Major vs. marginal gains in safety

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The Spin Doctor
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Re: Major vs. marginal gains in safety

Post by The Spin Doctor »

Dodgy knees wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:33 am Cheers Spin,

It's good to hear the scientific side of it, but me being a twat, question everything where i don't see obvious logic.

1/5.. could not see the bike... Is this when bike overtaking and is behind another vehicle.??

1/3.. Looked but failed to see...aka not looking properly, too casual perhaps. If the eyes and brain aren't working together, you shouldn't be driving.

1/3.. misjudged, yes, I get this one. Vehicles moving faster than expected, Not enough time, also maybe a driver fannying around instead of getting up to speed quicker when joining a main road.

I also agree that drivers turn there heads in the direction of expected oncoming vehicles, but it's what's being processed in there head that is the worry. 👍
Sorry... completely missed this...

looked but COULD NOT see
- could be another vehicle between bike and driver when filtering but also when following in an offside position... which is why I make a big thing about lines of sight and making sure that it's not just you that can see the hazard but that you give the driver a chance to see the entire bike top to bottom, side to side - it's the only way your hi-vis and light can have ANY possible effect.
- could be roadside furniture or pedestrians trees Hedges wheelie bins... Anything again that blocks the Line of Sight
- Could be the structure of the car itself so cold beam blindness where the pillars supporting the roof if or headrests or another passengers in the car create blind spots which hides the bike. A lot of roundabout collisions are likely to be down to the conversion path converging paths keeping the bike and car at the same relative angle, so that the bike never comes out from behind the a-pillar. A lot of sideswipes happened because the bike is in the mirror blind spot and out of peripheral vision. If riders were a little more aware of the need to not just see but to be seen they might be a bit more cautious about where they rode. Could be the structure of the car itself so cold beam blindness where the pillars supporting the roof if or headrests or another passengers in the car create blind spots which hides the bike. A lot of roundabout collisions are likely to be down to the conversion path converging paths keeping the bike and car at the same relative angle, so that the bike never comes out from behind the a-pillar. A lot of sideswipes happened because the bike is in the mirror blind spot and out of peripheral vision. If riders were a little more aware of the need to not just see but to be seen they might be a bit more cautious about where they rode. But most just seem to think it's the driver problem not theirs and that the solution is for the driver to look harder. My favourite expression is drivers should look into their blind spot. Think about it. :)


Looked that failed to see

- it's easy to say not if a driver fails to see the bike they didn't look hard enough. The fact is there are 1.2 million motorcycles on the road in the UK covering several billion miles each year. There are around 100 fatal junction collisions in the same time period. We don't even know how many junctions riders pass whilst out riding those billions of miles. But this simple bit of maths indicates that drivers are overwhelmingly successful in seeing motorcyclists. The looked but failed to see error is actually remarkably rare. So we can boot the 'didn't look hard' enough and 'didn't look because they were distracted' explanations into touch in my opinion.Yes they might contribute to some of the crashes but it's far from the standard driver behaviour. If it was and they didn't look properly or they were peering at their phone, we've never get much past the end of our own road. So we have to look at the visual perception problems for an explanation not behaviour and that's what I've done with science of being seen.


Looked saw and misjudged

Occasionally I'm inconvenienced by a driver who pulls out then 'fannys around' but unless the rider is a) blind and b) travelling at warp speed it's just that an inconvenience. Do the maths and work out how close a bike has to be unable to avoid colliding with a car. Hint. You can brake a modern machine to a complete standstill from 30 miles per hour in around 10 m if you are reasonably good on the brakes. If you're more than 10 m away you should be able to stop if you're ready to take evasive action. Clearly braking distances increase dramatically with speed - roughly 4 times as you double your speed - and unfortunately many riders never do practice hard braking so aren't capable of stopping as quickly as this, but even so so the bike has to be surprisingly close to a junction before the collision becomes completely unavoidable.

My thinking in all three cases is that the solution really lies in the hands of the biker we need to be aware of the errors that drivers make and we need to have strategies ready to deploy when we see them making that mistake.

We have had add almost 5 decades of Think Bike and Ride bright safety campaigns and they have had next to no impact [sic] on crash stats. And that's because no one tells the biker what goes wrong, why it goes wrong or how to get out of trouble when it does go wrong. We rely on the driver not to make a mistake, and we rely on passive aids - DRLs and hi-vis - to keep us out of trouble. We don't put any effort in to staying out of trouble for ourselves.
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Re: Major vs. marginal gains in safety

Post by The Spin Doctor »

Horse wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:43 pm
Dodgy knees wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:58 pm Think it's when traffic oncoming, so I speed up my monoever, then when pulling back in needing to brake to lose speed. Not uncommon surely.
Just happened across this:

Table 8 shows that, as the oncoming vehicle speed increases, the frequency of 'negative time margins' rises sharply, particularly when it is above that of the overtaken car. It was suggested that drivers were primarily using the estimated distance to the oncoming car as a cue for deciding whether or not to overtake. Another overtaking study (Kaukinen 1972) has also found that, when the speed of an oncoming vehicle was higher than that of the vehicle being overtaken, the number of erroneous overtaking judgements was highest.

