Is Russia just about to invade Ukraine?

[DEADPOOL]

I was referring to the conversation we were having, not the situation itself. If I'd used the word 'conversation' instead of 'subject' that would have been clearer.

I thought we were having a conversation about the situation?

But yes, using the correct words in the right order would help.

My bad, I've become so used to not having to spell everything out for everyone else that I forgot to make an allowance for you. I'll stick to the other Russia thread from now on, I can see why it gets far more engagement

Yes, make it personal then run away when you lose the argument.

[irie]

I thought we were having a conversation about the situation?

But yes, using the correct words in the right order would help.

My bad, I've become so used to not having to spell everything out for everyone else that I forgot to make an allowance for you. I'll stick to the other Russia thread from now on, I can see why it gets far more engagement

Yes, make it personal then run away when you lose the argument.

But yes, using the correct words in the right order would help.

That's ^^^making it personal

[weeksy]

Behave children.... next time it won't be a 24 hour lock, it'll be a thread deletion and a bit of time in solitary

[David]

Watch it....weeksy has the slipper out!

[Screwdriver]

This Wagner nonsense is an interesting analogy to "news" and scientific theory. We have some observations, some information (which may or may not be true) and we try and "model" a theory to explain these behaviours. It is very easy to create a narrative or a model which fits with the "facts". So easy, I am going to have a go myself.

Prigozhin: Your generals are crap, they don't know what they're doing. We are giving you all of these victories.
Putin: Whatever. That's what you're being paid for. You have to do what you're told.
Prigozhin: Not if you're using my troops as cannon fodder. This isn't a suicide mission.
Putin: OK fuck it. You know what, you are now conscripted into the Russian army. Do as you are told.
Prigozhin: Fuck you. I'm outta here.

Russian forces accidentally bomb the crap out of Prigozhin's rear guard with what appear to be targeted missile strikes.

Prigozhin: Right that's it. I'm coming after you motherfucker.
Putin: You wouldn't dare.
Prigozhin: <strolls into Russia, wanders over to the nearest military base. captures it.>
Putin: Fuck, fuck, fuck. Ok. err, if you call it off, how about I offer you all an amnesty? Let you go, no repercussions. Like it never happened...
Prigozhin: Full pardon for me and all my troops, no conscription?
Putin: Yeah yeah. Promise....

It's easy to overthink and clearly there is a ton of stuff we don't know and a ton of stuff we think we know which is false. I think the "strategy" being to have Prigozhin form a new front line in Belarus falls into the latter category. If they were going to do it, there's no need to make such a song and dance about it. Nor would Prigozhin telegraph his intentions to "occupy" Belarus if the plan was for a coup d'état.

If nothing else though, it might interrupt the American efforts to just keep this money train on the rails...

[Screwdriver]

In recent news: " Putin said. "You will be able to conclude a contract with the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense, return to your families or go to Belarus. I will keep my word," he lied. Err, "said" I mean...

So basically, Prigozhin has fucked up big time. It seems like the story is not too dissimilar to my fantasy commentary. Work for us, go home or fuck off to Belarus.

Prigozhin is a nasty piece of work of course. Ex people smuggler (mostly young girls), mercenary, thug you name it and if he is daft enough to go to Belarus, he's gonna wake up dead sooner rather than later. Putin will wait for the wave of popularity to subside then have him quietly thrown out of a window.

[Screwdriver]

A sobering commentary.



Tucker Carlson Talks To Colonel Douglas Macgregor About The Ukraine War

[Yambo]

A sobering commentary.



Tucker Carlson Talks To Colonel Douglas Macgregor About The Ukraine War

I don't know what the Americans are being told about the Ukraine war effort and I don't read much from the UK media either but I know quite a few Ukrainians, some very well and one friend who is in Zaporizhzhia.

I know that the war is not going well for Ukraine. I know that they suffered enormous losses around Bakhmut (as did the Russians), far more than they have allowed the world to know about or that they want to admit to.

