Covid restrictions - are you adhering or not?

[Mr. Dazzle]

Are you deliberately channelling Hemingway now?

He hasn't mentioned fishing in the caribbean for ages, what ya on about.

[slowsider]

Id like that twice if i could

[Wreckless Rat]

As for cost, the UKs furlough scheme was one of the most generous...

No one seems to want to bring that up

[Wreckless Rat]

And on that note,....

*Climbs out of rabbit hole

Fill ya boots, I really can’t be arsed.

I like Docca, don’t agree with all his politics, but I do value his view on some things NHS-ie.

The fact is, the government could have done better, the NHS could have done better and the population could have done better (see London last night as a prime example).

People want someone to blame. You’ll never persuade someone with a view to change it, no more than you’ll change a Corbynista into a Boris fan and vice versa.

[Horse]

You can’t as there is no standard for reporting.

Correct, this was covered ad nauseum in 'the other place'.

And why overall excess mortality might be a better indicator (although recent data for some countries may less accurate.

Here's one example, there are plenty to be found:




That's from July, later data would allow for variations in timelines for different countries.

Plenty of caveats and explanations available too, here's one:

Why is it important to examine excess mortality data?

Excess mortality is a count of deaths from all causes relative to what would normally have been expected. In a pandemic, deaths rise sharply, but causes are often inaccurately recorded, particularly when reliable tests are not widely available. The death count attributed to Covid-19 may thus be significantly undercounted. Excess mortality data overcome two problems in reporting Covid-19-related deaths. Miscounting from misdiagnosis or under-reporting of Covid-19-related deaths is avoided. Excess mortality data include ‘collateral damage’ from other health conditions, left untreated if the health system is overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases, or by deliberate actions that prioritise patients with Covid-19 over those with other symptoms.

In a pandemic, measures taken by governments and by individuals also influence death rates. For example, deaths from traffic accidents may decline but suicide rates may rise. Excess mortality captures the net outcome of all these factors. Figure 1 illustrates how the degree of Covid-19 recording relative to excess deaths has varied across some European countries. In Belgium, with a broad definition of what constitutes a Covid-19 death, the excess over 100 percent might suggest that most excess deaths are due to Covid-19 and other deaths, such as those due to road accidents, may have declined.

Excess mortality data can be used to draw lessons from cross- and within-country differences and help analyse the social and economic consequences of the pandemic and relaxing lockdown restrictions.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-excess-mortality

[Dodgy69]

I read it as 98% are social distancing and being careful, only 2% bad.

[Wreckless Rat]

I read it as 98% are social distancing and being careful, only 2% bad.

You have a group of 20 people in a bubble all obeying the rules, one person nips out to a mates house/party/fireworks display. Only a tiny proportion of the group has not followed the rules - how many in that bubble now catch it..

[Docca]

Your man suggested that I was corrupt and supported cronyism, now that probably flies where you're from, but I value my integrity and I find his accusation absent of any charm whatsoever.

I didn’t suggest you were corrupt, I suggested that you’d willingly turn a blind eye on what this government has done with regards to its corruption to suite your argument. That’s how it came across, my apologies if I wasn’t clear.

I’ve no idea if you’re bent or not, and tbpfh I don’t care. I think you are genuinely aggressive, struggle to hold any semblance of debate and hero posture more times than Batfink in a Sunday omnibous.

You’ll never tire of trying your own patience by convincing yourself you are some kind of pragmatist and that’s why you wantonly try to be antagonistic on an Internet forum. Truth is, you’re a narcissist and won’t ever be able to leave alone, and that’s your curse. And ours. You thrive on sealioning folk.

For the avoidance of doubt: government set policy. People are stupid.

P.s I’ve always been bitter.

[slowsider]

I read it as 98% are social distancing and being careful, only 2% bad.

You have a group of 20 people in a bubble all obeying the rules, one person nips out to a mates house/party/fireworks display. Only a tiny proportion of the group has not followed the rules - how many in that bubble now catch it..

'I'm being sensible and reducing contact with people' is the most popular option. Thats not your scenario. If govt guidelines were as clear as that, it would be easier to follow.

[Docca]

P.p.s: assumptions regarding adherence to guidance can be misleading.

Many are /have ignored government advice because it’s been utter garbage. I was allowed to go out drinking in the pub every week during the summer. I didn’t, because I was concerned about the spread of Covid 19. In the binary format of this poll, that would mean I didn’t adhere and therefore people can jump to conclusions that I randomly set about licking strangers and coughing on peoples cornflakes.

[Wreckless Rat]

I read it as 98% are social distancing and being careful, only 2% bad.

You have a group of 20 people in a bubble all obeying the rules, one person nips out to a mates house/party/fireworks display. Only a tiny proportion of the group has not followed the rules - how many in that bubble now catch it..

