Pfizer vaccine approved

[Horse]

..I did read that Russia had been using a vaccine already that was not approved ? But that seems to have gone quiet ...

See my post yesterday (?), listing all the different vaccines.

Edit: I can't find it and I know roughly what I'm looking for

[Saga Lout]

I did read that Russia had been using a vaccine already that was not approved ? But that seems to have gone quiet ...

I'm just surprised China didn't have one ready to use on its own population before it released the virus on the rest of the world.

[Horse]

Sputnik V – formerly known as Gam-COVID-Vac and developed by the Gamaleya Research Institute in Moscow – was approved by the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation on 11 August. Experts raise considerable concern about the vaccine’s safety and efficacy given it has not yet entered Phase 3 clinical trials. A second vaccine in Russia, EpiVacCorona, has also been granted regulatory approval, also without entering Phase 3 clinical trials.

A few pages back.

[Wreckless Rat]

I'm just surprised China didn't have one ready to use on its own population before it released the virus on the rest of the world.

Perhaps it did but it only used it on people they wanted to keep alive.

Well, if we believe their stats China, the epicentre of the outbreak, and a really densely populated country, has a tiny amount of cases, and miniscule amounts of deaths.....

[Mr. Dazzle]

Bit of a change of direction for sputnik...the first four went into space. Hope the fans don't get too upset with this new look.

[DefTrap]

Because it doesn’t work like that ..there are thousands of different medications in use in parts of the world that are not licensed here or vice versa... Each country makes it’s own rules ..I did read that Russia had been using a vaccine already that was not approved ? But that seems to have gone quiet ...

Well yeah you would have to satisfy national laws (like UK statutory Instruments) and be subject to audit by your national regulator (like the UK MHRA) and then there are associated regulators like the EU EMA and the US FDA that you would do well to comply with as well if you want to flog a lot of whatever snake-oil it is you're marketing. Typically the regulations are reasonably closely aligned because otherwise it's a big pain in the arse.

I don't know enough about what goes on specifically in Russia to comment. I did speak to a nice FDA man who had a very low opinion of what went on in medical trials in China - but then he probably would(!). As it happens I had a fairly low opinion of the competence of the FDA man too.

[Greenman]

I watched a decent film recently called ‘71 about a young squaddie in Belfast. There was a great line in it:

“Posh cunts telling thick cunts to kill poor cunts. That's the army for you. It's all a lie.”

Great film and a provocative line.
It paints quite a dim view of the army in 1971.

"Posh cunts telling thick cunts to do something" is how the world works, not just the army.

Not quite right, this is the correct one...

"Posh thick cunts telling poor thick cunts to do something", is how the world works!

Another fan of 71 here too btw - i have it on DVD

[Nidge]

Go and do something Greenie

It is a great film- the lead character portrays a load of emotions without delivering many lines

[Noggin]

There's a huge drive for testing in the ski resorts here. My area is testing on Friday afternoon, so I'd best go along

Not sure if it's to decide where they start with the vaccine or just to see how bad the virus 'actually' is in the area. But I wouldn't be surprised if it's the latter - we have one of the highest levels (apparently) in France. The main reason the resorts aren't opening the lifts isn't because you might catch the virus in the queues, but that the hospitals are too close to full capacity - no room for ski crash victims

[The Martian]

Bit of a change of direction for sputnik...the first four went into space. Hope the fans don't get too upset with this new look.

I was never a fan, bit overrated IMO

[

[Trinity765]

Viruses mutate (they always have) so how effective is the vaccine now?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

[Gedge]

Viruses mutate (they always have) so how effective is the vaccine now?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

According to the news and the work at Porton Down the new strain is no more dangerous than the original and there is no reason to believe it will be resistant to the vaccine ..no doubt the Tinfoil hatters will choose to disbelieve this ...

[Horse]

I know someone who had it in march and has just tested positive again, so presumably a different strain

Or his resistance reduced over time?

[millemille]

Viruses mutate (they always have) so how effective is the vaccine now?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

My understanding is that so long as the protein coating the virus remains unchanged the vaccine's will continue to work.

[irie]

I know someone who had it in march and has just tested positive again, so presumably a different strain
On the plus side he has no symptoms second time around so hopefully his immune system is now capable of fighting the second variant

The PCR test is sensitive enough to detect dead virus.

Plenty of online info about this. For example:

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3699

This is because PCR is not a test of infectiousness. Rather, the test detects trace amounts of viral genome sequence, which may be either live transmissible virus or irrelevant RNA fragments from previous infection

[Yorick]

Viruses mutate (they always have) so how effective is the vaccine now?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

Most mutations are unsuccessful.

Woo hoo. I added something useful .

Double back somersault to celebrate.

