Pfizer vaccine approved

[irie]

I think the biggest issue won’t be so much in administering the vaccine, it will be getting hold of it to administer. It’s a global market and all countries will be clamouring for it. I would imagine it will be produced under license in different countries, but the manufacturing facilities still need to be built and staffed so production can be ramped up to cope with demand.

Pssst, Astrazeneca/Oxford vaccine.

[Gedge]

I'd say that's a very optimistic figure. But don't forget, let's say 25% of them are under 20, therefore you do them last.

I’m Not following the maths ?

100,000 per day is 2.1 million in 3 weeks which would equate to 10 million by end of March .. There are around 7600 ( google fact) doctors surgeries , so ignoring purpose built vaccination sites and hospitals let alone pharmacies so if each surgery did 15 vaccinations a day that would easily be 100,000 a day ...in reality vaccination centres and hospitals re likely to do many tens if thousands more a day ( test centre already do hundreds of thousands of covid tests which I reckon would take longer than a vaccination )

You need 2 injections to immunise a person, spaced 3 weeks apart, so after the initial 3 weeks of injecting for no net result the productivity of the system (injections administered vs. immunisation achieved) is 0.5.

200,000 injections a day gives you 100,000 immunised people per day. 1 million is 10 days and we need, it appears, somewhere between 60 and 75% of the population immunised to achieve herd immunity. Worst case this means 50 million people need to be immune, but the vaccines appear to have 90% - or thereabouts - efficacy so you need to immunise 55 million or thereabouts to be sure. 550 days of non-stop vaccination at 200,000 injections per day on average to achieve this.

While the test centres do have a high throughput of tests bare in mind they are doing very little other than acting as hand out/collection points for the tests - which are largely self administered - and paperwork and that the test centres do not process the samples. The processing of the samples is done in industrial laboratories and is highly automated and done in large batches, not something you can do when administering injections.

We can't be in a situation where immunisation comes at the expense of all else, in terms of health service provision. We're already in the position where COVID has impacted upon the NHS's ability to do its day job and lives have/will be lost - to what extent is unclear - as a result. So can the existing infrastructure be asked to accommodate such a massive undertaking or does new need to be created?

The problem I foresee, although I may well be wrong, is that vaccination is going to rely on several different "brands" of vaccine and everyone will have to be given the correct pair of injections and, from the limited exposure I've had to NHS IT and record integrity/stability through my wife's past jobs as a hospice nurse, I don't think the existing NHS medical record system is up to administering 152 million new records/entries in a way that absolutely 100% guarantees everyone gets the correct injection at the correct time. So I can't see every GP surgery being capable of administering vaccinations because the record keeping/access won't allow it. The vaccination process will rely on a different IT system I would presume.

But of course I could be talking out of my hoop and the government has got it all planned and under control and it'll be a cinch....

I think you under estimate the number of vaccines that will be administered daily ...my numbers are theoretically conservative and come in at 1.5 million a day ... with the likely take up of around 70% we would need to do 45 million people ...that’s around 60 days .. as Wheelnut says the issue will be quantity of vaccine rather than ability to issue it ... as the key target seems to be key workers, the vulnerable and the over 50s I think it perfectly possible to get them done by Easter if the doses are manufactured at the same pace. ?

Record keeping could be as simple as marking the vaccine card with the correct vaccine type and scribbling the date if the next appointment ...it doesn’t need to be rocket science although I expect some one will spring for an all singing database that will cost millions and be ready the day after the virus has been eliminated ..

[wheelnut]

Pssst, Astrazeneca/Oxford vaccine.

Unless Boris has got 130 million doses sat in his shed, my point still stands ....

[millemille]

I’m Not following the maths ?

100,000 per day is 2.1 million in 3 weeks which would equate to 10 million by end of March .. There are around 7600 ( google fact) doctors surgeries , so ignoring purpose built vaccination sites and hospitals let alone pharmacies so if each surgery did 15 vaccinations a day that would easily be 100,000 a day ...in reality vaccination centres and hospitals re likely to do many tens if thousands more a day ( test centre already do hundreds of thousands of covid tests which I reckon would take longer than a vaccination )

You need 2 injections to immunise a person, spaced 3 weeks apart, so after the initial 3 weeks of injecting for no net result the productivity of the system (injections administered vs. immunisation achieved) is 0.5.

200,000 injections a day gives you 100,000 immunised people per day. 1 million is 10 days and we need, it appears, somewhere between 60 and 75% of the population immunised to achieve herd immunity. Worst case this means 50 million people need to be immune, but the vaccines appear to have 90% - or thereabouts - efficacy so you need to immunise 55 million or thereabouts to be sure. 550 days of non-stop vaccination at 200,000 injections per day on average to achieve this.

While the test centres do have a high throughput of tests bare in mind they are doing very little other than acting as hand out/collection points for the tests - which are largely self administered - and paperwork and that the test centres do not process the samples. The processing of the samples is done in industrial laboratories and is highly automated and done in large batches, not something you can do when administering injections.

