In todays news...

[gremlin]

UK economy was hit disproportionately by the double-whammy of Covid and Brexit. Whereas I have no axe to grind, there's little doubt that business sentiment to the budget is pretty low.

An objective view from my lot's market watch of this morning:



The UK economy contracted in October for the second consecutive month. Gross domestic product slipped 0.1% following a 0.1% contraction in September according to data released this morning by the Office for National Statistics. Economists had expected a 0.1% gain. The service sector flatlined for a second month, while manufacturing and construction output declined. The economy has slowed sharply since Labour took office, expanding just 0.1% in the third quarter after outpacing all of its G7 peers in the first half of 2024 with a 1.2% expansion. The data today will raise questions for fourth quarter growth as a whole. Forecasts are for growth of between 0.3% to 0.4%.

This morning we have also seen the release of the Gfk’s consumer confidence index, this remained subdued in December amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The sentiment indicator rose one point to minus 17. In the survey, consumer were slightly more optimistic about their personal finances but showed concern about the general economic outlook and a reluctance to make large purchases.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank lowered interest rates for a third consecutive meeting and signalled more reductions next year as inflation nears 2% and the economy struggles. The deposit rate was cut by 25bps to 3% as expected. There was a shift in stance in the ECB’s statement where it removed the wording stating that policy would remain “sufficiently restrictive” for as long as necessary instead stating “it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance”. The market is currently pricing in around a further 125 basis points of easing next year which is broadly in line with pricing prior to the announcement. The current predicted interest rate path is based on Europe’s current sluggish economy and political upheaval in Germany and France, plus a potential impact to global trade if President Trump implements the trade tariffs put forward in his presidential manifesto. The fear is that sub-par growth could drag inflation, currently 2.3%, below target. New quarterly projections from the ECB, published yesterday, reflect a fragile backdrop, revising down the outlook for economic expansion and inflation next year.

In the US, economic data was also disappointing. Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, while producer price readings were mixed. US wholesale inflation accelerated in November due to a surge in egg prices. The reaction to the data was muted with swap market pricing continuing to price in a 95% chance that the central bank will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting.

In currencies, sterling has come under pressure following the GDP release this morning. GBP/USD is currently trading in the lower half of 1.26-1.27. GBP/EUR has moved to just above the midpoint of 1.20-1.21.

Have a great weekend,



I actually think the UK is in a better position...wait, let me clarify that: a less shit position, than our European neighbours (France? Germany?). Anybody hanging on for the land of low interest rate milk and honey is going to have to wait a while longer.

[JamJar]

Charging guests who come around for xmas dinner

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/bus ... 99764.html

The world's gone mad

To some people having to spend over £100 to feed your guests can be tough or feel unfair. When I was a kid my parents and grandparents shared the cost, that is just polite surely.

[Horse]

Charging guests who come around for xmas dinner

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/bus ... 99764.html

The world's gone mad

To some people having to spend over £100 to feed your guests can be tough or feel unfair. When I was a kid my parents and grandparents shared the cost, that is just polite surely.

We will have 8 here.

One is paying for the turkey. Another is sorting a range of puds. Youngsters will provide their own booze.

No shame in sharing costs.

[JamJar]

Charging guests who come around for xmas dinner

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/bus ... 99764.html

The world's gone mad

To some people having to spend over £100 to feed your guests can be tough or feel unfair. When I was a kid my parents and grandparents shared the cost, that is just polite surely.

We will have 8 here.

One is paying for the turkey. Another is sorting a range of puds. Youngsters will provide their own booze.

No shame in sharing costs.

I thought that was normal, so the article surprised me because it would seem there are selfish twats who don't share the cost.

[MrLongbeard]

I thought that was normal, so the article surprised me because it would seem there are selfish twats who don't share the cost.

We've never shared costs, not because we're selfish twats, but because we don't need to, the whole family (both sides) have open door policies, if I invited folk, family or otherwise, around for xmas dinner the thought of charging them would never cross my mind, if they want to volunteer to bring something then great, but getting the card reader out after the brandy, never.

[gremlin]

It's bad form to turn up without contributing something, even if not expected to. Basic manners.

FIL brought two 1-liter bottles of Bacardi round the other day, as he'll have a few when he's here, but nowhere near two litres, I'm happy to say. We have one of Gremlinette's friends and her mum for dinner. They struggle a bit financially, so we've made it clear they don't need to bring anything, but I know they will.

The only exception is the wife's brother, who turns up for dinner with a few tins of Guinness, drinks them all, becomes boorish and then, thankfully, leaves. I don't think Debrett's will be using him as a consultant any time soon.

[Mr. Dazzle]

I wouldn't charge someone for a Turkey sammich, but on the other hand I would certainly feel a bit peeved if I'd forked £hundreds out to feed 12 people are they all just turned up empty handed.

