Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Horse]

But not only has he had to pull back from total take over, he is now losing the 4 bits he thought he could bargain with by saying 'OK I'll only take these bits'.

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

[slowsider]

In the meantime I'm trying not to think about a nuke going off as that feels a bit to scary.

I'm trying to console myself with the possibility that his nukes are about as state of the art as the rest of his military.

Not just his:

"South Korea’s military has apologised after a missile it launched during a drill on Tuesday malfunctioned and crashed to the ground, causing alarm among nearby residents who thought they were under attack from North Korea, which had test launched a missile earlier in the day.
The live-fire drill, involving South Korea and the US, was supposed to be a show of strength by the allies, hours after the North sent an intermediate-range missile over northern Japan."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... st-crashes

[Hoonercat]

I can't see Putin using tactical nukes this year, winter should see the Ukraine counter-offensive grind to a halt in the east come the next 4 - 6 weeks, though heavy fighting may continue in the Kherson region as Ukraine looks set to partly encircle Russian forces over the coming weeks. The biggest threat to Ukraine will be its energy infrastructure, Putin is not beyond freezing thousands to death in the hope of forcing the Ukraine people to demand a negotiated solution. Ukraine, I should imagine, will step up its efforts to disrupt Russian supply lines in the hope of driving down Russian morale over what could be a very difficult winter, given that winter will give Putin time to 'bed in' his new recruits, ready for a fresh offensive in the spring.

[Horse]

There are weird but simple ways that even ultra high tech weapons can fail.

In the ME, one of the Scud missiles got through the defence system. That was designed as a 'portable' system, not intended to be installed and left on 24/7, for weeks at a time.

There was a small amount of 'rounding' in the software. A daily restart eliminated it, otherwise it became cumulative and eroded accuracy.

[Hoonercat]

Interesting to see how Russia's numerical tank advantage has crumbled as the war progresses. The breaktrough in the south has been attributed by Russia as being due to "numerically superior tank units” (of Ukraine). In the first months of the war, logistics was the key downfall, when 53% of Russian tanks losses were simply down to being abandoned. At the time, this was put down to Russian tanks advancing too quickly and without enough infantry support and logistical support, but with the Russians now 'digging in' you'd have thought their numerical superiority would start to show benefits.

[irie]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

The currently supplied HIMARS rocket range of about 70km will be too short to reach deep into Crimea.

Ukraine wants ATACMS rockets with a 300km range but the US is understandably reticent about supplying weapons that could reach deep into Russia (for example on the eastern front).

I think the US will have to supply ATACMS rockets. It could be that the cause of the delay is the need to make software changes to prevent the loading of target GPS coordinates anywhere in Russia. Could be wrong of course.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/03/poli ... index.html

In bid for new long-range rockets, Ukraine offers US targeting oversight

In an effort to overcome Biden administration resistance to providing it with a new set of powerful, long-range rocket systems, the Ukrainian government is now offering the US full and ongoing visibility into their list of intended Russian targets, multiple officials familiar with the discussions tell CNN.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

[Horse]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

It's wonderful being on someone's ignore list

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

[slowsider]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

It's wonderful being on someone's ignore list

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

I'd quote you, but it will have the same result

[Horse]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

It's wonderful being on someone's ignore list

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

I'd quote you, but it will have the same result

Wonder whether this will work?

@irie

[Hoonercat]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

It's wonderful being on someone's ignore list

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

I'd quote you, but it will have the same result

Well allow me to step forward and help you all ou..
Oh, wait...

[Mussels]

The Wall Street Journal made an intersting statement which I could well believe.
The biggest supplier of heavy weaponry to Ukraine is Russia due to all of the kit they abandon when running away.

[irie]

The Wall Street Journal made an intersting statement which I could well believe.
The biggest supplier of heavy weaponry to Ukraine is Russia due to all of the kit they abandon when running away.

If the US does indeed supply ATACMS rockets to Ukraine then Russia will become the largest supplier of Crimea scrap metal to Ukraine.

The Saky air base attack may have been a dry run.

[Mussels]

If Russia sends all those conscripts in then it will also be Ukraine's biggest source of Soylent Green.

[irie]

If Russia sends all those conscripts in then it will also be Ukraine's biggest source of Soylent Green.

As said on September 24th:

Seems to me that by forcing recalcitrant soldiers into the Russian army Putin has injected a 'fifth column' into the army. What could possibly go wrong?

