Would you have an electric car if you had the money for a new car and were in the market for one?

[Mussels]

Toyota obviously want to tell a story beneficial to them but hybrids make more sense to me as the battery only dream still looks like just that. The battery tech breakthrough is still just around a very long corner.
Renewable energy is now being obstructed by the government as there's too much at peak times and no effective way to store it, the zero emissions from renewable energy only isn't happening.
The infrastructure still can't cope with mass car charging despite all the promises and time to fix it.

I think the industry has run out of people willing to pay a lot more for inconvenience.

[Mr. Dazzle]

The battery tech breakthrough is still just around a very long corner.

I've said it loads of times, but it's wrong to hold out for a sudden massive step change. Things seldom work out that way, it's much more boiling frog in reality.

Look for example at how battery cost has come down, it's dropped loads and is now on a more gentle slope. Also look at how many cars are getting incrementally more range without any physical size change. The new Taycan has 25% more range than the previous model, using a battery 9kg (loads, I know ) lighter than the old one. This sort of story is repeated across the industry.

[demographic]

Anyone seen Toyotas 1:6:90 theory?

Err, how do hybrids replace internal combustion engined cars when they also have an IC engine?

Or, Whatyoutalkingabout Willis?

[Supermofo]

Interesting test here. From the figures (which start at 14 mins) it's apparent that lopping 100 miles off any claimed range is a reasonable assumption. Seems paying for a heat pump is a waste of money (takes between 85k and 500k to pay for itself) and tariffs make a big difference when you compare 10k mile ownership. More so when you factor in leccy cars are more expensive to start and you need to by a home charger as without one it's probably more expensive than ICE.

[Taipan]

Anyone seen Toyotas 1:6:90 theory?

Err, how do hybrids replace internal combustion engined cars when they also have an IC engine?

Or, Whatyoutalkingabout Willis?

It's about overall environmental impact. Google TOYOTA'S 1:6:90 RULE for multiple arguments, but here's the theory from Toyotas perspective...

Understanding the 1:6:90 Rule

The 1:6:90 Rule essentially posits that the raw materials required to manufacture one battery electric vehicle could alternatively be used to produce six plug-in hybrids or a staggering 90 hybrid vehicles. Toyota argues that the overall carbon reduction achieved by these 90 hybrids over their lifetime is 37 times greater than that of a single battery electric vehicle.

Read more at: https://yourstory.com/2024/03/toyota-ev-hybrid-debate

[Supermofo]

Interesting test here. From the figures (which start at 14 mins) it's apparent that lopping 100 miles off any claimed range is a reasonable assumption. Seems paying for a heat pump is a waste of money (takes between 85k and 500k to pay for itself) and tariffs make a big difference when you compare 10k mile ownership. More so when you factor in leccy cars are more expensive to start and you need to by a home charger as without one it's probably more expensive than ICE.

Actually just worked out my 10k mile fuel cost at about £1500 for my Mazda 3. So compared to the Lexus in that test you only save £332 on a standard tariff but would pay £1683 more for public charging (unlikely). Even with a cheap overnight tariff you'd only save £1218 a year and that doesn't factor in the price difference between the Mazda (about 23k new) vs the Lexus's £70k odd. Or even the cheapest EV in the test at £30k odd.

[Slenver]

that doesn't factor in the price difference between the Mazda (about 23k new) vs the Lexus's £70k odd.

You need to compare apples to apples to get a fair comparison, though, not a small Mazda vs a Lexus...!

The Audi Q4 my missus has just bought is cheaper to lease than an equivalent ICE Q5. And by my rough calcs, will save us at least £1400/yr on fuel costs, and that's without having the lowest nighttime EV tariff.

For us, the main benefit of it being electric is it saving us a small fortune... certainly won't work out like that for everyone, but the notion that EV has to be more expensive, esp buying new, just isn't true at all. Wouldn't work out that way for a cheap hatchback mind you.