It winds my Mum up I know, my brother still assumes she is gonna pay for anything when they're out because, you know, that's what happened when we were kids. But he's 43 now.....

[gremlin]

Some kids never grow up. I bet your brother doesn't still live at home....

[Cousin Jack]

I work on the basis that I only invite people if I can afford to, so I am not expecting any contribution. Most people bring a present of some sort, but I try to discourage expensive stuff because it gets into a pissing contest, and some can afford more than others.

[MrLongbeard]

I wouldn't charge someone for a Turkey sammich, but on the other hand I would certainly feel a bit peeved if I'd forked £hundreds out to feed 12 people are they all just turned up empty handed.

It winds my Mum up I know, my brother still assumes she is gonna pay for anything when they're out because, you know, that's what happened when we were kids. But he's 43 now.....

Totally, to turn up without an offering, tray of pigs in blankets (spit) or bottle of bourbon / wine is rude, equally as much is asking for physical payment if you've been invited around.

[Taipan]

My Mum used to buy Tesco stamps throughout the year and give them to us at the beginning of December. In the early days when the kids were little we couldn't have afforded to feed everyone, so it was welcomed. Later in life i'd try to stop her but she'd insist saying we paid for the all the family BBQs throughout the year etc.

Now when I invite the family over people ask what they should bring and my wife glares when i issue my standard reply of, "Just your good selves". Wifey says I have no idea how much it costs, with all the drinks, mixers, additional food for teh evening and nibbles etc, but I DGAF and am just pleased to have everyone here and shes a tight cow, or put another way, more responsible with money than I am. Youngsters have a lot on their plate and for me its the spirit of Xmas to spread a bit of good cheer! Anyway, my Sister will always bring drinks and normally covers the desserts.

[Taipan]

The economy has shrunk again this month. I just saw Racheal Reeves interviewed and she said "THe numbers on economic growth are disappointing but isn't possible to turn round more than a decade of poor economic growth". FFS she inherited the fastest growing economy in the G7! Why is it every time I look at her I think Peter Principle?

I wonder why it was growing faster than other countries? Hmm.

Oh look! Maybe because it performed worse than lots of them before it picked up a bit.

Most of the western would was in a bit of trouble after covid, albeit to different amounts, but nevertheless we were still the fastest recovering economy in the G7 until Labours fiscal policies intervened.

[Count Steer]

The economy has shrunk again this month. I just saw Racheal Reeves interviewed and she said "THe numbers on economic growth are disappointing but isn't possible to turn round more than a decade of poor economic growth". FFS she inherited the fastest growing economy in the G7! Why is it every time I look at her I think Peter Principle?

I wonder why it was growing faster than other countries? Hmm.

Oh look! Maybe because it performed worse than lots of them before it picked up a bit.

Most of the western would was in a bit of trouble after covid, albeit to different amounts, but nevertheless we were still the fastest recovering economy in the G7 until Labours fiscal policies intervened.

Did you actually look at the graph? We had a bit of a spurt after hitting rock bottom and failed to catch up thereafter. Is the G7 more relevant than the EU?? + Have we really outperformed the USA?

As Gremmers said the current policy hasn't exactly turbocharged the economy in the few months since they got the hospital pass from the previous lot but let's not get carried away eh?

[Screwdriver]

Charging guests who come around for xmas dinner

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/bus ... 99764.html

The world's gone mad

That is a very British attitude to be so coy about money. I am in the extremely fortunate position (having no family of my own!) to have been invited to stay over Christmas with my ex. and her family. I'll be there for the best part of a week and I'll be packing in the carbs like a grizzly bear, before going back into hibernation for the rest of the winter.

Since she is a single mum, there's no way I would want to be any sort of financial burden and since she is also a Yorkshire lass, no problem at all in discussing a financial contribution. I have been flat broke for years having been unemployed for what, twenty years now (and no benefits!)*. It is literally a "holiday" anyway and as it's the only one I get, I am super happy to contribute.

No idea how a "family" would behave, I assume they take turns as hosts but one way or the other, it is only fair to share the costs surely?




*Re: benefits. I did try many years ago to exist on "jobseekers" but it was the most horrific and stressful period in my life, ever. Every time I turned up they would try to find some way to "sanction" me. They simply did not believe that I couldn't find work (I stood out like a white thumb). When I did get sanctioned, it nearly killed me. They just cut off every possible benefit instantly and even when you're found "not guilty" it takes weeks for the payments to kick back in. Also, incredibly, I am not entitled to any sort of disability benefit despite this blasted multiple sclerosis continuing to eat away at my brains. Effectively, I would have to become destitute before I would qualify. I don't know how that works when I see so many scroungers living the life of Riley but then I never was particularly "street smart".

[Taipan]

I wonder why it was growing faster than other countries? Hmm.

Oh look! Maybe because it performed worse than lots of them before it picked up a bit.

Most of the western would was in a bit of trouble after covid, albeit to different amounts, but nevertheless we were still the fastest recovering economy in the G7 until Labours fiscal policies intervened.

