Corona Virus - Indian Variation

[wheelnut]

Yebbut, so far people don't seem to be overwhelming hospitals or ICUs or snuffing it in large numbers so exactly what is the problem?

I think so far being the operative words. Not sure the vaccine has broken the link between infection/serious illness and death as much as the government hoped it would. It certainly has to some degree, but as to how much we'll find out in the next few weeks as the new cases either get hospitalised, or don't.

[weeksy]

Yebbut, so far people don't seem to be overwhelming hospitals or ICUs or snuffing it in large numbers so exactly what is the problem?

I think so far being the operative words. Not sure the vaccine has broken the link between infection/serious illness and death as much as the government hoped it would. It certainly has to some degree, but as to how much we'll find out in the next few weeks as the new cases either get hospitalised, or don't.

You don't think we'd have noticed it in the past 2 months ?

[slowsider]

Yebbut, so far people don't seem to be overwhelming hospitals or ICUs or snuffing it in large numbers so exactly what is the problem?

I think so far being the operative words. Not sure the vaccine has broken the link between infection/serious illness and death as much as the government hoped it would. It certainly has to some degree, but as to how much we'll find out in the next few weeks as the new cases either get hospitalised, or don't.

You don't think we'd have noticed it in the past 2 months ?

yep

There were 16,135 new people with a confirmed positive test result for coronavirus on 23 June 2021. Between 17 June 2021 and 23 June 2021, there were 79,481 people who had a confirmed positive test result. This shows an increase of 43.9% compared to the previous 7 days.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[weeksy]

I think so far being the operative words. Not sure the vaccine has broken the link between infection/serious illness and death as much as the government hoped it would. It certainly has to some degree, but as to how much we'll find out in the next few weeks as the new cases either get hospitalised, or don't.

You don't think we'd have noticed it in the past 2 months ?

yep

There were 16,135 new people with a confirmed positive test result for coronavirus on 23 June 2021. Between 17 June 2021 and 23 June 2021, there were 79,481 people who had a confirmed positive test result. This shows an increase of 43.9% compared to the previous 7 days.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

and how many have died ? As far as i know, very few are dying currently and there's plenty of new variants in the past 2 months...

So clearly the vaccine is working ?

[slowsider]

You don't think we'd have noticed it in the past 2 months ?

yep

There were 16,135 new people with a confirmed positive test result for coronavirus on 23 June 2021. Between 17 June 2021 and 23 June 2021, there were 79,481 people who had a confirmed positive test result. This shows an increase of 43.9% compared to the previous 7 days.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

and how many have died ? As far as i know, very few are dying currently and there's plenty of new variants in the past 2 months...

So clearly the vaccine is working ?

Same source, deaths up 53%, admittedly on small figures.

[Greenman]

Delta Plus variant now apparently.

Will there be a Turbo version in the winter?

Delta Force Plus Turbo RS GTI Variant from some other country!

[wheelnut]

You don't think we'd have noticed it in the past 2 months ?

No. You don't get infected and then die the next day. It can take weeks to end up in ICU and then weeks more to die.

The numbers have only just started going up in the last few weeks, hospital admissions are starting to creep up.

Cases are up 43% over last week, admissions are up 24% over last week. Deaths are up 50% over last week.

I would say the death stat is misleading at the moment as the numbers are too small to show an accurate percentage change, but the rise in admissions is concerning.

The vaccines are working but they're about to have a good real world test.

[Supermofo]

but the rise in admissions is concerning.

Plus from what I've read it's younger un-vaccinated people that are going into hospital as well as the 10% or whatever of vaccinated people you'd expect. Either way as things stand increasing transmission isn't good.

In theory rising numbers of infection and non increasing or low hospital admissions is probably what we are long term aiming for. But with the current increase trend It'll be interesting if restrictions are removed mid July. We won't know for a while yet as we are in the experimentation phase.

Also it's a gamble with under 30's. They are most likely to not be protected but also most likely to be getting it. I suppose the most sensible option would be to restrict under 30's until they are all vaccinated, but that's never gonna happen. So either it'll be ok or we'll all be back to lockdown again if covid outpaces vaccine rates.

[weeksy]

You don't think we'd have noticed it in the past 2 months ?

No. You don't get infected and then die the next day. It can take weeks to end up in ICU and then weeks more to die.

The numbers have only just started going up in the last few weeks, hospital admissions are starting to creep up.

However, the variants have been here for more than a few weeks now, more like a few months, so we'd be seeing plenty more instances of hospitalisation and death if it were not working.

[Horse]

and how many have died ? As far as i know, very few are dying currently and there's plenty of new variants in the past 2 months...

So clearly the vaccine is working ?

There are still vaccinated people catching it, with some of them ending up in hospital.

