering expected growth for this year to 1.1pc – and even this appears optimistic.
What are we to do?
Economic growth in any given year can be seen as a combination of increases in the number of people working and improvements to productivity.
Demographically, we are currently experiencing a shrinkage of about 0.1pc per year in the working-age population and countering this with migration is likely to prove controversial.
Meanwhile, productivity has – despite frequent forecasts to the contrary – been dormant since 2007.
However, this could be about to change for two reasons.
Firstly, interest rates have risen. The long spell of ultra-low interest rates from 2007 to 2022 meant money was essentially free. The result was that the return rate needed to justify investments fell. Investments that do not have to deliver realistic returns are unlikely to enhance productivity.
Today, investments will have to be more considered and will more naturally enhance productivity.
Secondly, the last eight years have seen a 62pc rise in the National Living Wage. Ironically, this should raise the per-capita growth data for productivity, but such a steep increase will eliminate viable employment for a substantial number of low-skilled workers.
As we have seen in France, if the lowest-skilled, least productive members of the workforce are excluded from labour, the result is a rise in the average measurement of productivity. However, broader society will suffer.
No one doubts that Britain needs growth, but if the Government wants it alongside a far higher National Living Wage and an enhanced set of employment rights, then this is a hard circle to square.
Equally, the last government’s priorities around “levelling up”, while politically understandable, put the political cart before the economic horse.
All too often, policy makers seek economic growth to meet broader political priorities. The reality is we have reached the dire stage where we need to welcome it wherever and however it might appear.