Inflation

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

I've got £100 in Premium Bonds, I've won £200 with them, and I've still got my £100 I started with.

[Count Steer]

My PBs seem to be doing what they did last year. Monthly wins for the first 3 months giving about 4% then taking the rest of the year off.

[Noggin]

I guess I need more than £5 in there to actually win anything

[Dodgy69]

I've had a couple of poor months, does probability mean I've got good months to come.

[Mr. Dazzle]

Does probability mean I've got good months to come.

No.

This is exactly the misunderstanding lotteries rely on.

[Count Steer]

Does probability mean I've got good months to come.

No.

This is exactly the misunderstanding lotteries rely on.

A roulette wheel has no memory.

[Dodgy69]

Toss a coin 100 times. What you get.

[KungFooBob]

Tennis elbow?

[Dodgy69]

At 100 I was 44/56. I got 50/50 at 5742.

[Yambo]

At 100 I was 44/56. I got 50/50 at 5742.

. . . and at 5743 it suddenly wasn't 50/50 any more.

[Cousin Jack]

I was chatting with my mate this morning, he's had to nip into work and was a bit fed up, so the conversation wandered into wondering whether retirement is sensible for him in the current climate when he's running things a bit fine, or whether to stick it out a couple of years and bolster the bank balance. I said life isn't supposed to be this hard, we're wired to be out chasing woolly mammoths and picking fruit off trees, not stressing about interest rates

I imagine that chasing a wooly mammoth with a pointed stick could be stressful too, especially if the mammoth started chasing you instead.

[Count Steer]

I was chatting with my mate this morning, he's had to nip into work and was a bit fed up, so the conversation wandered into wondering whether retirement is sensible for him in the current climate when he's running things a bit fine, or whether to stick it out a couple of years and bolster the bank balance. I said life isn't supposed to be this hard, we're wired to be out chasing woolly mammoths and picking fruit off trees, not stressing about interest rates

I imagine that chasing a wooly mammoth with a pointed stick could be stressful too, especially if the mammoth started chasing you instead.

There would be quick stressful life/death events but personally I think what actually grinds people down is long term economic oppression where people never get a break from worrying about being able to manage the bills.

Spending 25yrs+ worrying about paying a mortgage and putting food on the table has to take its toll.

We generate a lot of that pressure ourselves though don't we? Get paid more, get a bigger mortgage, more expensive cars/hols/schools etc etc. Then find the 'spare cash/safety margin' has gone so need a) to desperately hang on to a job that, possibly, we don't like much and b) drive for promotion/more cash or c) chase a be££er job elsewhere.

Get the job/cash....get a bigger house/mortgage....

Rinse and repeat.

[Count Steer]

We generate a lot of that pressure ourselves though don't we?

Good question.
I don't remember being born with a desire for good school grades, a good job and a big salary - those are values driven into me by the system, which included my parents because they'd been a victim of it as well.

I suppose, in anthropological terms, like everything else we're born into a specific environment wired to a) survive b) perpetuate the genetic line. You're probably right that what a) actually means to an individual is down to conditioning and sometimes, later, to expectations of partner/offspring.

It'd be an interesting study to find what people's drivers are and why 'success' looks different to different people in the same environment. (In some situations having food and shelter would be a stretch target so environment's a biggie I guess). I'll have to see if there are any decent studies out there, it's an interesting topic.

[Horse]

At 100 I was 44/56. I got 50/50 at 5742.

. . . and at 5743 it suddenly wasn't 50/50 any more.

Might land and balance on the edge

[Mr. Dazzle]

Flipping coins isn't random at all when you think about it, it's entirely down to how you 'launch' it. Saying coin tosses are random is like saying throwing a ball is random.

With practice you can 'rig' a flipped coin to preferentially come up one way. If you get a machine to flip it you can get the same side every time.

Always call it when it's in the air!

[Buckaroo]

Even random has a pattern eventually, doesn't it?

[irie]

That is exactly what the overwhelming majority of economic commentators are publicly saying.

That would be ideal for me. At least for the next 18 months or so.

Ideally house prices will not start to rise for a similar amount of time. That may be too much to hope for

"Ideally house prices will not start to rise" for "at least for the next 18 months or so"?

https://www.theguardian.com/money/artic ... n-forecast

Savills says UK house prices will rise this year in U-turn on earlier forecast

Lower mortgage rates prompt property firm to change its outlook from 3% drop to a 2.5% increase

With a worsening housing shortage it's difficult to see prices falling ...

[Count Steer]

The Daily Express today: mortgage interest rates to drop and house prices to rise by 20%.

Makes a change from 'new wonder cure for arthritis' on their front page but really, they're the new 'London bus/WWII bomber found on moon' paper.

[irie]

I'm not sure there will be much movement either way with houses, in general, the average bread & butter properties don't seem to have any reason to go up or down significantly.

What I do see is the BTL type properties slowing down and dropping a bit because investment properties are less attractive now mortgage rates are up, so I'd guess that some of the amateur landlords that had a deposit sitting in the bank and thought they'd have a punt at it are less likely to take it on now. There is a small area of "affordable housing" near us and they seem to be going up for sale on a daily basis, my guess is the landlords have had enough and now their mortgage has swallowed up a big chunk of profit they don't need the hassle.

I've had a look on these property FB groups and loads are selling up because it's not worth the hassle of dealing with tenants unless you're making proper money to sooth the aggravation of it all. My wife's uncle is selling up, he's had enough of the hassle, he's also selling his two pubs.

The increased supply from rental property owners bailing out will soon be absorbed. Assuming Labour become the next government, it will need to print money to pay for its (as yet unknown) political agenda. With Picketty and Carney advising Labour what could possibly go wrong?

[Wscad]

I read a article yesterday that in some parts not enough electricity is available for new builds. Developers are holding back building new houses

Our holiday let cottages here in bronteland are still doing good but people are leaving it late to book them and bookings are slow this year. Fortunately we have no mortgage on any of them. Haworth is also a 52 week holiday destination because of the bronteland connection.

We will have a look things this time next year and maybe look to renting out 1 or 2 of them.

Uncertain times we are living in currently