Would you have an electric car if you had the money for a new car and were in the market for one?

[Mussels]

I don't know about European tracks but rolling motorways can't happen here because the trains would be too wide to get past each other or through tunnels.
Freight trains at night still disrupt day time commuter trains, I know that well after many years of train commuting. I think there's not much more capacity available and don't forget the railways need quite a lot of maintenance downtime.
So whilst freight trains may be a good idea they aren't much of an option to change anything.

[Mr. Dazzle]

Not in the UK no, our railways still suffer from being a Victorian marvel and as I said the UK isn't very big.

They're quite a big thing in Europe now with plans to expand them in many countries, so they clearly work.

[Wreckless Rat]

It’s the uk leccy infrastructure more than anything and even being a lead engineer with an EV motor company doesn’t give you insight into that.

Tosh. Absolute nonsense.

I work, largely, in various aspects of road safety.

But we get involved in all sorts of transport stuff and you can't help but hear about what's going on (it's encouraged). Stuff that is in the news as 'the future' is often what we were working on a couple of years ago.

Also, if you have any curiosity, you learn about what other research is going on in associated fields.

I should clarify that when I say "I know what's coming" I mean I literally know the hard figures about (some of) the road cars that are hitting the market in the next few years.

We do the whole package...motor, controller, software, integration with gearboxes, integration with cooling and so on. Either by ourselves or with external partners like battery firms. We simply couldn't design a motor unless we knew what all the other bits of the drivetrain were doing. That includes lots of "usage profile" info from the OEMs.

I don't do it all myself of course, but my position means I have to have a nose in nearly all of it. Plus my main job is looking into what we're gonna do next and I'm a nozy/curious bugger anyway.

I agree you will have great insight into what is happening in the car industry itself, but I don't see that will give you insight into the UK infrastructure investment needed to make charge cars 100% viable. Correct me if I am wrong. I have been wrong before, it was a long time ago though

If you know, please feel free to enlighten me, how the UK infrastructure is being updated to cope and how people who live down roads where street parking is the only option will charge their cars, and what the timescales for this solution are, who is paying for it, how it will be delivered, how the grid is being upgraded to cope etc etc etc.

Thanks

[Mr. Dazzle]

There's a massive PDF report a couple of pages back. Google "UK energy future" otherwise. It'd explain plans and assumptions much more clearly than I could.

[Wreckless Rat]

https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/our-work/f ... nergy.html


from here?

[Mr. Dazzle]

Think it might have been a different thread actually...

I was thinking of this one.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/stories ... t-30-years.

I saw that one you linked too, but I don't know who those authors are. I can't work out if they're "official" or not. The national grid on the other hand...

[Wreckless Rat]

Think it might have been a different thread actually...

I was thinking of this one.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/stories ... t-30-years.

I saw that one you linked too, but I don't know who those authors are. I can't work out if they're "official" or not. The national grid on the other hand...

Hmm.. Thanks.

It strikes me as massively optimistic. Figures like 45% of households using their EV batteries to balance the grid. There is one massive flaw in this assumption. People want their cars ready to use at very short notice, it is one of the main reasons cars are so popular. Need to go into town, jump into the car and go. No fucking about waiting, planning etc. Its the same reason why the autonomous pool car idea will only ever be a thing in cities, where people are happy to rely on taxis.

The idea seems to be, you'll charge your car, and then while it sits there, it will feed this back into the grid, so now when you want to hop into your car, its half flat... great, and the grid is cycling your battery... lol. Thanks. So rather than investing what is needed, they want people to fix the issues but buying and replacing their battery packs more often.

Add to this, they want to force all household to heat with electric, anyone who currently heats their house with electric will tell you just how expensive that it. It will improve with more use of heat pumps, but leccy is still an expensive way to heat your house.

Little gems like this should scare the shit out of people.

In Leading the Way, there is a 75%reduction in total energy demand for road transport due to a combination of electrification, automation and changing consumer behaviour.

[Mr. Dazzle]

My old place was heated with electricity (no gas connection) and our monthly bills were still less than the average for a property of that size. It was a new build with 6ft of insulation everywhere, which is the key. They do mention how much domestic energy consumption is going to / will have to change TBF.

Consumer behaviour is absolutely a key piece of the puzzle and it WILL change one way or another, the only variable is how happy people will be about it. If you can't buy a petrol car then you'll have little choice....

[Wreckless Rat]

My old place was heated with electricity (no gas connection) and our monthly bills were still less than the average for a property of that size. It was a new build with 6ft of insulation everywhere, which is the key. They do mention how much domestic energy consumption is going to / will have to change TBF.

Consumer behaviour is absolutely a key piece of the puzzle and it WILL change one way or another, the only variable is how happy people will be about it. If you can't buy a petrol car then you'll have little choice....

Oh I have no doubt, we will be forced down this route, but it seems to be suggesting, a large chunk is planned to be by forcing people into public transport. Herd the minions into shit public transport, while those who made these choices of course, still have private transport.

