Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by mangocrazy »

Re-joining the Customs Union would be the single most effective action to increase economic growth. It's so transparently obvious, but dogma means that it's the love that dare not speak its name. It doesn't even need freedom of movement as a prerequisite.
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Yambo »

wheelnut wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 10:15 am He seems to have his sights set on targeting businesses so he doesn’t have to target the ‘workers’

The employer’s NI raise is a short sighted tax hike and one likely to cause an overall drop in tax take.
You're spot on.

In reality all NI payments can be attributed to the employee. In economic terms there is no distinction

The cost of employing someone is their wage/salary + all employee and employers NI contributions (+ bonuses, PPI etc). Simply put, the cost of empoying someone or keeping them in your employ has gone up. This tax rise is directly attributable to having workers.

It shows the Chancellor and Prime Minister have no idea about how business works. This tax hike is certainly not going to get people back into work because it is going to cost too much to employ them.
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by gremlin »

Always a good barometer of economic sentiment: Gilt yields.

Put simply, how good is the economy looking looking in terms of buying UK govt. bonds? If the outlook is looking grim, sell them off.
In with this is the expected drops in Base won't happen, due to the government spending fuelling inflation.

https://www.ft.com/content/483303ca-cd2 ... f588ab0d4c
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Taipan »

I gather that if this was a tory budget the shit would have hit the fan! The lefty MSM have held back on the direct assault, but its clearly emerging that its a pretty disastrous budget. So how are you lefty people feeling about it now you have the Govt you entrusted to deliver what you think the Tories didnt?
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Mr Moofo »

Taipan wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 12:05 pm
weeksy wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 11:30 am
Taipan wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 11:26 am We'll all be sorry if we become solely dependent on online ordering
Why ?
If you dont like Amazon prices, where else will you take your custom? High street prices have always varied regionally too, although that is/can be applied in e-commerce.

Shopping isn't dead, most malls are crazy places at Xmas for instance, but a lot of people are savvy enough to check online pricing too. Like I say high st retailers cant compete with online retailers as they have much smaller overheads and tax breaks. Level the playing field and things might change.
I am quite happy to pay for things online- but they should be taxed at source - not after the financial shenanigans they are allowed to do re contributions to the mothership
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by demographic »

Massive extra funding for the NHS, and abolition of scumbag NonDom status.

I'll happily pay a bit more into the kitty as long as services are improved.
I'm not that fucking petty that I personally need improvements to my own bank account as long as I can see the least advantaged in society are benefitting.
I honestly believe that a country can be judged by how it treats its poorest people and helping the NHS is a large part of that.

The only way that the conservatives pumped money into anything was when they had a pipe out the back skimming cash off for themselves.
Plus that old chestnut about conservatives being the party of fiscal responsibility?
I think that recent events can show that up for the raw sewage that it is.

Am I a fan of Labour recently? Not especially but I have never ever voted for someone I liked yet, just for the people I disliked the least.
Can't say I'm a fan of Wes Streeting nor our continued support of the ongoing genocide in Gaza so I'd have to say that theresthings that definitely need some work.

It is kind of comicall seeing all the sour grapes from people who loved the conservatives and are now falling for Farrages totally obvious bullshit though.

Err, what was the phrase?

You lost, get over it snowflake? Aye that seems fairly close, it'll do.
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by wheelnut »

Taipan wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 8:24 pm I gather that if this was a tory budget the shit would have hit the fan! The lefty MSM have held back on the direct assault, but its clearly emerging that its a pretty disastrous budget. So how are you lefty people feeling about it now you have the Govt you entrusted to deliver what you think the Tories didnt?
What do you feel was disastrous about it?

I think it was naive in places, but the uncomfortable truth is that the county is up to its neck in debt with crumbling public services.
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Mr Moofo »

wheelnut wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 9:33 pm
Taipan wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 8:24 pm I gather that if this was a tory budget the shit would have hit the fan! The lefty MSM have held back on the direct assault, but its clearly emerging that its a pretty disastrous budget. So how are you lefty people feeling about it now you have the Govt you entrusted to deliver what you think the Tories didnt?
What do you feel was disastrous about it?

I think it was naive in places, but the uncomfortable truth is that the county is up to its neck in debt with crumbling public services.
How does putting the country further in debt make it better?
How does borrowing more, fudgeing the debt and paying public service worlers more, whilst private sector have to foot the bill make the economy better?
Our public services are woeful becaue many, such has the NHS have pissed so much up the wall (google helipad at Royal Sussex as a start)
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Taipan »

Mr Moofo wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 10:16 pm
wheelnut wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 9:33 pm
Taipan wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 8:24 pm I gather that if this was a tory budget the shit would have hit the fan! The lefty MSM have held back on the direct assault, but its clearly emerging that its a pretty disastrous budget. So how are you lefty people feeling about it now you have the Govt you entrusted to deliver what you think the Tories didnt?
What do you feel was disastrous about it?

I think it was naive in places, but the uncomfortable truth is that the county is up to its neck in debt with crumbling public services.
How does putting the country further in debt make it better?
How does borrowing more, fudgeing the debt and paying public service worlers more, whilst private sector have to foot the bill make the economy better?
Our public services are woeful becaue many, such has the NHS have pissed so much up the wall (google helipad at Royal Sussex as a start)
+1 and I think we're going to understandably have trouble with the farmers now. Muck spreaders to parliament square please! If they take the single person occupancy away i think we will see civil unrest!
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by wheelnut »

Mr Moofo wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 10:16 pm
wheelnut wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 9:33 pm
Taipan wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 8:24 pm I gather that if this was a tory budget the shit would have hit the fan! The lefty MSM have held back on the direct assault, but its clearly emerging that its a pretty disastrous budget. So how are you lefty people feeling about it now you have the Govt you entrusted to deliver what you think the Tories didnt?
What do you feel was disastrous about it?