It is concluded therefore that the most serious misjudgements are of approaching vehicle speed, although a major misjudgement of distance could obviously put the driver at risk. Many of these misjudgements are attributable to the innate limitations of our perceptual apparatus, since often the judgements are having to be made on vehicles at very long distances. For example, at overtaken and oncoming vehicle speeds of 50 mph, the total overtaking distance required is of the order of 1500 ft.


Perception, 1980, volume 9, pages 183-216
Vision, visibility, and perception in driving
Brian L Hills
I think we talked about that years ago - I'm sure I've got Hills in the references on SOBS... if not, one to be added.

I was trying to explain this visual perception limitation thing and how how we need to be looking a third of a mile ahead on a typical open road overtake to a gung-ho overtaker (and yes, he was IAM-trained) whilst at the same time suggesting we look for reasons NOT to do something rather than reasons to do it. He overtook on a straight bit of road where there were several driveways on the offside plus a side turning.

We stopped and had a chat and he swore blind he'd checked the offside and there were no hazards, and that he'd been carefully weighing up the speed of the car and the open distance ahead and was convinced that the overtake was 'perfectly safe'.

so we did a bit of a loop and came back to the same bit of road about 20 mins later... this time I pulled up and got him off the bike and discussed how far ahead we need to see, then said 'turn round, do you recognise this bit of road'? It took a few hints before he realised it was the same road where he'd pulled the hairy overtaking.

He went a bit ashen, as he realised just what he'd missed... nicely mown grass, trimmed hedges, visible tarmac drives, a couple of wheelie bins, a mirror on the nearside... and a nice white fingerpost sign pointing clearly into the junction he hadn't spotted.

He was so focused on getting past the car and using the System he'd lost sight (literally) of the most elementary clues.

We ALL do it... I almost made the error on a BikeSafe - I'd pulled out to pass when I spotted the driveway. As I was pretty happy it was far too late for the driver I was about to pass to brake and turn across me, I simply backed off and matched speed and watched the driveway, ready to swing back in behind the car if something started to turn out. The lack of speed differential meant I was relatively safe doing that, but I was definitely in the 'need to show progress to the copper' mindset because I'd been told I was TOO cautious on the previous year's course. In my normal, more relaxed 'look for what can go wrong' style, I would probably (though not definitely) have spotted it and NOT pulled out.
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Re: Major vs. marginal gains in safety

Post by Horse »

Found this and it made me think of a thread here. Or somewhere else. Perhaps this one, perhaps not?


Ivers et al. 2016
Does an on-road motorcycle coaching program reduce crashes in novice riders? A randomised control trial

1,000 riders completed the training program
Included four hours of riding and group discussions
No evidence was found to show that on-road rider coaching reduced the risk of crashing
Increase in crash-related risk factors in the intervention group - increased riding exposure, speeding behaviours and rider confidence
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Re: Major vs. marginal gains in safety

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Horse wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:43 pm Found this and it made me think of a thread here. Or somewhere else. Perhaps this one, perhaps not?


Ivers et al. 2016
Does an on-road motorcycle coaching program reduce crashes in novice riders? A randomised control trial

1,000 riders completed the training program
Included four hours of riding and group discussions
No evidence was found to show that on-road rider coaching reduced the risk of crashing
Increase in crash-related risk factors in the intervention group - increased riding exposure, speeding behaviours and rider confidence
Might have been on my Facebook page... I got 'unfriended' by another instructor for posting it and generally questioning how much good training does ;)

I've always felt we need to move beyond 'technique' and 'the Perfect Ride' and start learning to avoid crashing - it's a very different goal and it's why I called my training 'Survival Skills' in the first place. It was 'insight training' before I'd heard the expression.
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Re: Major vs. marginal gains in safety

Post by Horse »

Hot_Air wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:12 pm
Horse wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:34 am I can only tell you what worked for me and where it failed ... ABS I had crashes due to braking.
I wonder about ABS because it's one of the oft-cited examples of risk compensation.
Wikipedia wrote:In a Munich study, part of a fleet of taxicabs were equipped with anti-lock brakes (ABS), while the remainder had conventional brake systems. In other respects, the two types of cars were identical. The crash rates, studied over three years, were a little higher for the cabs with ABS. Wilde concluded that drivers of ABS-equipped cabs took more risks, assuming that ABS would take care of them; non-ABS drivers were said to drive more carefully since they could not rely on ABS in a dangerous situation.
FYI (found while hunting down 'SHARP' links for Bigyin!)

Effects of Advanced (Anti-lock) Braking Systems (ABS) On Motorcycle Crashes – A Survey of 61 motorcyclists who crashed between 2010 and 2015 – Feb – 2017


https://motorcycleminds.org/virtuallibr ... _03_17.pdf


Interesting parallel with conspicuity & smidsy, where:
- does the driver look at all
- does the driver look in the right zones
- is the driver's view of the bike obstructed
- does the driver identify the bike
- does the driver make correct speed and distance decisions
etc

For ABS, the report includes:
- does the rider anticipate the situation, to reduce reaction time
- does the rider freeze, so not brake
- does the rider brake firmly enough to activate the ABS
etc
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