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/ ... rve-a78857

[Horse]

Analysts are struggling to see how the war in Ukraine will end, says Timothy Snyder in his Substack newsletter. Many can’t look beyond the terrifying possibility of a Russian nuclear strike. But I think there’s another, more “plausible” scenario: that Russia’s battlefield defeats will precipitate an internal power struggle, leading to the swift withdrawal of Moscow’s forces from Ukraine. It may even be starting to happen already. In recent weeks two prominent political figures – Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the feared Wagner mercenary group – have openly and “brutally” criticised the Russian high command for failures in Ukraine. Crucially, both men effectively control their own private armies, with fighters deployed in the war.

If Kadyrov or Prigozhin get even the slightest inkling that Putin is losing his grip on power, everything changes. They would want to get their men out of Ukraine and back to Russia, either to protect their interests or to “make a play for Moscow”. The same logic applies to the Russian army itself: ambitious commanders would “pull back while they still have units to command”. None of this would necessarily result in armed conflict breaking out in Russia. But it would leave Vladimir Putin with no choice but to pull his troops out of Ukraine – keeping the army on side, and in close proximity, would be essential “for his own political survival”.

[irie]

M30A1

Game changer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambl ... dfddf76dbc

[Hoonercat]

Analysts are struggling to see how the war in Ukraine will end, says Timothy Snyder in his Substack newsletter. Many can’t look beyond the terrifying possibility of a Russian nuclear strike. But I think there’s another, more “plausible” scenario: that Russia’s battlefield defeats will precipitate an internal power struggle, leading to the swift withdrawal of Moscow’s forces from Ukraine. It may even be starting to happen already. In recent weeks two prominent political figures – Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the feared Wagner mercenary group – have openly and “brutally” criticised the Russian high command for failures in Ukraine. Crucially, both men effectively control their own private armies, with fighters deployed in the war.

If Kadyrov or Prigozhin get even the slightest inkling that Putin is losing his grip on power, everything changes. They would want to get their men out of Ukraine and back to Russia, either to protect their interests or to “make a play for Moscow”. The same logic applies to the Russian army itself: ambitious commanders would “pull back while they still have units to command”. None of this would necessarily result in armed conflict breaking out in Russia. But it would leave Vladimir Putin with no choice but to pull his troops out of Ukraine – keeping the army on side, and in close proximity, would be essential “for his own political survival”.

Sorry dude, we agree on lots of things but this 'analyst' doesn't have a clue, he's no different to the Russian propagandists. Yes, both have criticised the Russian high command, but not Putin. In the past week, Kadyrov stated he would give up his Chechnyan leadership in return for a major role in the Russian military, within 2 days he withdrew that statement. While he is seen as a 'patriot', he is a Muslim, which gives him absolultely no chance of becoming the leader of an Eastern Orthodox nation. As for Prigozhin, he has about 2,000 mercenaries operating in Ukraine, recalling them in order to 'make a play for Moscow' would do no more than ensure he's the next one to have an accidental fall from a window. As for those 'ambitious commanders', their biggest fear is being tried for war crimes should Putin be overthrown, self interest and self preservation will ensure their loyalty.
The suggestion that critism from these two of the Russian military command would force Putin to withdraw is nothing more than wishful thinking, if anything, it's going to push him further towards using 'low-intensity' nukes, something Kadyrov was calling for after the Ukraine advance in Kharkiv.

[slowsider]

Prigozhin has bigger fish to fry in sub-Saharan Africa.

https://african.business/2022/09/energy ... try-trade/

[Horse]

But not only has he had to pull back from total take over, he is now losing the 4 bits he thought he could bargain with by saying 'OK I'll only take these bits'.

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

Let's see how long it is before irie posts this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183404

A large fire on the only crossing between the occupied Crimean peninsula and Russia was caused by a lorry explosion, Russian state media say.

The explosion on the road bridge then led to oil tankers on the rail section catching fire.

Footage showed a train ablaze, with the adjacent road crossing also appearing to have sustained damage.

Russian state media say traffic has been suspended.

"Today at 06:07 on the road part of the Crimean bridge from the side of the Taman Peninsula, a truck was blown up, which caused the ignition of seven fuel tanks of a railway train heading towards the Crimean peninsula," Russian state agency RIA Novosti quotes the National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAC) as saying.

[MingtheMerciless]

That’ll stir things up a bit. Reading between the lines it was sabotage attack rather than missile strike, either that or “lax smoking discipline” again.