But, they don't want to be a part of a greater Russia and they'll die to not be. The way it seems to be going is that Russia wants to absorb a wasteland and don't seem to care that the people that are left may well be a problem for another 50 years. It won't be Putin's problem. There'll be no real end to this war, Ukraine can't win and Russia's short term gains will be minimal.

Will the US join in? I don't think so. Even Biden's string pullers must know that they also could not win - they could certainly give Putin a bloody nose but there'll be no winners in WW3 cos that's what'll happen.

It's a pity that they couldn't get someone a bit more senior for the piece. Colonel's are 10 a penny in the USA.

[Hoonercat]

A sobering commentary.



Tucker Carlson Talks To Colonel Douglas Macgregor About The Ukraine War

It's a pity they couldn't get someone who actually has some credibility. He stated this 3 days after the invasion

The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over, all of the Ukrainian troops there have been largely surrounded and cut off. You have a concentration down in the Southeast of 30 or 40,000 of them, and if they don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them

Lots of 'we know' (who is 'we'?) without a shred of evidence to back it up. He should stick to posting racial comments about Jews.

[Screwdriver]

Yeah, very difficult to pick out the truth from the opinions but isn’t that always the case? Especially in a war when disinformation and propaganda are tools of the trade.

It is difficult to be a dissenting voice of course so I doubt if Tucker had a great deal of choice who to interview. Clearly the mainstream media acts with one voice in support of the military industrial complex, a lot of very rich people are going to make a lot of money out of this. That’s not even news and sadly despite the MSM being so obviously biased by their owner/sponsors and (apparently) both “sides” of the US political parties also perfectly happy with this money spinner, it still does not guarantee any dissenting voices will not also have their own version of “the truth” which also may not correspond with the reality.

I guess we just have to pick the bones of whatever stories we may hear and try to form some sort of picture of what may be happening. I seriously can’t believe it is still going. When will it ever end and what does the end look like anyway?

[Hoonercat]

Yeah, very difficult to pick out the truth from the opinions but isn’t that always the case? Especially in a war when disinformation and propaganda are tools of the trade.

'We know' that 400,000 Ukrianians soldiers have died...50,000 amputees...'. That's not an opinion, it's a statement of fact. And given that no one outside the Ukraine and Russian military and govts have even a close approximation of casualties, it's probably safe to say his claims are bullshit.

A few other gems from MacGregor. This one came a fews days after his intial prediction

So, I would say another 10 days this should be completely over... I think the most heroic thing he could do right now is come to terms with reality. Neutralize Ukraine.

And a couple of weeks later in March

The war is really over for the Ukrainians. They have been grounded to bits. There’s no question about that despite what we report on our mainstream media.

July '22

The war, with the exception of Kharkiv and Odesa, as far as the Russians are concerned is largely over. There is no intention to do anything else because the Russians don’t have a very large army

Sept '22

The Ukrainian army is bled white, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops have been killed or wounded, Ukraine is really on the ropes

Probably not the most reliable source as far as the Russian-Ukraine was is concerned then...
He also appeared on RT in 2014 and called for the annexation of Donbas, shortly after Russia annexed Crimea. So not exactly impartial either.

[Screwdriver]

Is there such a thing as "a reliable source"? What are the accepted numbers? Accepted by who?

If a larger number of people believe something to be true, does that make it true?

Like I said, it is interesting to see both "sides" of an argument and I don't doubt for a moment that hyperbole is never confined to one or the other.

[Cousin Jack]

I am not certain which is worst.

The WW1/2 system, where you were only ever fed your own side's propaganda

or today's version where you are fed both side's propaganda, plus 98 other misinformed opinions as well.

[Hoonercat]

Is there such a thing as "a reliable source"? What are the accepted numbers? Accepted by who?

If a larger number of people believe something to be true, does that make it true?

