Corona Virus - Indian Variation

[irie]

Earlier travel bans would not have prevented the spread of the 'Indian' variant, they would have merely delayed the inevitable.

Absolutely we'd have got it, but no way as fast or in the number we already have. We've managed to keep a lid on the SA and Brazilian variants, we've opened the door to the Indian one.

Delaying the onset of infections does only that.

[wheelnut]

Absolutely we'd have got it, but no way as fast or in the number we already have. We've managed to keep a lid on the SA and Brazilian variants, we've opened the door to the Indian one.

Yet we were still one of the first countries to close the Indian door. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but you can only act on evidence as it appears unfortunately.

[irie]

News and media say that in the NW and Bedford etc. the Indian variant is taking over from the Kent variant but I don't recall seeing any data indicating increasing deaths from the Indian variant. Doesn't seem to be any more dangerous than the Kent variant? So what's the big deal especially when current vaccines appear to be just as effective against the Indian variant as they are against the Kent variant. So a load of vaccine deniers are getting Covid, what's surprising about this?

[wheelnut]

So what's the big deal especially when current vaccines appear to be just as effective against the Indian variant as they are against the Kent variant.

If it’s just a little bit more transmissible than the Kent flavour then it should be no great shakes, but if it’s 50% or greater more transmissible then I think we are still at the point where maths can bite us badly.

[Horse]

So what's the big deal especially when current vaccines appear to be just as effective against the Indian variant as they are against the Kent variant.

If it’s just a little bit more transmissible than the Kent flavour then it should be no great shakes, but if it’s 50% or greater more transmissible then I think we are still at the point where maths can bite us badly.

And, of course, it won't be just 'deniers' who may suffer. Some people haven't yet been vaccinated, some can't be. They are at risk. It may not be as big a deal as a few months ago but, for them, it's still a deal.

[wheelnut]

And, of course, it won't be just 'deniers' who may suffer. Some people haven't yet been vaccinated, some can't be. They are at risk. It may not be as big a deal as a few months ago but, for them, it's still a deal.

Even those who have been vaccinated or infected previously are still at risk from another wave, less risk, but still a risk.

We’ll know in a couple of weeks.

[irie]

So what's the big deal especially when current vaccines appear to be just as effective against the Indian variant as they are against the Kent variant.

If it’s just a little bit more transmissible than the Kent flavour then it should be no great shakes, but if it’s 50% or greater more transmissible then I think we are still at the point where maths can bite us badly.

Show the maths please.

[Supermofo]

And, of course, it won't be just 'deniers' who may suffer. Some people haven't yet been vaccinated, some can't be. They are at risk. It may not be as big a deal as a few months ago but, for them, it's still a deal.

Even those who have been vaccinated or infected previously are still at risk from another wave, less risk, but still a risk.

We’ll know in a couple of weeks.

Also seems some of those in hospital had had 1 vaccine dose and 1 of them both. So even vaccinated people can end up in trouble. I'm guessing some because no vaccine is 100% hopefully rather than the Indian variant getting around it.

Although Robert Peston posted this, but I've not seen anyone else saying the same so he could be talking bollocks
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-05-17/cov ... ose-to-nil


The health secretary said again on Monday that the evidence, from "viral neutralisation assays" taking place at Oxford, suggests the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant.

But it is important to note he did not say he is confident the AstraZeneca vaccine is as effective at reducing severe disease in those who catch the Indian variant.

I am told there are early signs that for the Indian variant the AZ vaccine may be between 10 and 15 percentage points less effective against severe disease. The efficacy of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is thought to be better.

To summarise: The AZ vaccine is still very much worth having, though it may work somewhat less well against the Indian variant.

[wheelnut]

Show the maths please.

Happy reading!

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... tement.pdf

[irie]

Show the maths please.

Happy reading!

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... tement.pdf

Thanks for posting it. I read it but could find no maths, rather a series of tentative conclusions from models.

This made me chuckle.

2. Overall, the epidemic in England could be either flat, shrinking slowly, or growing slightly. There are local areas in all nations where the epidemic is increasing and some localities, such as parts of the North West and Bedford, have fast growth of S-gene positive variants that is concerning. This includes the B.1.617.2 variant.

Edit - found this in the BMJ ...

SPI-M-O, Sage’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Operational) subgroup, reviewed modelling from Imperial College London, the University of Warwick, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

... but anyone's guess what the models are. Ferguson's Imperial College model is a crock of shit.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-revie ... ons-model/

[wheelnut]

Why did it make you chuckle? That’s where we are at the moment; at the fingers crossed stage.

Ferguson’s model, despite popular opinion is pretty well regarded as being accurate.

[Horse]

Ferguson's Imperial College model is a crock of shit.

Which modelling (given the benefit of a year's hindsight) was most accurate and why?

