Corona Virus - Indian Variation

[irie]

There is still no evidence that the Indian variant is causing an increase in UK hospital admissions or deaths. The most likely scenario appears to be that the Kent variant is being out-competed by the (probably) more infectious but less lethal (per infection) Indian variant.

And that’s the current general consensus view. They are hoping it stays that way.

Bear in mind that allowing it to increase exponentially isn’t ideal, even if the vaccine prevents hospitals being overwhelmed, as that’s when new variants seem to emerge.

In general, viruses mutate to become less deadly. This appears to be what is happening in the UK, and judging by infections and death rates also in India. It happened, for example, with the post WW1 flu epidemic so hopefully it will also happen with Covid-19.

[irie]

..., for example, with the post WW1 flu epidemic so hopefully it will also happen with Covid-19.

I was typing as you posted that - post-WW1 there certainly wasn't the mobility we have now - I'm not sure that model will stand up in 2021.

As said earlier:

... In general, viruses mutate to become less deadly ...

[Scotsrich]

Tourism as we know it will be flipped on it's head, same with business travel, we'll be going back to pre-1960's on that note.

Just to pick on that as an example, the UK cannot sustain UK based tourism for UK tourists if they don't go abroad, there isn't the capability, so that's going to be a messy couple of years as it gears up, crowded beaches and tourist towns will be overwhelmed.

That's before the big ticket items like the housing market changes, corporate buildings, etc.

I agree there.

You can’t get near local beaches at weekends because of cars abandoned on the side of the road. It’s going to get worse in the run up to summer.

I’ve got a week booked in a cottage near Oban mid August but I’m beginning to think it was a mistake. I was near there last year as well but it was September so it wasn’t so bad being after school holidays.

[Mussels]

It looks like people are booking 2 holidays at the same time and ditching the UK one at the last minute if it's OK to go abroad, that's going to cause chaos.

I won't book anything, the last thing I want from a holiday is to be near a load of people who were desperate to get away.

[Yorick]

We don't want you feelthee Engleesh peegs over here.

[Saga Lout]

I won't book anything, the last thing I want from a holiday is to be near a load of people I was desperate to get away from.

Corrected and yeah, that. ^^

[Supermofo]

We don't want you feelthee Engleesh peegs over here.

I shall wave 2 fingers at you from Torquay in August...if I can stand up in the howling gale and you can see through the impenetrable fog and rain

[Yorick]

We don't want you feelthee Engleesh peegs over here.

I shall wave 2 fingers at you from Torquay in August...if I can stand up in the howling gale and you can see through the impenetrable fog and rain

We've had howling gales for a week or so. And due for at least another week. But it's 28c, so not too unwelcome.

[Supermofo]

We don't want you feelthee Engleesh peegs over here.

I shall wave 2 fingers at you from Torquay in August...if I can stand up in the howling gale and you can see through the impenetrable fog and rain

We've had howling gales for a week or so. And due for at least another week. But it's 28c, so not too unwelcome.

Current feels like temp in Hertford of 10 Spring is very very late

[Yorick]

I shall wave 2 fingers at you from Torquay in August...if I can stand up in the howling gale and you can see through the impenetrable fog and rain

We've had howling gales for a week or so. And due for at least another week. But it's 28c, so not too unwelcome.

Current feels like temp in Hertford of 10 Spring is very very late

Our lass is half way through 2 weeks in Marlow. She can't wait to get home.

mar.jpg (67.02 KiB) Viewed 1109 times

[irie]

If I was in Marlow I'd feel just the same.

[slowsider]

..., for example, with the post WW1 flu epidemic so hopefully it will also happen with Covid-19.

I was typing as you posted that - post-WW1 there certainly wasn't the mobility we have now - I'm not sure that model will stand up in 2021.

Post ww1 the demobilisation of troops helped spread it.

[Cousin Jack]

Post ww1 the demobilisation of troops helped spread it.

Not to mention about 10 million Displaced Persons.

[irie]

Looks like holidays in Germany are off for the meantime.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germa ... a-57628027

Coronavirus: Germany declares UK a virus variant region

Germany classified Britain a "virus variant area" due to the spread of the COVID-19 variant first identified in India. The warning means stricter restrictions and quarantine measures for those arriving from the UK.

Germany has classified the UK as an area of variant of concern, with effect from 23 May. Therefore a ban on transportation and entry into Germany applies from 23 May.

[JackyJoll]

the movement of people was a lot slower, you didn't have hundreds of thousands of people a day flying in and out of countries from the other side of the world at such speed.

All they had was Alcock and Brown.

[wheelnut]

There is still no evidence that the Indian variant is causing an increase in UK hospital admissions or deaths. The most likely scenario appears to be that the Kent variant is being out-competed by the (probably) more infectious but less lethal (per infection) Indian variant.

And that’s the current general consensus view. They are hoping it stays that way.

Bear in mind that allowing it to increase exponentially isn’t ideal, even if the vaccine prevents hospitals being overwhelmed, as that’s when new variants seem to emerge.

In general, viruses mutate to become less deadly. This appears to be what is happening in the UK, and judging by infections and death rates also in India. It happened, for example, with the post WW1 flu epidemic so hopefully it will also happen with Covid-19.

I’m not sure they mutate to be less deadly, they mutate randomly. What does happen though is that, as a population, we develop an immunity to them. That does take time though, and generally more than a year.

[irie]

Looks like holidays in Germany are off for the meantime.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germa ... a-57628027

Coronavirus: Germany declares UK a virus variant region

Germany classified Britain a "virus variant area" due to the spread of the COVID-19 variant first identified in India. The warning means stricter restrictions and quarantine measures for those arriving from the UK.

Germany has classified the UK as an area of variant of concern, with effect from 23 May. Therefore a ban on transportation and entry into Germany applies from 23 May.

And now holidays in France ...

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-05-26/

France imposes quarantine on UK visitors ahead of summer tourist season

France on Wednesday declared a mandatory quarantine period for people coming from Britain due to the increasing prevalence there of a highly contagious coronavirus variant first detected in India.

... but will it apply to all UK visitors or only to those not fully vaccinated?

[wheelnut]

A good chunk of today’s positive tests are in scotlandshire apparently, and mainly among men. Wonder how that happened?

[irie]

Yebbut, so far people don't seem to be overwhelming hospitals or ICUs or snuffing it in large numbers so exactly what is the problem?

[ZRX61]

Yebbut, so far people don't seem to be overwhelming hospitals or ICUs or snuffing it in large numbers so exactly what is the problem?

Possibly because every covid vaccine works against this variant?.. so if you're vaccinated, no worries.