I think it was naive in places, but the uncomfortable truth is that the county is up to its neck in debt with crumbling public services.
How does putting the country further in debt make it better?
How does borrowing more, fudgeing the debt and paying public service worlers more, whilst private sector have to foot the bill make the economy better?
Our public services are woeful becaue many, such has the NHS have pissed so much up the wall (google helipad at Royal Sussex as a start)
I’m not doing a party political thing but we are where we are.

What’s the alternative? Austerity? We’ve tried that.

Debt for infrastructure isn’t always a bad thing (although government backed projects never seem to go well) but debt to cover normal spending isn’t great.

Also agree with tiepin on the farmers - that’s a crazy move for a county that needs to look to secure its food production, all for the sake of pissing off a few rich people who’ve used farmland as part of IHT planning (who would have been caught up in CGT anyway when they came to sell).
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Count Steer »

Most farmers are tenants. So, is it their problem or the landowners? We always tend to refer to farmers when ownership of farms is raised.
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by wheelnut »

Count Steer wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 11:30 am Most farmers are tenants. So, is it their problem or the landowners? We always tend to refer to farmers when ownership of farms is raised.
I’m not sure that’s true. Yes a good proportion will be tenant or mixed ownership, but a good amount, if not the majority, will be family owned.
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Saga Lout »

wheelnut wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 11:14 am
I’m not doing a party political thing but we are where we are.

What’s the alternative? Austerity? We’ve tried that.
Really? I didn't notice any during the last 14 years of Tory tax and spend.
wheelnut wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 11:14 amDebt for infrastructure isn’t always a bad thing (although government backed projects never seem to go well) but debt to cover normal spending isn’t great.
I've never understood the idea that governments can spend our money better than we can. Governments are hopeless at spending money... Sorry, let me rephrase that: governments are great at spending money, they're just hopeless at spending money wisely.
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Count Steer »

wheelnut wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 12:52 pm
Count Steer wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 11:30 am Most farmers are tenants. So, is it their problem or the landowners? We always tend to refer to farmers when ownership of farms is raised.
I’m not sure that’s true. Yes a good proportion will be tenant or mixed ownership, but a good amount, if not the majority, will be family owned.
From memory I think the greatest number of working farms may be family owned (there's a lot of small ones) but the majority of the land area is privately owned and tenanted. There has been a recent trend to buy large amounts and put managers in.

I'm sure James Dyson doesn't farm all his 36,000 acres personally. :D
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Wossname »

Count Steer wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 11:30 am Most farmers are tenants…..
Not sure where you got that idea. I spent my life as a vet working in Cornwall; virtually all our farmers were owner occupiers - family farms, owned and farmed for generations, where this tax decision will cause major difficulties. It seems that it’s been taken, as often, with limited and blinkered understanding of the effects it will have on the ground (literally in this case). “ Oh, we didn’t realise….” Except they never actually say that.
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Mr. Dazzle »

Count Steer wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 2:59 pm
wheelnut wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 12:52 pm
Count Steer wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 11:30 am Most farmers are tenants. So, is it their problem or the landowners? We always tend to refer to farmers when ownership of farms is raised.
I’m not sure that’s true. Yes a good proportion will be tenant or mixed ownership, but a good amount, if not the majority, will be family owned.
From memory I think the greatest number of working farms may be family owned (there's a lot of small ones) but the majority of the land area is privately owned and tenanted. There has been a recent trend to buy large amounts and put managers in.

I'm sure James Dyson doesn't farm all his 36,000 acres personally. :D
I dunno, maybe he fitted his plough with one of them rolly ball things to make it easier.
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Noggin »

Wossname wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 3:57 pm
Count Steer wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 11:30 am Most farmers are tenants…..
Not sure where you got that idea. I spent my life as a vet working in Cornwall; virtually all our farmers were owner occupiers - family farms, owned and farmed for generations, where this tax decision will cause major difficulties. It seems that it’s been taken, as often, with limited and blinkered understanding of the effects it will have on the ground (literally in this case). “ Oh, we didn’t realise….” Except they never actually say that.
Seems to be the case in a lot of areas, not just government. People that make these sort of decisions shouldn't be in a position to do that without either some decent knowledge of the area/effects of the decisions or at least decent advisors with that knowledge.

But that's totally pie in the sky!!!
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by demographic »

Taipan wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:50 am
Mr Moofo wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 10:16 pm
wheelnut wrote: Fri Nov 01, 2024 9:33 pm

What do you feel was disastrous about it?

I think it was naive in places, but the uncomfortable truth is that the county is up to its neck in debt with crumbling public services.
How does putting the country further in debt make it better?
How does borrowing more, fudgeing the debt and paying public service worlers more, whilst private sector have to foot the bill make the economy better?
Our public services are woeful becaue many, such has the NHS have pissed so much up the wall (google helipad at Royal Sussex as a start)
+1 and I think we're going to understandably have trouble with the farmers now. Muck spreaders to parliament square please! If they take the single person occupancy away i think we will see civil unrest!

Shame you didn't give a shite when you knackered the farmers (and fishermen for that matter) with a Brexit vote though eh?
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by Count Steer »

If anyone is still interested in some thoughtful assessments of the budget now the tribal-political-social-media bolleaux has died down a bit (see up there ^^^^ for details), here's a couple of shortish bits on strengths, weaknesses and challenges that the budget had (or didn't).

https://theconversation.com/five-ways-t ... ever%20did

https://theconversation.com/big-bold-an ... y%20budget
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Re: Budget day. Watcha hoping for/dreading?

Post by ZRX61 »

Just had a look at the budget inheritance tax on farms. Dumb bastard has killed 70% of the Ag industry.