We can't be in a situation where immunisation comes at the expense of all else, in terms of health service provision. We're already in the position where COVID has impacted upon the NHS's ability to do its day job and lives have/will be lost - to what extent is unclear - as a result. So can the existing infrastructure be asked to accommodate such a massive undertaking or does new need to be created?

The problem I foresee, although I may well be wrong, is that vaccination is going to rely on several different "brands" of vaccine and everyone will have to be given the correct pair of injections and, from the limited exposure I've had to NHS IT and record integrity/stability through my wife's past jobs as a hospice nurse, I don't think the existing NHS medical record system is up to administering 152 million new records/entries in a way that absolutely 100% guarantees everyone gets the correct injection at the correct time. So I can't see every GP surgery being capable of administering vaccinations because the record keeping/access won't allow it. The vaccination process will rely on a different IT system I would presume.

But of course I could be talking out of my hoop and the government has got it all planned and under control and it'll be a cinch....

I think you under estimate the number of vaccines that will be administered daily ...my numbers are theoretically conservative and come in at 1.5 million a day ... with the likely take up of around 70% we would need to do 45 million people ...that’s around 60 days .. as Wheelnut says the issue will be quantity of vaccine rather than ability to issue it ... as the key target seems to be key workers, the vulnerable and the over 50s I think it perfectly possible to get them done by Easter if the doses are manufactured at the same pace. ?

Record keeping could be as simple as marking the vaccine card with the correct vaccine type and scribbling the date if the next appointment ...it doesn’t need to be rocket science although I expect some one will spring for an all singing database that will cost millions and be ready the day after the virus has been eliminated ..

I hope you're right, but I'd be willing to have a bet (£10 to a charity of choice?) that they don't ever get above 200,000 injections administered per day...

[Saga Lout]

You evidently do not understand how vaccines work.

I know enough to know that they trigger the body's immune system so that it knows how to produce antibodies to attack the virus.

I.e. they protect the individual who is vaccinated.

How do you think they work?

[Horse]

Pssst, Astrazeneca/Oxford vaccine.

Unless Boris has got 130 million doses sat in his shed, my point still stands ....

Haven't they placed multiple orders for different vaccines, totalling 300-350M?

[Horse]

the UK had to scramble after the announcement of trial results to say it had finally inked a deal to buy 5m doses.

The government added that it has already secured access to to 350m vaccine doses by putting in advance orders for several that are in development.


www.cityam.com/which-covid-vaccines-has ... dered/amp/

[Gedge]

You need 2 injections to immunise a person, spaced 3 weeks apart, so after the initial 3 weeks of injecting for no net result the productivity of the system (injections administered vs. immunisation achieved) is 0.5.

200,000 injections a day gives you 100,000 immunised people per day. 1 million is 10 days and we need, it appears, somewhere between 60 and 75% of the population immunised to achieve herd immunity. Worst case this means 50 million people need to be immune, but the vaccines appear to have 90% - or thereabouts - efficacy so you need to immunise 55 million or thereabouts to be sure. 550 days of non-stop vaccination at 200,000 injections per day on average to achieve this.

While the test centres do have a high throughput of tests bare in mind they are doing very little other than acting as hand out/collection points for the tests - which are largely self administered - and paperwork and that the test centres do not process the samples. The processing of the samples is done in industrial laboratories and is highly automated and done in large batches, not something you can do when administering injections.

We can't be in a situation where immunisation comes at the expense of all else, in terms of health service provision. We're already in the position where COVID has impacted upon the NHS's ability to do its day job and lives have/will be lost - to what extent is unclear - as a result. So can the existing infrastructure be asked to accommodate such a massive undertaking or does new need to be created?

The problem I foresee, although I may well be wrong, is that vaccination is going to rely on several different "brands" of vaccine and everyone will have to be given the correct pair of injections and, from the limited exposure I've had to NHS IT and record integrity/stability through my wife's past jobs as a hospice nurse, I don't think the existing NHS medical record system is up to administering 152 million new records/entries in a way that absolutely 100% guarantees everyone gets the correct injection at the correct time. So I can't see every GP surgery being capable of administering vaccinations because the record keeping/access won't allow it. The vaccination process will rely on a different IT system I would presume.

But of course I could be talking out of my hoop and the government has got it all planned and under control and it'll be a cinch....

I think you under estimate the number of vaccines that will be administered daily ...my numbers are theoretically conservative and come in at 1.5 million a day ... with the likely take up of around 70% we would need to do 45 million people ...that’s around 60 days .. as Wheelnut says the issue will be quantity of vaccine rather than ability to issue it ... as the key target seems to be key workers, the vulnerable and the over 50s I think it perfectly possible to get them done by Easter if the doses are manufactured at the same pace. ?

Record keeping could be as simple as marking the vaccine card with the correct vaccine type and scribbling the date if the next appointment ...it doesn’t need to be rocket science although I expect some one will spring for an all singing database that will cost millions and be ready the day after the virus has been eliminated ..

I hope you're right, but I'd be willing to have a bet (£10 to a charity of choice?) that they don't ever get above 200,000 injections administered per day...