[Supermofo]

that doesn't factor in the price difference between the Mazda (about 23k new) vs the Lexus's £70k odd.

You need to compare apples to apples to get a fair comparison, though, not a small Mazda vs a Lexus...!

The Audi Q4 my missus has just bought is cheaper to lease than an equivalent ICE Q5. And by my rough calcs, will save us at least £1400/yr on fuel costs, and that's without having the lowest nighttime EV tariff.

For us, the main benefit of it being electric is it saving us a small fortune... certainly won't work out like that for everyone, but the notion that EV has to be more expensive, esp buying new, just isn't true at all. Wouldn't work out that way for a cheap hatchback mind you.

Yeah probably not. As I said a quick look says a new Mazda 3 is about £23kish, the BYD in that test was £30kish. But it certainly makes a difference as you say pending deals in the round rather than direct total cost.

Having said that if I replaced mine (2016) I'd probably swap for a used 2020 Mazda 3 or like and then the difference to leccy is a fair amount more.

[Slenver]

that doesn't factor in the price difference between the Mazda (about 23k new) vs the Lexus's £70k odd.

You need to compare apples to apples to get a fair comparison, though, not a small Mazda vs a Lexus...!

The Audi Q4 my missus has just bought is cheaper to lease than an equivalent ICE Q5. And by my rough calcs, will save us at least £1400/yr on fuel costs, and that's without having the lowest nighttime EV tariff.

For us, the main benefit of it being electric is it saving us a small fortune... certainly won't work out like that for everyone, but the notion that EV has to be more expensive, esp buying new, just isn't true at all. Wouldn't work out that way for a cheap hatchback mind you.

Yeah probably not. As I said a quick look says a new Mazda 3 is about £23kish, the BYD in that test was £30kish. But it certainly makes a difference as you say pending deals in the round rather than direct total cost.

Having said that if I replaced mine (2016) I'd probably swap for a used 2020 Mazda 3 or like and then the difference to leccy is a fair amount more.

Yep.. the fact that there are still far fewer electric models, and fewer still at the smaller/cheaper end, means there's just not a like-for-like comparison for all cars. I think that given their more expensive positioning, and better efficiency, they probably make more financial sense the higher up the ladder you go. You're not gonna get many petrol Taycan competitors that'll do 200mpg, or be much cheaper to buy, but it's a different story if you're after a Fiesta. And leasing/buying is another can of worms.

[Supermofo]

Watched a couple of vids about Porsche Taycan's recently. One where a bloke got offered 3 new ones in order to have a chance to buy a GT3 RS. He didn't go for it cos with delivery mileage he'd lose about £40k per Taycan. And another where a bloke bought a Taycan for £120k 3 years ago and is now being offered a max of £41k from any of the buying sites and 1 dealer wouldn't take it in part ex against a 911.

My Dad was saying at last years Kop Hill (where there was a Taycan going up the hill) that London was awash with them. Seems no one wants them now though, especially 2nd hand.

[Mr. Dazzle]

TBF a big chunk of that is just "really expensive Porsche Saloons depreciate like stones".

This car...3 years old...has also lost nearly 50% of its value. And this is the dealer sales price, not how much it PXd/sold for.

https://finder.porsche.com/gb/en-GB/det ... -date=2021

[Mussels]

I'd be rather tempted by one of these heavy electric depreciators, a lot of car for the money.
Except:
a) They are still rubbish as an only car, I need at least one vehicle that can easily do over 500 miles in a day.
b) I want to get away from stupidly expensive tyre and brake bills. I know EVs do regenerative braking but I bet these ones still cost a bomb in discs and pads.

[Mr. Dazzle]

a) They are still rubbish as an only car, I need at least one vehicle that can easily do over 500 miles in a day.

Porsche has ya fam, they've done over 2000 miles in a 24hr period including stops for charging* No word on how many brake discs they got through.

https://www.porsche.com/stories/mobilit ... ing-taycan

*Which of course, means an average speed of nearly 100mph

[Mussels]

a) They are still rubbish as an only car, I need at least one vehicle that can easily do over 500 miles in a day.

