Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[irie]

Good to be on the winning side, innit?

https://www.politico.eu/article/under-p ... o-ukraine/

Germany to send 50 armored vehicles to Ukraine after pressure to step up support

The announcement by Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht is yet another volte-face on military aid for Ukraine amid US criticism.

The Dingo is an armored vehicle that Germany used, for example, during its military mission in Afghanistan to ensure the safe transport of troops

BERLIN — Germany will send 50 “Dingo” armored vehicles to Ukraine, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht announced Thursday, marking another U-turn in the Berlin government’s stance on military support for Kyiv, just days after saying such a move was impossible

[irie]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/1 ... s-red-line

Russia warns US not to provide longer-range missiles to Ukraine

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said that if the United States decided to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles, it would cross a “red line” and become “a party to the conflict” in Ukraine.

In a briefing on Thursday, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added that Russia “reserves the right to defend its territory”.

Which means Crimea, of course.

[Mussels]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/1 ... s-red-line

Russia warns US not to provide longer-range missiles to Ukraine

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said that if the United States decided to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles, it would cross a “red line” and become “a party to the conflict” in Ukraine.

In a briefing on Thursday, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added that Russia “reserves the right to defend its territory”.

Which means Crimea, of course.

And Donbas after a quick refrendum if it decides it wants an excuse. There is regular shelling of Russian towns already so Putin's claimed aim of preventing war in Russia is another thing blown out of the water.

[irie]

Whoever controls the Kerch strait controls the Azov sea. The possible loss of Crimea which controls the Kerch strait, and the loss of Sevastopol, is obviously what Russia is brown trousering itself about.

[Supermofo]

Presumably Russia has committed it's best forces/equipment plus it's mercenary forces from Chechnya etc?

So what's it got left? A large number of conscripts and old stuff? And the nuclear option.

In terms of Russian threats against escalation with Nato though you'd assume that other than nuclear Russia would be absolutely creamed by Nato given current performance?

Not suggesting we'd want escalation at all but doesn't seem to hold the same threat if did before the invasion.

[slowsider]

Presumably Russia has committed it's best forces/equipment plus it's mercenary forces from Chechnya etc?

So what's it got left? A large number of conscripts and old stuff? And the nuclear option.

In terms of Russian threats against escalation with Nato though you'd assume that other than nuclear Russia would be absolutely creamed by Nato given current performance?

Not suggesting we'd want escalation at all but doesn't seem to hold the same threat if did before the invasion.

Don't forget the cream of the West got handed their arses by some mountain-dwelling mujahadin.

[Horse]

There is regular shelling of Russian towns already so Putin's claimed aim of preventing war in Russia is another thing blown out of the water.

And irregular whoopsies


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ru ... 2ae0ed800c

Social media users have speculated that an object that crashed in a Russian city around 220 miles from the Ukrainian border may have been a stray Russian hypersonic missile.

The incident took place in the Turkmen district of the Stavropol region on Wednesday according to the Ukrainian military center, which said that when emergency responders tried to control the flames, an explosion took place on the ground, injuring six people.

Russian media channels said the object was a Ukrainian Tu-141 Strizh reconnaissance drone, but the Ukrainian military center said that the wreckage found at the site of the explosion "does not support this version."

Images of the aftermath of the incident led Twitter users to note similarities between the wreckage of the aircraft and the Russian Kinzhal missile, in particular, the winglets and the separation mechanism of the weapon's booster, according to online publication Aerotime

"Anyone wondered what #crashed today in #russian Stavropol' region injuring 6 firefighters, you'd be very much surprised to know that it wasn't a 'Ukrainian UAV,' but a russian #Kinzhal missile," tweeted user LotA.

[Supermofo]

Don't forget the cream of the West got handed their arses by some mountain-dwelling mujahadin.

Everyone including the Russian's and the British 100 or so years before had that happen.

But that's a different sort of war to what's happening in Ukraine which is pretty much a conventional war.

[slowsider]

Don't forget the cream of the West got handed their arses by some mountain-dwelling mujahadin.

