The startle effect

[Hot_Air]

Have you read @The Spin Doctor’s article about the ‘startle effect’? I have, and it made me wonder:

• If we want to reduce SMIDSYs, we need to accept that we will startle some drivers. So, should we slow down on our approach to junctions because it gives drivers the extra cognitive time to react to being startled by a bike?

• The Highway Code’s stopping distances are bollocks because their ‘thinking time’ is entirely unrealistic. We should give ourselves more thinking distance. Is the 2-second rule enough? While brakes have improved, two seconds is scarcely enough thinking time to process being startled.

• What else should we learn from aviation and pilots’ training?

[weeksy]

So, should we slow down on our approach to junctions because it gives drivers the extra cognitive time to react to being startled by a bike?

Probably. But then I wouldn't own a fast motorbike if being 100% safe was a priority. I accept I do things differently on bikes than I would out in a car. Just how it is.

[Horse]

So, should we slow down on our approach to junctions because it gives drivers the extra cognitive time to react to being startled by a bike?

Probably. But then I wouldn't own a fast motorbike if being 100% safe was a priority. I accept I do things differently on bikes than I would out in a car. Just how it is.

Slowing down gives you an excuse for accelerating

It's no secret that, for whatever combination of reasons, drivers do sometimes pull out in front of (or into) bikes. Accepting that as 'not being 100% safe' doesn't mean that you have to ignore the opportunity to swing the odds slightly more in your favour. Knock 10mph off your speed, you've shortened reaction distance and roughly halved your stopping distance. Move laterally across the lane, you've done something positive to attract the driver's attention and given the driver further to go to get you (and more time for you to react).

Just because someone else is determined to have a crash, doesn't mean that you have to join in

[weeksy]

So, should we slow down on our approach to junctions because it gives drivers the extra cognitive time to react to being startled by a bike?

Probably. But then I wouldn't own a fast motorbike if being 100% safe was a priority. I accept I do things differently on bikes than I would out in a car. Just how it is.

Slowing down gives you an excuse for accelerating

It's no secret that, for whatever combination of reasons, drivers do sometimes pull out in front of (or into) bikes. Accepting that as 'not being 100% safe' doesn't mean that you have to ignore the opportunity to swing the odds slightly more in your favour. Knock 10mph off your speed, you've shortened reaction distance and roughly halved your stopping distance. Move laterally across the lane, you've done something positive to attract the driver's attention and given the driver further to go to get you (and more time for you to react).

Just because someone else is determined to have a crash, doesn't mean that you have to join in

I'd rather give up than ride like that.

[Horse]

I'd rather give up than ride like that

You already do, whether you acknowledge it or not.

If you slow down at all, whether for a blind bend or a car at a junction, then you are recognising risk and taking action.

If a car pulls out in front from a side road, would you brake hard, or say "I'd rather give up than ride like that"?

The actions you take are just a matter of degree. But you're taking some action.

[weeksy]

I'd rather give up than ride like that

You already do, whether you acknowledge it or not.

If you slow down at all, whether for a blind bend or a car at a junction, then you are recognising risk and taking action.

If a car pulls out in front from a side road, would you brake hard, or say "I'd rather give up than ride like that"?

The actions you take are just a matter of degree. But you're taking some action.

Granted, I must. But to consciously do it, every junction, every ride, every time, that's not happening. I like to ride at a decent pace, if I can't do that in the majority of instances, then I'll not ride

[Horse]

I'd rather give up than ride like that

You already do, whether you acknowledge it or not.

If you slow down at all, whether for a blind bend or a car at a junction, then you are recognising risk and taking action.

If a car pulls out in front from a side road, would you brake hard, or say "I'd rather give up than ride like that"?

The actions you take are just a matter of degree. But you're taking some action.

Granted, I must. But to consciously do it, every junction, every ride, every time, that's not happening. I like to ride at a decent pace, if I can't do that in the majority of instances, then I'll not ride

You underestimate the amount of mental work you're doing while riding. You're already choosing where on the lane width to ride, what speed (and how much and how quickly to change it, up or down), what gear to select, what signals to give, etc.

[Cousin Jack]

I am not sure if I am kidding myself, but I find that I can often predict when another driver is going to do something stupid. So then I don't get startled, I am already off the power and at least covering the brake.