I'm pro change of moving away from fossil fuels, not least because we will use it all up in the end anyway, so change has to happen. What I am less than convinced on, is the method, and while we paint ourselves into an electrified land of zero choice, the big polluters continue, and the places where population (the real issue) is continuing to explode will continue to do so, and this will nullify anything we do, in the UK and across much of the western world.

[Mr. Dazzle]

To be fair all of the big polluters also have similar goals for carbon reduction and are generally spending similar amounts of time, money and effort on it. China spends more money on clean energy development than any other country. You could say they also have the furthest to go, which would be a fair point.

I expect this to be met with "Don't believe what China says!" by the way, so go for it

[Wreckless Rat]

To be fair all of the big polluters also have similar goals for carbon reduction and are generally spending similar amounts of time, money and effort on it. China spends more money on clean energy development than any other country. You could say they also have the furthest to go, which would be a fair point.

I expect this to be met with "Don't believe what China says!" by the way, so go for it

The bigger issue is not really just how much carbon one man/woman produces, its the number of people producing it. The latter is the biggest issue, and this drives deforestation, encroachment into wild areas, hoovering fish from the sea at at unsustainable amount, water use to grow crops, and pollution from all the rare earths needed for EV or even hydrogen fuel cell cars etc. Man's biggest issue, is still too unpalatable to even discuss. Over population.

[Mr. Dazzle]

It's all a circular situation anyway. Population is naturally decreasing in the western world, mostly because (as far as it's possible to tell) standards of living and education are higher. So if you make it so everyone has clean water, electric light and so on the population problem takes care of itself.

It's obviously very very hard to predict, but several studies anticipate global population to peak in the second half of this century. Who knows though.

[Kneerly Down]

Reports that China has banned Teslas from being parked at military bases and state owned enterprises...that covers quite a bit in China!

Plenty more cars coming with built-in camera systems so presumably they'll also be 'on the list'?

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/ ... y-concerns

China’s Defense Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a fax sent after after business hours.

I can't imagine a fax beyond responded to these days even in business hours!

[Mr. Dazzle]

I can't imagine a fax beyond responded to these days even in business hours!

Their pager system was obviously down.

[Mussels]

Reports that China has banned Teslas from being parked at military bases and state owned enterprises...that covers quite a bit in China!

Plenty more cars coming with built-in camera systems so presumably they'll also be 'on the list'?

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/ ... y-concerns

China’s Defense Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a fax sent after after business hours.

I can't imagine a fax beyond responded to these days even in business hours!

Can't say I blame them, probably just as much risk as Huawei stuff being tampered with.

[Cousin Jack]

Consumer behaviour is absolutely a key piece of the puzzle and it WILL change one way or another, the only variable is how happy people will be about it. If you can't buy a petrol car then you'll have little choice....

..........except to vote for a Government that WILL let you buy an IC car.

My guess is that, a few years before 2030, a prudent Govt will kick that date into the long grass. If they don't a Farage-like figure will arise, leading an electoral revolt that will scare the shit out of them.

[Horse]

Consumer behaviour is absolutely a key piece of the puzzle and it WILL change one way or another, the only variable is how happy people will be about it. If you can't buy a petrol car then you'll have little choice....

..........except to vote for a Government that WILL let you buy an IC car.

My guess is ...

... possibly wrong.

Recent research found that people can easily be bribed, err incentivised to change their behaviour when charging.

[Cousin Jack]

If you can't buy a petrol car then you'll have little choice....

..........except to vote for a Government that WILL let you buy an IC car.
My guess is ...

... possibly wrong.

Recent research found that people can easily be bribed, err incentivised to change their behaviour when charging.

............but probably right.

2021 - Covid still a major issue, UK economy in disarray, and UK National Debt at stratospheric levels.
2030 - no more IC cars on current plan.

So 9 years for bribery/incentives to work, just how big a bribe can the UK afford? FFS, even without any monetary constraints, putting the necessary infrastructure in place in 9 years would be a big ask for anyone. For the UK, with a long history of discussing and consulting for eons before actually doing anything................ How long has it taken to build HS2, how long for the 3rd runway at Heathrow?

[Asian Boss]

There will still be ICE engined cars past 2030. I imagine there will be loads up to 2050 and beyond.

It's just they won't be new. And the taxes will be enormous. Oh the polluters will pay. The polluters will pay.


We've squandered enough on silly shit most of which stems from ghastly racism and fear zone terror. It's no bad thing to spend some money on reducing carbon, especially with the UK's considerable historic carbon output.

The inevitable elderly taxes are already well down the pipeline. Just look at the roadmaps to zero carbon.

[Horse]

..........except to vote for a Government that WILL let you buy an IC car.
My guess is ...

... possibly wrong.

Recent research found that people can easily be bribed, err incentivised to change their behaviour when charging.

............but probably right.

I meant about your citizens' rebellion.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if there was a pragmatic decision to delay, but a public vote on it? Do you mean riots to force a referendum, or ... ? Fixed term parliament means just two more elections before 2030. And I can really see one party making any success of a single issue.