Everyone including the Russian's and the British 100 or so years before had that happen.

But that's a different sort of war to what's happening in Ukraine which is pretty much a conventional war.

Agreed, but 'doesnt seem to hold the same threat' is what got Putin into this...
Energising the Russian people in a perceived existential threat against their traditional foe may prove more effective than in fighting former iron curtain brethren.

[Mussels]

I suppose they could promote it internally as a battle against NATO whilst not actually engaging NATO.

[MingtheMerciless]

Lots of interesting equipment for the West to inspect, I expect most of it will be in the hold of a C-17 heading to the US at some point:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... re-vehicle

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... rfare-pods

[Yambo]

I suspect the 'West' will be surprised at how basic the equipment is.

[JamJar]

Don't forget the cream of the West got handed their arses by some mountain-dwelling mujahadin.

Everyone including the Russian's and the British 100 or so years before had that happen.

But that's a different sort of war to what's happening in Ukraine which is pretty much a conventional war.

It's a bit of both, Ukraine have used almost Guerrilla tactics to whittle away the Russian forces using small 2 and 3-man units with hand held anti-tank weaponry to take out large numbers of Russian Armour as well as drones.

[MingtheMerciless]

I suspect the 'West' will be surprised at how basic the equipment is.

Apparently at some point in the 90's/00's the US got a Russian IR flare dispenser. The flares burned with a guttering dirty flame and much to the US chagrin in tests their IR missiles/seekers went for the flare rather than the jet engine exhaust.

[Count Steer]

If regime change wasn't on the cards at the start of this it certainly is now, politicians have been promoting themselves for a few weeks and now there are open calls for a change of management at varying levels.
So far Putin has kept most Russians quiet, the nationalists were happy that Russia was showing the world how powerful it was, everyone else was happy they weren't involved. Now he needs to choose which side to keep happy.
Some people remember Putin saying he hadn't got started yet and think he has a secret stash of soldiers somewhere, some want WW3 but most still just don't want to be involved which means no conscripts fighting.
Putin has a reputation for coming out smelling of roses but it isn't going well for him

Interesting article in The Spectator suggesting that the main threat to Putin is from the ultra-nationalists. What follows could be worse. One example is the guy behind Wagner who are supposed to be helping eliminate naziism from Ukraine. The guy wears Waffen SS gear and has nazi tattoos.

[slowsider]

I suspect the 'West' will be surprised at how basic the equipment is.

The Russians may be surprised how much of the Light Brigade is still being deployed, even if it's not in Balaclava but Westminster.

[irie]

Don't forget the cream of the West got handed their arses by some mountain-dwelling mujahadin.

Everyone including the Russian's and the British 100 or so years before had that happen.

But that's a different sort of war to what's happening in Ukraine which is pretty much a conventional war.

It's a bit of both, Ukraine have used almost Guerrilla tactics to whittle away the Russian forces using small 2 and 3-man units with hand held anti-tank weaponry to take out large numbers of Russian Armour as well as drones.

As I understand it, deployment of small groups of highly motivated well armed troops on high speed vehicles with a decentralised command structure vs a force reliant on a highly centralised command structure. Which operated inside the Russian command and control cycle such that Russian responses were always too slow to respond.

[irie]

Latest Russian development: referendums in Russian annexed Ukraine territories which will undoubtedly be in favour of declaring themselves formally part of Russia ...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 022-09-19/

The Russian-backed, self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the neighbouring Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) said the planned referendums would be held from Sept. 23-27.

... presumably so that any future Ukrainian attack on those territories can be construed as an attack on Russia itself thus enabling the Kremlin to trigger a general mobilisation.

A not unexpected but potentially very dangerous escalation of the conflict.

[Mussels]

Threats of nukes is all Russia has left now.

[Mussels]

The nationalists want to use it as a way to force the Kremlin into declaring a full war but the Kremlin has been avoiding that even though Ukraine is already attacking Russian territory. I don't think there's anything new in this.