Porsche has ya fam, they've done over 2000 miles in a 24hr period including stops for charging* No word on how many brake discs they got through.

https://www.porsche.com/stories/mobilit ... ing-taycan

*Which of course, means an average speed of nearly 100mph

In the real world, my day would usually be a maximum of 12 hours long and doesn't centre around working fast chargers. It also involves driving in heat, cold, rain and over 50mph.
Even a 500 mile range would worry me as that's the most I expect to need to do, other things may happen.

[Cousin Jack]

It's not only the range, and the lack of available chargers, there are multiple issues.

The dire trade-in price on EVs
The lack of garages with the skills to work on EVs
The lack of available spares if something does go wrong.

The real problem is that IC technology has evolved slowly, with a big support infrastructure built up around it. EVs have borrowed other technologies (heavy current electrics, modern electronics) that have also existed and developed, but have a different infrastructure based on back-to-the-manufacturer servicing, or card change and throw away/back-to-the factory repair. Fixing your EV is not going to be easy. Modern IC vehicles have borrowed the change-and-throw-away bit a great deal in recent years too, but EVs takes it to a whole new level.

[Saga Lout]

It's not only the range, and the lack of available chargers, there are multiple issues.

The dire trade-in price on EVs
The lack of garages with the skills to work on EVs
The lack of available spares if something does go wrong.

And the biggest issue, which is going to stop everybody getting an EV is that there won't be enough electricity. The people who want us all to buy EVs are the same people who are going to shut down all the fossil fuel power stations. Good luck charging your EV on unreliables. If the government was serious about Net Zero any time soon they'd be building nuclear power stations and lots of them. They're not, so they aren't.

[Mr. Dazzle]

And the biggest issue, which is going to stop everybody getting an EV is that there won't be enough electricity. The people who want us all to buy EVs are the same people who are going to shut down all the fossil fuel power stations. Good luck charging your EV on unreliables. If the government was serious about Net Zero any time soon they'd be building nuclear power stations and lots of them. They're not, so they aren't.

That's not true and it wasn't true the last few times you said it either.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/jo ... ctric-cars

[Horse]

If the government was serious about Net Zero any time soon they'd be building nuclear power stations and lots of them. They're not, so they aren't.

Wasn't there something in the news recently (or budget) about building mini-reactors?

That's not true and it wasn't true the last few times you said it either.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/jo ... ctric-cars

Ooh. Didn't know this:

Fully Charged’s video Volts for Oil estimates that refining 1 gallon of petrol would use around 4.5kWh of electricity

[Cousin Jack]

Patience my friends, the demise of IC has already been deferred to 2035. Wait a bit and it will go back further, and it really is not dependent on technology.

Come the evil day when new IC cars are about to be banned a LOT of politicians are going to wake up to the fact that a MASSIVE number of their electorate rely upon cheap and relatively reliable cars. IC cars. And most of them live in streets with no garages or driveways. The PM who condemns them to catching the bus is gong to be a bit unpopular.

When the market is flooded with cheap and relatively reliable EVs, and the infrastructure is available EVERYWHERE to charge them relatively cheaply and conveniently, THAT will be the time to ban ICs. Perhaps.

[Mr. Dazzle]

Fully Charged’s video Volts for Oil estimates that refining 1 gallon of petrol would use around 4.5kWh of electricity

yeah that's a really interesting number...I wonder if it's just "refine" or "refine and get it into your tank" as well.

4.5kWh would get a leccy car maybe 10-20 miles, depending on a number of factors. That gallon of fuel would get a petrol car around 20-40 miles. But if you have to consider transporting the fuel to your tank in teh first place, you can see that the energy saved by not making and distributing petrol is nearly enough to power EVs before you even consider anything else.

Electricity does of course incur transport and storage losses/inefficiencies, but it's orders of magnitude better than fossil fuels in that regard.