Docca wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:09 pm
I don’t mean to suggest this is limited to Europe. It should be shared; no life is worth more than another.
I vehemently disagree with the obtuse suggestion that if you feel we should share to those in need, you surrender your turn. However, again, the 9 categories in the JCVI are a good foundation. If you are otherwise of good health and outside of those categories, you should be better placed to wait.
Here's the problem with your vehement disagreement. I might agree.
I agree "we" should share to those in need and I agree that should not include me just because I am suggesting the idea. I which case I volunteer
you to give up
your vaccine so that "we" can "share" something during this zero sum period of the game.
On a more serious note, I disagree with the idea of selecting ALL those who should receive the jab first. The problem with a pandemic is not the mortality for each unfortunate victim. The problem is the rate of infection with such a highly transmissible virus and the effect that has on the health system and the function of a complex society.
Certainly the most vulnerable elderly should get the vaccine first. I wouldn't draw a hard line at 70+ but rather a 100% probability being first in the queue, with the probability of getting called up first tailing off on a bell curve distribution with 70 being the peak.
Then theres's a very good case for healthcare workers being next in line for obvious reasons. Again I wouldn't want to make that exclusive but heavily weight the probability of doctors, nurses etc. getting called up next.
Everyone else gets called up entirely at random. Instead of clumps of "the chosen ones" being immunised, we distribute an increasing herd immunity scattered among the general population which I suggest would be the best strategy for reducing the R number. The chain of infection rises exponentially (at R) and
if the chain is broken when the virus hits an immunised person, the more randomly scattered they are among society, the better.
Sadly we no longer have an evil genius like Cummings who would happily suggest such an inhumane plan.