[wheelnut]

Which modelling (given the benefit of a year's hindsight) was most accurate and why?

The headline one that people seized on was the figure of 500k deaths. What he actually said was there could be 500k deaths if no interventions were made.

We’ve had a year of lockdowns, and a successful vaccination program and deaths are still 130k and I’m not sure we’re at the final chapter yet.

[irie]

Why did it make you chuckle? That’s where we are at the moment; at the fingers crossed stage.

I can do the maths on half a page of A4 double spaced to get the same result. All you have to do is to make three different assumptions about transmissability, one a bit lower than B.1.1.7, the second the same as B.1.1.7, and the third a bit higher.

Ferguson’s model, despite popular opinion is pretty well regarded as being accurate.

Accurate my arse, its funny how poor people's memories are, just for starters you've forgotten about the predictions of 500,000 deaths!

The model is full of logical holes and omissions partly because it is based on SARS assumptions.

You want to modify it? It's ~15,000 lines of linear code so modify it at your peril. FYI 15,000 lines of code, probably converted from Fortran, is about 250 sheets of paper ... about 80 metres of paper! Good luck with that, even Microsoft couldn't make head or tail of it.

Edit: 80 metres

[wheelnut]

]

I can do the maths on half a page of A4 double spaced to get the same result. All you have to do is to make three different assumptions about transmissability, one a bit lower than B.1.1.7, the second the same as B.1.1.7, and the third a bit higher.

I think the not knowing is the point. Another couple of weeks and we'll have a better idea. Bear in mind that Boris co didn’t delay the 17th May reopening so i’m not sure where all the criticism is coming from. All they are saying is that we have a tense couple of weeks to look forward to.

]
Accurate my arse, its funny how poor people's memories are, just for starters you've forgotten about the predictions of 500,000 deaths!

The model is full of logical holes and omissions partly because it is based on SARS assumptions.

The 500k estimate was probably accurate, and the model would have evolved as more became known about a brand new virus. That’s what’s science does, it adapts as information becomes available. Would you rather no modelling or interpretation is done until every last thing is known about it?

[irie]

]

I can do the maths on half a page of A4 double spaced to get the same result. All you have to do is to make three different assumptions about transmissability, one a bit lower than B.1.1.7, the second the same as B.1.1.7, and the third a bit higher.

I think the not knowing is the point. Another couple of weeks and we'll have a better idea. Bear in mind that Boris co didn’t delay the 17th May reopening so i’m not sure where all the criticism is coming from. All they are saying is that we have a tense couple of weeks to look forward to.

]
Accurate my arse, its funny how poor people's memories are, just for starters you've forgotten about the predictions of 500,000 deaths!

The model is full of logical holes and omissions partly because it is based on SARS assumptions.

The 500k estimate was probably accurate, and the model would have evolved as more became known about a brand new virus. That’s what’s science does, it adapts as information becomes available. Would you rather no modelling or interpretation is done until every last thing is known about it?

The 500,000 estimate was absolutely not accurate, Ferguson couldn't modify the model for the simple reason that he no longer knew exactly how it worked. Documentation? There will be virtually nothing except a few scraps of paper and in-line comments at best. Seen it all before.

My professional specialisation was Operations Research specialising in Linear Programming and mathematical modelling. I've written hundreds of thousands of lines of code. I know academic shit when I smell it.

[irie]

There is still no evidence that the Indian variant is causing an increase in UK hospital admissions or deaths. The most likely scenario appears to be that the Kent variant is being out-competed by the (probably) more infectious but less lethal (per infection) Indian variant.

[wheelnut]

There is still no evidence that the Indian variant is causing an increase in UK hospital admissions or deaths. The most likely scenario appears to be that the Kent variant is being out-competed by the (probably) more infectious but less lethal (per infection) Indian variant.

And that’s the current general consensus view. They are hoping it stays that way.

Bear in mind that allowing it to increase exponentially isn’t ideal, even if the vaccine prevents hospitals being overwhelmed, as that’s when new variants seem to emerge.

[weeksy]

I know this is a bit of a wide open question at this point, but what next? Continue for the next few years with very challenging travel restrictions? If things continue like this then the UK is going to have to change quite significantly, it's been not too bad so far because everyone assumed it's temporary, but if we're talking another couple of years then it will be huge.

TBH i can see another year of minimal interaction be that in terms of business, holidays or even socialising... I think it's still going to hit the UK and the world at large for at least another year. It's a very weird time to be a human at the moment.

We're due to go to France in Aug for 12 days.. Which i'm still planning and hoping will happen... but i'm not 100%.

[Yorick]

Went into town last night and 3/4 of bars are shut and nearly all the restaurants. All waiting patiently for customers.

But there's a couple of nice new restaurants being created and 1 huge hotel being built, so they're hopeful and optimistic