.gov info 14.06.21:

The analysis suggests:
- the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
- the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses

One estimate is 2 million in the uk with long covid, so the potential effects of that on those - admittedly small - percentages shouldn't be underestimated.

[weeksy]

and how many have died ? As far as i know, very few are dying currently and there's plenty of new variants in the past 2 months...

So clearly the vaccine is working ?

There are still vaccinated people catching it, with some of them ending up in hospital.

.gov info 14.06.21:

The analysis suggests:
- the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
- the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses

One estimate is 2 million in the uk with long covid, so the potential effects of that on those - admittedly small - percentages shouldn't be underestimated.

I'm not saying there's not... what i'm saying is, there's a fuck load less people dying/hospitalising than previously.... That's unlikely to be coincidence ?

[Horse]

and how many have died ? As far as i know, very few are dying currently and there's plenty of new variants in the past 2 months...

So clearly the vaccine is working ?

There are still vaccinated people catching it, with some of them ending up in hospital.

.gov info 14.06.21:

The analysis suggests:
- the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
- the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses

One estimate is 2 million in the uk with long covid, so the potential effects of that on those - admittedly small - percentages shouldn't be underestimated.

I'm not saying there's not... what i'm saying is, there's a fuck load less people dying/hospitalising than previously.... That's unlikely to be coincidence ?

Ok, I may have read more into it than you intended

[wheelnut]

However, the variants have been here for more than a few weeks now, more like a few months, so we'd be seeing plenty more instances of hospitalisation and death if it were not working.

In terms of higher numbers, the infection rate is just starting to take off now. Hopefully it will be supressed by the vaccine, but it's one big experiment at the moment.

[weeksy]

However, the variants have been here for more than a few weeks now, more like a few months, so we'd be seeing plenty more instances of hospitalisation and death if it were not working.

In terms of higher numbers, the infection rate is just starting to take off now. Hopefully it will be supressed by the vaccine, but it's one big experiment at the moment.

What do you think will happen ? And what can/could we have done to help that ?

[Greenman]

but the rise in admissions is concerning.

Plus from what I've read it's younger un-vaccinated people that are going into hospital as well as the 10% or whatever of vaccinated people you'd expect. Either way as things stand increasing transmission isn't good.

In theory rising numbers of infection and non increasing or low hospital admissions is probably what we are long term aiming for. But with the current increase trend It'll be interesting if restrictions are removed mid July. We won't know for a while yet as we are in the experimentation phase.

Also it's a gamble with under 30's. They are most likely to not be protected but also most likely to be getting it. I suppose the most sensible option would be to restrict under 30's until they are all vaccinated, but that's never gonna happen. So either it'll be ok or we'll all be back to lockdown again if covid outpaces vaccine rates.

Whoa there Mr Mofo.

You think that the under 30's are the ones that will need to be locked down!

It should be the other way around surely?

Let the older more vulnerable people isolate if they want to isolate, they can do it for the rest of their lives if they so choose, but let the younger people live. Even if they have not had a vaccine it's very unlikely covid will kill them, they can still spread it but they say that about the vaccinated also, so what's the difference?

We can't go on indefinitely like this, it's affecting our young peoples education, social skills, mental health etc etc etc, how long do you want to see that continue?

At some point we as a nation are going to have to stand up and make our own personal decisions about how we will deal with covid in life going forward, and ignore Boris's 'one rule fit's all' solutions.

Covid is here for life just as the common cold, flu etc is, we need to live with it and re-gain our freedom to live as free human beings.

[wheelnut]

What do you think will happen ? And what can/could we have done to help that ?

My opinion is worth diddly squat, but I reckon the numbers will rise countrywide, but not as high as the peak in jan. Hospitaisations and deaths will follow the curve, at a reduced rate, but at a higher rate than they were hoping for. I know Mrs W's place is preparing for higher numbers again.

The big danger is that the increased infection numbers will help a mutation develop that escapes the vaccine. Then it's back down the snake.

[weeksy]

My opinion is worth diddly squat,

All our opinions are worth about that.... but hey, it's a forum, that's why we're here

[Supermofo]

but the rise in admissions is concerning.

Plus from what I've read it's younger un-vaccinated people that are going into hospital as well as the 10% or whatever of vaccinated people you'd expect. Either way as things stand increasing transmission isn't good.

In theory rising numbers of infection and non increasing or low hospital admissions is probably what we are long term aiming for. But with the current increase trend It'll be interesting if restrictions are removed mid July. We won't know for a while yet as we are in the experimentation phase.

Also it's a gamble with under 30's. They are most likely to not be protected but also most likely to be getting it. I suppose the most sensible option would be to restrict under 30's until they are all vaccinated, but that's never gonna happen. So either it'll be ok or we'll all be back to lockdown again if covid outpaces vaccine rates.