I don’t gamble but for comparison in 2019 Flu season the UK administered 14 million vaccinations ...assuming a 16 week flu season that would be roughly 80 days and that’s around 175000 a day ...pretty sure the covid scaling up will exceed that figure once the ball gets rolling ..

[wheelnut]

Pssst, Astrazeneca/Oxford vaccine.

Unless Boris has got 130 million doses sat in his shed, my point still stands ....

Haven't they placed multiple orders for different vaccines, totalling 300-350M?

Having them on order isn’t the same as having them.
I once had to wait over 9 months to take delivery of a single vw scirocco......

[irie]

Did you read what you wrote? "... it also increases her risk of getting covid unless she has the vaccine." I.e. she has the vaccine so that she doesn't become infected.

You evidently do not understand how vaccines work.

I know enough to know that they trigger the body's immune system so that it knows how to produce antibodies to attack the virus.

I.e. they protect the individual who is vaccinated.

How do you think they work?

You have to become infected in order to trigger the body's immune response to produce antibodies.

[wheelnut]

I know enough to know that they trigger the body's immune system so that it knows how to produce antibodies to attack the virus.

I.e. they protect the individual who is vaccinated.

How do you think they work?

A vaccine protects populations, not people. If all the people that get on a bus pay £1 then the bus will have enough to pay for the fuel to get where it’s going. If 90 percent of the people pay £1 it will still get there. If 70 percent pay then it should get there but it’s getting touch and go. If 50 percent pay then there’s a good chance no one on the bus will get to where they want to go.

A vaccine doesn’t necessarily stop you getting the disease you’re vaccinated against. I got the rubella jab when I was a nipper. I still caught German measles. But, at a population level you are a lot less likely to catch the disease you’re vaccinated against, and the chances of it ripping through a population, like measles would, is a lot less. The outbreaks of measles that are happening now aren’t just infecting the non vaccinated kids, they are infecting both. If everybody was vaccinated against measles then the outbreaks would be less serious and more limited.

[Saga Lout]

I know enough to know that they trigger the body's immune system so that it knows how to produce antibodies to attack the virus.

I.e. they protect the individual who is vaccinated.

How do you think they work?

A vaccine protects populations, not people. If all the people that get on a bus pay £1 then the bus will have enough to pay for the fuel to get where it’s going. If 90 percent of the people pay £1 it will still get there. If 70 percent pay then it should get there but it’s getting touch and go. If 50 percent pay then there’s a good chance no one on the bus will get to where they want to go.

A vaccine doesn’t necessarily stop you getting the disease you’re vaccinated against. I got the rubella jab when I was a nipper. I still caught German measles. But, at a population level you are a lot less likely to catch the disease you’re vaccinated against, and the chances of it ripping through a population, like measles would, is a lot less. The outbreaks of measles that are happening now aren’t just infecting the non vaccinated kids, they are infecting both. If everybody was vaccinated against measles then the outbreaks would be less serious and more limited.

If you intend to travel to a place where e.g. yellow fever is rife you get vaccinated against yellow fever. You don't do that to protect the natives, you do that to protect yourself. The population effect of vaccination is secondary. My GP suggested I have the flu vaccine because it would be dangerous for me to get flu, not to protect my next door neighbour.

And your bus analogy is ridiculous. I've often been on a bus where I was the only passenger, it still got where it was going.

[Horse]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55227325

"A 90-year-old woman from Northern Ireland has become the first person in the world to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine outside trial conditions - marking the start of the UK's mass vaccination programme."

[Dodgy69]

Just watched the first jab on 90 odd year old lady on gmtv. Now we wait for the stories, when some of these old folk die.

[Horse]

Just watched the first jab on 90 odd year old lady on gmtv. Now we wait for the stories, when some of these old folk die.

[X] Spoiler

If you can wait long enough, everyone dies

[Wreckless Rat]

They are doing the old coffers first because when they grow an extra head or turn to zombies they will be easier to defeat....

[Horse]

They are doing the old coffers first because when they grow an extra head or turn to zombies they will be easier to defeat....

NoNoNoNo the plan was to find a way of identifying antivaxxers!

[moth]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55227325

"A 90-year-old woman from Northern Ireland has become the first person in the world to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine outside trial conditions - marking the start of the UK's mass vaccination programme."

How long has Coventry been in Norn Ireland?

Skub? Anyone?

[Horse]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55227325

"A 90-year-old woman from Northern Ireland has become the first person in the world to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine outside trial conditions - marking the start of the UK's mass vaccination programme."

How long has Coventry been in Norn Ireland?

Skub? Anyone?

Apparently lived in Coventry for 60 years. Must be like Cornwall, no matter how long you've lived there, you will always be a 'comeover'.

[Horse]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55227325

"A 90-year-old woman from Northern Ireland has become the first person in the world to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine outside trial conditions - marking the start of the UK's mass vaccination programme."

And patient No. 2?

A certain Mr Wm Shakespeare, from Warwickshire