Did you actually look at the graph? We had a bit of a spurt after hitting rock bottom and failed to catch up thereafter. Is the G7 more relevant than the EU?? + Have we really outperformed the USA?

As Gremmers said the current policy hasn't exactly turbocharged the economy in the few months since they got the hospital pass from the previous lot but let's not get carried away eh?

Of course but I ignored it as its odds with whats been been widely touted about UK growth rate, with even The Guardian saying the new Prime Minister would inherit a growing economy etc blah. The point is Labour have changed that in a very short amount of time. Reeves can't keep blaming the previous Govt for the UKs problems when all she's actually done so far is make things worse! I hope her and Starmers long term plans come to fruition, he said knowingly...

[gremlin]

Most of the western would was in a bit of trouble after covid, albeit to different amounts, but nevertheless we were still the fastest recovering economy in the G7 until Labours fiscal policies intervened.

Did you actually look at the graph? We had a bit of a spurt after hitting rock bottom and failed to catch up thereafter. Is the G7 more relevant than the EU?? + Have we really outperformed the USA?

As Gremmers said the current policy hasn't exactly turbocharged the economy in the few months since they got the hospital pass from the previous lot but let's not get carried away eh?

Of course but I ignored it as its odds with whats been been widely touted about UK growth rate, with even The Guardian saying the new Prime Minister would inherit a growing economy etc blah. The point is Labour have changed that in a very short amount of time. Reeves can't keep blaming the previous Govt for the UKs problems when all she's actually done so far is make things worse! I hope her and Starmers long term plans come to fruition, he said knowingly...

Something else that impacts (soz Brexiteers) is the state of the EU and, as I mentioned in my previous post, both France and Germany have weighty political & economic troubles at the moment. Like it or not, them sneezing may well give us the sniffles. If Trumpton pulls up the drawbridge on trade, expect a dose of the 'flu.

That said, how the current govt. can talk about growth having slapped that budget on UK businesses whilst keeping a straight face is beyond me. I also have to wonder the gullibility of the voting public to think they fell for the 'no taxes for hard working families' without questioning where the magic money tree has been hiding for all these years.

Meh.

[Count Steer]

Most of the western would was in a bit of trouble after covid, albeit to different amounts, but nevertheless we were still the fastest recovering economy in the G7 until Labours fiscal policies intervened.

Did you actually look at the graph? We had a bit of a spurt after hitting rock bottom and failed to catch up thereafter. Is the G7 more relevant than the EU?? + Have we really outperformed the USA?

As Gremmers said the current policy hasn't exactly turbocharged the economy in the few months since they got the hospital pass from the previous lot but let's not get carried away eh?

Of course but I ignored it as its odds with whats been been widely touted about UK growth rate, with even The Guardian saying the new Prime Minister would inherit a growing economy etc blah. The point is Labour have changed that in a very short amount of time. Reeves can't keep blaming the previous Govt for the UKs problems when all she's actually done so far is make things worse! I hope her and Starmers long term plans come to fruition, he said knowingly...

Let me know when they've done more financial damage than Johnson and Farrago managed to do.

PS The Guardian isn't a Labour paper. Always was/still is Liberal...although it's hard to tell they're not Green/Stonewall/Mermaids in-house paper sometimes.

[Screwdriver]

What surprises me more is how well the UK is doing up against the powerhouse of the WEF/European Union project. The trade off for me was the promise of self governance, freedom from the globalist agenda driving a ridiculous number of laws and regulations for the benefit of large global corporations. Plus of course, the ability to manage our own laws on immigration.

There is no doubt we really do need a constant supply of immigrants to fill up the inexplicable (!) drop in western/European birthrate. There is also absolutely no doubt we do not need an unmoderated influx of illegal non-European immigrants. Somehow our governments never deliver on their promise to reduce the massive rise in illegal immigration. Starmer appears to actually welcome it...

We can all see how this influx is changing the face of Europe. Perhaps I see it more being in a minority demographic here in London. We can see it but we can't talk about it. Hopefully, the tide will turn with the new administration in the US effectively driving world affairs to be more beneficial to the general, indigenous population, rather than allowing this rampant invasion from less developed cultures which do not share our values but insist we adopt theirs.

[weeksy]

be more beneficial to the general, indigenous population, rather than allowing this rampant invasion from less developed cultures which do not share our values but insist we adopt theirs.

What a horrible thing to say. Especially as you say your parents/heritage was non-English. You'd still be a potato picker in Derry if your parents/whoever were not allowed in.

[Saga Lout]

...

Reeves can't keep blaming the previous Govt for the UKs problems when all she's actually done so far is make things worse! I hope her and Starmers long term plans come to fruition, he said knowingly...

I think you;ll find she can. Labour have only just stopped blaming Maggie for all the world's ills. There's lots of life left in the current blame game.