Whoa there Mr Mofo.

You think that the under 30's are the ones that will need to be locked down!

It should be the other way around surely?

Let the older more vulnerable people isolate if they want to isolate, they can do it for the rest of their lives if they so choose, but let the younger people live. Even if they have not had a vaccine it's very unlikely covid will kill them, they can still spread it but they say that about the vaccinated also, so what's the difference?

We can't go on indefinitely like this, it's affecting our young peoples education, social skills, mental health etc etc etc, how long do you want to see that continue?

At some point we as a nation are going to have to stand up and make our own personal decisions about how we will deal with covid in life going forward, and ignore Boris's 'one rule fit's all' solutions.

Covid is here for life just as the common cold, flu etc is, we need to live with it and re-gain our freedom to live as free human beings.

You've misunderstood what I was saying completely.

At the moment infections and hospitalisations are occurring in the under 30s more than in the double jabbed oldies.

Previously (and I think this would have been a better option) it would have made sense to lock down the older more vulnerable. But now the opposite is true. So it would have been more sensible to lockdown only those not vaccinated. But instead what's more likely to happen is that they'll lockdown everyone if the numbers go the wrong way rather than look at less popular but probably more effective measures.

Will we have to live with this yes of course. But a few months back it made sense to protect older people. Now it's the younger people that need protecting.

Plus I'm only 44 for fuck sake I'm hardly a pensioner! I can't wait for this shit to be over, but targeted measures would be much more effective than letting rampant infections occur in everyone without a vaccine.

[Horse]

The big danger is that the increased infection numbers will help a mutation develop that escapes the vaccine.

And, of course, that's worldwide.

[Greenman]

Plus from what I've read it's younger un-vaccinated people that are going into hospital as well as the 10% or whatever of vaccinated people you'd expect. Either way as things stand increasing transmission isn't good.

In theory rising numbers of infection and non increasing or low hospital admissions is probably what we are long term aiming for. But with the current increase trend It'll be interesting if restrictions are removed mid July. We won't know for a while yet as we are in the experimentation phase.

Also it's a gamble with under 30's. They are most likely to not be protected but also most likely to be getting it. I suppose the most sensible option would be to restrict under 30's until they are all vaccinated, but that's never gonna happen. So either it'll be ok or we'll all be back to lockdown again if covid outpaces vaccine rates.

Whoa there Mr Mofo.

You think that the under 30's are the ones that will need to be locked down!

It should be the other way around surely?

Let the older more vulnerable people isolate if they want to isolate, they can do it for the rest of their lives if they so choose, but let the younger people live. Even if they have not had a vaccine it's very unlikely covid will kill them, they can still spread it but they say that about the vaccinated also, so what's the difference?

We can't go on indefinitely like this, it's affecting our young peoples education, social skills, mental health etc etc etc, how long do you want to see that continue?

At some point we as a nation are going to have to stand up and make our own personal decisions about how we will deal with covid in life going forward, and ignore Boris's 'one rule fit's all' solutions.

Covid is here for life just as the common cold, flu etc is, we need to live with it and re-gain our freedom to live as free human beings.

You've misunderstood what I was saying completely.

At the moment infections and hospitalisations are occurring in the under 30s more than in the double jabbed oldies.

Previously (and I think this would have been a better option) it would have made sense to lock down the older more vulnerable. But now the opposite is true. So it would have been more sensible to lockdown only those not vaccinated. But instead what's more likely to happen is that they'll lockdown everyone if the numbers go the wrong way rather than look at less popular but probably more effective measures.

Will we have to live with this yes of course. But a few months back it made sense to protect older people. Now it's the younger people that need protecting.

Plus I'm only 44 for fuck sake I'm hardly a pensioner! I can't wait for this shit to be over, but targeted measures would be much more effective than letting rampant infections occur in everyone without a vaccine.

I don't think i misunderstood.

What i am trying to say is that even though the younger gen is currently more likely to catch or spread the virus, they are very much less likely to die or become seriously ill from it, so why would keeping the younger gen locked down be a good option considering the virus can still be spread by the older vaccinated of our community?

I agree with the targeting of rules, it would be a much better way of doing it as long as they don't make them totally uncontrollable by making them so complicated.

Boris "you can now go out but only if your under 30 years old, but over 30's can go out but only if they are under 30 and have had a vaccine, over 50's need to stay in and isolate if they so choose but don't isolate unless you think it's right, under 50's should isolate unless they have had a vaccine or are under 30 years old and have had 1 vaccine and are thinking about getting second dose with the next 2 weeks, anyone over 60, well your fucked'

Stay at home.

Protect our corrupt capitalist ventures

Go poor....