'I'm being sensible and reducing contact with people' is the most popular option. Thats not your scenario. If govt guidelines were as clear as that, it would be easier to follow.

You’ll get no argument from me the guidelines are gash, but common sense seems to be lacking in a large proportion of the population.

[Couchy]

We’d done a pretty good job of adhering and keeping Covid away. The wife’s grandad at 93 was one reason as he was in our bubble. But a few days before Xmas he was found in his flat having had a fall, taken to hospital as he’d broken his hip and had a new one fitted. Cos of his age it was gonna be a long recovery, after 7 days the wife took him some belongings in and wearing full ppe spent 30 mins in the hospital. Next day we get a call he has tested positive for Covid, previous tests were negative. I suggest wife gets checked and yup she is positive, I started coughing same day this being this Monday and yup I’m positive. Also daughter lost sense of taste so we can assume she is too. The girls have only had a cough but I’ve had it much worse, last night being proper bad, aches pains coughs shivers it’s all no fun at all. Eventually out of bed today to find out half our later when the hospital calls that wife’s grandad has passed away. He’s had a good innings tbh but Covid got him because he fell over and had to go to hospital.
Wife’s friend and family also all got it as she was called into hospital where she works to get the vaccine !. Not blaming hospital in any way but with all their cleaning and processes it shows how easy it’s now spreading.

And yet there’s still people being fuckwits

[Yorick]

We’d done a pretty good job of adhering and keeping Covid away. The wife’s grandad at 93 was one reason as he was in our bubble. But a few days before Xmas he was found in his flat having had a fall, taken to hospital as he’d broken his hip and had a new one fitted. Cos of his age it was gonna be a long recovery, after 7 days the wife took him some belongings in and wearing full ppe spent 30 mins in the hospital. Next day we get a call he has tested positive for Covid, previous tests were negative. I suggest wife gets checked and yup she is positive, I started coughing same day this being this Monday and yup I’m positive. Also daughter lost sense of taste so we can assume she is too. The girls have only had a cough but I’ve had it much worse, last night being proper bad, aches pains coughs shivers it’s all no fun at all. Eventually out of bed today to find out half our later when the hospital calls that wife’s grandad has passed away. He’s had a good innings tbh but Covid got him because he fell over and had to go to hospital.
Wife’s friend and family also all got it as she was called into hospital where she works to get the vaccine !. Not blaming hospital in any way but with all their cleaning and processes it shows how easy it’s now spreading.

And yet there’s still people being fuckwits

That's tough mate. Hope you and Mrs CC are OK

[demographic]

I've "Thanked" Couch but realistically its more of just saying I hope it all works out well.
That seems a bit lame now I've written it down. Oh well.

[Skub]

All the best to ya CC. I'm in a similar spot with my Da.

[Yorick]

Normally I sit outside
a bar. But watching footy so inside tonight.

Every single time somebody goes to bar or toilet they put a mask on.

No exceptions so far in last hour.

[wheelnut]

I’m managing to not go far, wife and daughter both work in healthcare, wife wears full PPE at work but daughter is unable to wear any and she works with quite a young crowd. If it makes its way into this house that will probably be the way.

CC - sending good vibes

[irie]

I think it's time I stepped away from this thread.

Two thirds of people that did the poll on this thread aren't following the governments instructions, because presumably they know better.
I think that reflects the general attitude of the public in the UK, then when they get into UK hospitals they're dying more than in other countries.

But it's Boris's fault.
You just can't fix stupid can you.

In the poll I put ...

"Kind of, I'm being sensible and reducing contact with people"

... because I have been performing maintenance work on our beach hut. In doing so I have had no contact whatsoever with other people, but strictly speaking this is not an essential reason to leave the house and is therefore not compliant with the rules.

[Horse]

Am I interpreting this right?...

France had less excess deaths, but more people (as a percentage of those excess deaths) died of covid.
More excess deaths overall in England, but proportionally less covid deaths than France/Belgium.

If so, then a provocative stab in the dark might be that the lockdown, isolation, panic and poor care, caused the excess deaths that were not from covid. If it wasn't for this then 20% of those people might still be alive (the 80% that died from covid are unknown but I'd venture that a good proportion of those might also still be alive with better management).

On that basis, the poorly managed lockdown(s) (or even well managed lockdowns) appear to have caused excess deaths

I'm not sure that you are, because of the definition of covid deaths. As has been noted, in the UK that could include (inventing, not a real case) someone asymptotic who tested positive but then died of suicide the day after their test. But not everyone who died of Covid-19 would have been tested, so would fall into the other category.

And 'poorly managed lockdown'? Careful, you'll be blaming Boris next

[Taipan]

I've "Thanked" Couch but realistically its more of just saying I hope it all works out well.
That seems a bit lame now I've written it down. Oh well.

It doesn't. I thanked him for the same reasons. But now I'm writing about it, I may as well put it down too. Sorry to hear your news Couchie.