[millemille]

You need 2 injections to immunise a person, spaced 3 weeks apart, so after the initial 3 weeks of injecting for no net result the productivity of the system (injections administered vs. immunisation achieved) is 0.5.

200,000 injections a day gives you 100,000 immunised people per day. 1 million is 10 days and we need, it appears, somewhere between 60 and 75% of the population immunised to achieve herd immunity. Worst case this means 50 million people need to be immune, but the vaccines appear to have 90% - or thereabouts - efficacy so you need to immunise 55 million or thereabouts to be sure. 550 days of non-stop vaccination at 200,000 injections per day on average to achieve this.

While the test centres do have a high throughput of tests bare in mind they are doing very little other than acting as hand out/collection points for the tests - which are largely self administered - and paperwork and that the test centres do not process the samples. The processing of the samples is done in industrial laboratories and is highly automated and done in large batches, not something you can do when administering injections.

We can't be in a situation where immunisation comes at the expense of all else, in terms of health service provision. We're already in the position where COVID has impacted upon the NHS's ability to do its day job and lives have/will be lost - to what extent is unclear - as a result. So can the existing infrastructure be asked to accommodate such a massive undertaking or does new need to be created?

The problem I foresee, although I may well be wrong, is that vaccination is going to rely on several different "brands" of vaccine and everyone will have to be given the correct pair of injections and, from the limited exposure I've had to NHS IT and record integrity/stability through my wife's past jobs as a hospice nurse, I don't think the existing NHS medical record system is up to administering 152 million new records/entries in a way that absolutely 100% guarantees everyone gets the correct injection at the correct time. So I can't see every GP surgery being capable of administering vaccinations because the record keeping/access won't allow it. The vaccination process will rely on a different IT system I would presume.

But of course I could be talking out of my hoop and the government has got it all planned and under control and it'll be a cinch....

I think you under estimate the number of vaccines that will be administered daily ...my numbers are theoretically conservative and come in at 1.5 million a day ... with the likely take up of around 70% we would need to do 45 million people ...that’s around 60 days .. as Wheelnut says the issue will be quantity of vaccine rather than ability to issue it ... as the key target seems to be key workers, the vulnerable and the over 50s I think it perfectly possible to get them done by Easter if the doses are manufactured at the same pace. ?

Record keeping could be as simple as marking the vaccine card with the correct vaccine type and scribbling the date if the next appointment ...it doesn’t need to be rocket science although I expect some one will spring for an all singing database that will cost millions and be ready the day after the virus has been eliminated ..

I hope you're right, but I'd be willing to have a bet (£10 to a charity of choice?) that they don't ever get above 200,000 injections administered per day...

Given they've only managed to administer 140,000 injections in 8 days, less than 20,000 per day, so far it's going to be one hell of a ramp up to achieve 200,000 per day let alone 1,500,000 per day.....

[weeksy]

I think you under estimate the number of vaccines that will be administered daily ...my numbers are theoretically conservative and come in at 1.5 million a day ... with the likely take up of around 70% we would need to do 45 million people ...that’s around 60 days .. as Wheelnut says the issue will be quantity of vaccine rather than ability to issue it ... as the key target seems to be key workers, the vulnerable and the over 50s I think it perfectly possible to get them done by Easter if the doses are manufactured at the same pace. ?

Record keeping could be as simple as marking the vaccine card with the correct vaccine type and scribbling the date if the next appointment ...it doesn’t need to be rocket science although I expect some one will spring for an all singing database that will cost millions and be ready the day after the virus has been eliminated ..

I hope you're right, but I'd be willing to have a bet (£10 to a charity of choice?) that they don't ever get above 200,000 injections administered per day...

Given they've only managed to administer 140,000 injections in 8 days, less than 20,000 per day, so far it's going to be one hell of a ramp up to achieve 200,000 per day let alone 1,500,000 per day.....

Well yes, but things will take a while to get running to full capacity, you can't just go from 0-200,000 in a week. Getting the infrastructure in place will take a bit of time.

[Horse]

Given they've only managed to administer 140,000 injections in 8 days, less than 20,000 per day, so far it's going to be one hell of a ramp up to achieve 200,000 per day let alone 1,500,000 per day.....

I think someone posted that there were limits on how many could be done at the start.

Rather than an average over the eight days, day-by-day figures might give a better indication of the implementation.

FWIW, my mother was phoned several days ago to attend at a centre set up in a a hotel (by a ring road, with alarge car park), so scaling up is happening.

[slowsider]

Well yes, but things will take a while to get running to full capacity, you can't just go from 0-200,000 in a week. Getting the infrastructure in place will take a bit of time.

If they'd started on the infrastructure when they started the vaccine research they would have had 10 months to get it in place.