How do I tell? No idea really, I think it is a combination of pretty much everything, but it works (sometimes). Several times it has saved my ass, cars indicating one direction but turning the other way. A recent one was a car that pulled out and crawled across my path at a walking pace on a 60 mph road. I just knew it would pull out, so was already easing off. The downside is that sometimes the buggers do something (position, speed, direction driver is looking, indicators) that you just know they are turning right. And then they don't.

[weeksy]

You already do, whether you acknowledge it or not.

If you slow down at all, whether for a blind bend or a car at a junction, then you are recognising risk and taking action.

If a car pulls out in front from a side road, would you brake hard, or say "I'd rather give up than ride like that"?

The actions you take are just a matter of degree. But you're taking some action.

Granted, I must. But to consciously do it, every junction, every ride, every time, that's not happening. I like to ride at a decent pace, if I can't do that in the majority of instances, then I'll not ride

You underestimate the amount of mental work you're doing while riding. You're already choosing where on the lane width to ride, what speed (and how much and how quickly to change it, up or down), what gear to select, what signals to give, etc.

I think you're giving me credit for both more ability and intelligence than I actually have.

[Horse]

I am not sure if I am kidding myself, but I find that I can often predict when another driver is going to do something stupid. So then I don't get startled, I am already off the power and at least covering the brake.

That's the idea of avoiding the surprise / startle effects - which can result in substantially extended reaction times. Trouble is, sometimes you don't get those inklings and it's when something happens that you're not expecting that things can go to pot.

Motorcyclists aren't particularly inventive, there are just a few 'gotchas' that make up the majority of crashes (with just a few variations):
- junctions, drivers turning in or out
- bends, running wide etc.
- overtaking (inc filtering)
And the ways they go wrong are largely predictable. So all riders need to do is assess the situation, guess where it could go wrong, then be honest and realistic about what has to be done.

Basically, it's about taking personal responsibility. 'Internal locus of control'.

[Horse]

I think you're giving me credit for both more ability and intelligence than I actually have.

OK, I've never seen you ride, but ...

... if you can shovel a bike around a track briskly then your machine control can't be too bad.

For road riding, you will be making similar decisions. But it's down to your priorities. If you're content to approach junctions that have a vehicle waiting to turn in or out, but without taking any precautionary actions, then you just need to accept the implications.

[The Spin Doctor]

So, should we slow down on our approach to junctions because it gives drivers the extra cognitive time to react to being startled by a bike?

Probably. But then I wouldn't own a fast motorbike if being 100% safe was a priority. I accept I do things differently on bikes than I would out in a car. Just how it is.

We're not talking creep along to the junction, but it's no coincidence that in London, the riders killed at junctions were more often speeding than not, and that includes in 20s... drivers tend to overestimate distance / underestimate speed and think they have more time to pull out anyway, and when bikes are moving faster than the traffic around them it just makes it more difficult. And it's also worth remembering that if you double your speed, you quadruple your stopping distance... relatively minor increases in speed have surprising impacts on lengthening stopping distances... but the physics works the other way - if you halve your speed, your stopping distance is ONE QUARTER of what it was... which means that relatively minor reductions in speed have surprising benefits in reducing stopping distances. From 25 mph, I can stop the bike in three bike lengths. That should avoid just about every urban SMIDSY.

The lack of width of a bike makes it easy to hide, but it also confers the opposite benefit - we can usually get out from behind things to SEE and BE SEEN - but a surprising number of riders make absolutely zero effort either to see what's about to wipe them out or to help the driver spot them before he / she pulls out.

I can honestly say that in 16 years and 500,000 miles of despatching, most of which was in London, I never once had a SMIDSY. I had a few near-misses including some butt-puckerers in the early years but I learned to look for the clues. The trick is to listen to Spidey Sense... there are many times you look at the developing situation and alarm bells go off... or should do. In my experience, the times to worry are:

CANNOT BE SEEN
- if the driver's looking the wrong way / bike's hidden behind an obstacle

LOOKED, BUT FAILED TO SEE
- when there's a fair-sized gap between you and the car ahead and a car relatively close behind
- when there's empty space ahead and a gap in a stream of traffic coming the other way
- when the vehicle that's about to turn will get to the junction just about the same time as you do
- when the second vehicle is following another vehicle into the manoeuvre

LOOKED, SAW BUT MISJUDGED
- when you're on a faster road, or riding faster than the traffic around you

And don't forget... SMIDSYs happen when vehicles turn across the bike's path from the opposite direction - this one's actually the killer crash in urban areas. Most riders are totally unaware of that little factoid.

