What do we want to argue about next?

[Mr. Dazzle]

They won't have much choice when their crappy old nails are broken down.

[Druid]

The Queen used to say Scone with an own and it was her English!

Yeah but she was posh.

I say scone as in own and I'm a working class lad from Wales.
My wife is a cockney and still pronounces it as in on even after more than 40 years of trying to educate her

[JackyJoll]

The Queen used to say Scone with an own and it was her English!

Yeah but she was posh.

I say scone as in own and I'm a working class lad from Wales.
My wife is a cockney and still pronounces it as in on even after more than 40 years of trying to educate her

I knew you were posh!

[KungFooBob]

Fastest cake in the world, innit.

[Saga Lout]

The Monty Hall problem. That's always good for a laugh.

Simply: Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to switch to door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch or stick?

[Mr. Dazzle]

[cheb]

Have you committed them all to memory or do you have to search for them?

[Mr. Dazzle]

Have you committed them all to memory or do you have to search for them?

We all have our crosses to bear, mine is remembering too much stuff.

Rubbish on FA cup winners mind.

[cheb]

And it's curious, to me anyway, what sticks. Pretty much the whole of The Meaning Of Liff being one.

[Cousin Jack]

The Monty Hall problem. That's always good for a laugh.

Simply: Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to switch to door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch or stick?

Stick. Or Switch if you prefer. Makes no difference

You had a 1 in 3 chance
Now the odds are 1 in 2
Switching will not improve the odds, still 1 in 2 whichever you choose

[JackyJoll]

I like this Wiki explanation of the Monty Hall.



You randomly picked Door 1. There was a 2/3 chance the car was behind one of the other two doors.

Then Monty took one losing choice away from the other two doors. That meant there was a 2/3 chance the car was behind the door you did not pick.

So, change your choice to improve your chance of winning.

[JackyJoll]

The Monty Hall problem. That's always good for a laugh.

Simply: Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to switch to door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch or stick?

Stick. Or Switch if you prefer. Makes no difference

You had a 1 in 3 chance
Now the odds are 1 in 2
Switching will not improve the odds, still 1 in 2 whichever you choose

What you say is intuitive to most normal people, but wrong.

[Mr. Dazzle]

The key thing to understand is its not random. The host took away a wrong answer which he knew was wrong.

[JackyJoll]

The key thing to understand is its not random. The host took away a wrong answer which he knew was wrong.

And to help make it an exciting TV show, sometimes a contestant will switch away from their correct original choice.

[Cousin Jack]

The key thing to understand is its not random. The host took away a wrong answer which he knew was wrong.

I don't understand.

The contestant has 3 boxes and zero information. So 1 chance in 3. He chooses and then host opens a box to show a booby prize
After the host ( who does know) takes away a wrong answer the odds are now 1 in 2. Contestant still has zero knowledge of those two boxes. So still even steven, makes no difference which he does. Still a 1 in 2 chance.

[Mr. Dazzle]

This is why Saga Posted it

Just look up the Monty Hall Problem, there are loads of vids and websites explaining it. It's a classic.

[JackyJoll]

The Monty Hall problem. That's always good for a laugh.

Simply: Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to switch to door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch or stick?

Stick. Or Switch if you prefer. Makes no difference

You had a 1 in 3 chance
Now the odds are 1 in 2
Switching will not improve the odds, still 1 in 2 whichever you choose

I suppose if you say there’s no Monty Hall paradox and I say there is, we’ve got something to argue about.

[JackyJoll]

The contestant has 3 boxes and zero information. So 1 chance in 3.

Yes, so there are 2 chances in 3 that the car is in one of the boxes not chosen. You must agree with that.

He chooses and then host opens a box to show a booby prize
After the host ( who does know) takes away a wrong answer the odds are now 1 in 2. Contestant still has zero knowledge of those two boxes. So still even steven, makes no difference which he does. Still a 1 in 2 chance.

No, the group of boxes that had 2 chances in 3 of containing the winning box became smaller when the host opened a booby prize box. The box that the contestant did not choose and the host did not eliminate has 2 chances in 3 of being the winner. The contestant’s original choice still only has 1 chance in 3 of being the winner.

[Mr. Dazzle]

You can even try it yourself if you like. Or look at someone else's results.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hal ... prov=sfla1

[Cousin Jack]

You can even try it yourself if you like. Or look at someone else's results.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hal ... prov=sfla1

A can of worms indeed! At least I appear to have some distinguished companions in my error.