[The Spin Doctor]

Granted, I must. But to consciously do it, every junction, every ride, every time, that's not happening. I like to ride at a decent pace, if I can't do that in the majority of instances, then I'll not ride

Guess what. I'm the wrong side of 60 now and in places I ride faster than I did when I was 25. Quite a bit faster, sometimes. Why? I'm just more selective about where I slow down.

I took an old VD'er out on a course up in the Peaks some years ago, and he was a bit gung-ho everywhere. He was a bit shocked when we backtracked along the route he'd just ridden pretty quick and found that he'd shaved past a blind farmyard entrance, with fresh mud turning out onto the road.

He over-compensated, and we spent the next two hours creeping round like old grannies.

Eventually, we were back where we'd started. I went in front and said "I'm going to ride this road as if I weren't on a training course" and I set off with him behind me... sort of. I kept having to slow down to let him catch up. When we stopped I asked what the difference was between me riding that road and him. He actually said "you were ballistically quick, much quicker than me..." then he twigged... "Oh! But only in some places... where you could be fairly certain nothing would go wrong. And if you couldn't see a hazard, that's when you opened it up".

He'd finally nailed it. We did two more runs down the same road, once in each direction for good measure. FINALLY, after over-running on the course by nearly two hours, he figured it. His last run was exactly what I wanted... slowing pro-actively where he detected a genuine threat, but winding it on where he looked at the road and couldn't see any reason to slow down

[The Spin Doctor]

I think you're giving me credit for both more ability and intelligence than I actually have.

"No, I honestly don't think so"... is the WRONG ANSWER

[Hot_Air]

I wouldn't own a fast motorbike if being 100% safe was a priority. I accept I do things differently on bikes than I would out in a car. Just how it is ... I'd rather give up than ride like that.

@weeksy’s post matters because it reflects many people’s views, including some of my mates. Until safety messages can address what makes riders tick, they will fall on deaf ears. And these messages can’t go against why riding makes us feel alive – freedom matters, including freedom from being mollycoddled.

Three of my friends have been knocked off their bikes by car drivers. How many of them were interested in learning how to avoid being hit again? None of them. And these guys were my slower mates. Counter-intuitively, my quicker friends ride more defensively (and many of them have invested in advanced training).

If @weeksy isn’t convinced, neither are many riders. Safety advice needs pitching differently, and even the word "safety" is unhelpful. Would "riding proactively" sound better than "riding safely"?

[Horse]

If @weeksy isn’t convinced, neither are many riders. Safety advice needs pitching differently, and even the word "safety" is unhelpful. Would "riding proactively" sound better than "riding safely"?

Really good point. It overlaps with other discussions and 'challenges'. For example: does 'advanced' riding (or driving) really contain anything really beneficial that isn't in 'L' training?

The main benefits probably come from increased 'insight'. The GDE matrix is an interesting tool for assessing training content.

But, as I said earlier, personal responsibility is important. If the belief is that 'car drivers cause crashes' along with 'not my fault', then that's abdicating responsibility.

[Cousin Jack]

But, as I said earlier, personal responsibility is important. If the belief is that 'car drivers cause crashes' along with 'not my fault', then that's abdicating responsibility.

Reminds me of something said to me many years ago by a management guru.

If your boss doesn't do what you want, it is YOUR fault. People react to what we do, what we say, and what we look like. If your boss isn't doing what you want, change one or more of those things.

Not sure the analogy can be pushed too far on the road, but car drivers can ONLY react to us when they see or hear us. Go too fast and they don't have time to react, so it can only be your fault. It is certainly a problem on fast roads, if you are travelling at Warp Factor 7 they may pull out in front of you because, quite literally, they looked and you weren't there.

[Horse]

Go too fast and they don't have time to react, so it can only be your fault. It is certainly a problem on fast roads, if you are travelling at Warp Factor 7 they may pull out in front of you because, quite literally, they looked and you weren't there.

Yup, there's research to show that experienced drivers only look where they expect traffic to be. If you're not there, they're less likely to notice you.

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Let alone any other issues such as being obscured or time to arrival illusion.

[Cousin Jack]

I was thinking of tarmac surfing on large roundabouts, really big ones where circulating speeds of 60 mph and more were entirely possible. The problem was that visibility for traffic waiting to join was sometimes only 20 yards or so.

20 yard = 66 feet
60 mph = 88 fps

So you look, see it is clear, start to pull out and BANG.
Most of the roundabouts like that now have traffic lights on them

[Horse]

Time to arrival illusion