Like I said, it is interesting to see both "sides" of an argument and I don't doubt for a moment that hyperbole is never confined to one or the other.

Personally I don't accept any of the quoted figures as being true. Both sides are likely to exaggerate enemy losses while playing down their own losses. Everyone else is just guessing or making up numbers.

[Screwdriver]

Neither side will be particularly keen to share their losses, even Russia would not like the world to find out how they have decimated their much smaller competition. My assumption was as soon as Russia had boots on the ground, the war was over bar the shouting.

But then the US get involved (as if Hunter Biden and creepy Joe weren't already syphoning off Ukraines oil and gas riches) and with their massively powerful intelligence gathering, they can keep this money making scheme going for all eternity. Russia had no answer early on to the fantastically precise intel which meant they had to change their strategy and the net effect being a massive slow down.

Under those circumstances, it's a stalemate, neither side can "win" and certainly the US do not appear to have any coherent answer to what their end goal is. My take is the industrial military complex are quite happy for this to continue in perpetuity. Until we run out of Ukrainians.

My takeaway from the above video was:

Casualties are perhaps the only factor in determining the longevity of this proxy war and the US are much more likely to run out of proxies (Ukrainians) before Russia do.

It appears to be an accepted consequence of this war that Zelensky is going to be a very rich man at the end of it. US companies are lining up to secure massive rebuild contracts (assuming the US "wins". They are buying those contracts from Zelensky.

Arms shipments are sporadic at best and there were some questions over the quality and quantity of those shipments, plus the inevitable poaching by arms traders and the corrupt Ukrainian receivers (lit.) of those weapons. On top of that, the massive amounts of cash being shovelled over to Ukraine are simply unaccounted for. There is literally no accounting for where all that money is going - despite the Senate requesting an audit. None is forthcoming.

What a nightmare. Putin has apparently booby trapped the largest nuclear power station in Europe so even if this does not escalate to a nuclear conflict, it still has the potential for a nuclear disaster...

[Hoonercat]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217

"Ukraine gives no official toll of its war dead - the Ukrainian armed forces have reiterated that their war casualty numbers are a state secret - but Margo knows the losses are huge.

The figures remain classified. But US officials, quoted by the New York Times, recently put the number at 70,000 dead and as many as 120,000 injured. It is a staggering figure, from an armed forces estimated at only half a million strong."

So basically Russia has taken out 2/5ths of Ukraine's fighting force, and probably more.
And that's with the whole might of the western world supporting them.

Reuters also ran the story, and added that the same officials claimed 300,000 Russian casualties. If you believe those figures, Ukraine has pretty much taken out Russia's initial invasion force, twice over, which equates to about 1/3rd of Russia's active military personel. But, for both sets of figures, that's a big 'if'

The officials cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose official figures

[Hoonercat]

My takeaway from the above video was:

From an army of 500,000, he claims 400,000 dead, 40-50,000 amputees and no idea of other casualties (which tend to be alot higher than deaths). From a man who has continuously, since the start of the war, claimed that the Ukraine army is finished. And yet, despite the entire Ukraine army being (more than) wiped out (repeatedly) and the country there for the taking, the Russians are still on the defensive
And you took something away from that video? Isn't the above enough to set your alarm bells ringing?

[Screwdriver]

My takeaway from the above video was:

From an army of 500,000, he claims 400,000 dead, 40-50,000 amputees and no idea of other casualties (which tend to be alot higher than deaths). From a man who has continuously, since the start of the war, claimed that the Ukraine army is finished. And yet, despite the entire Ukraine army being (more than) wiped out (repeatedly) and the country there for the taking, the Russians are still on the defensive
And you took something away from that video? Isn't the above enough to set your alarm bells ringing?

Well, yes. If you hadn't edited out the end of my statement you would have seen this:

Casualties are perhaps the only factor in determining the longevity of this proxy war and the US are much more likely to run out of proxies (Ukrainians) before Russia do.

I do not take any of these videos at face value and while you can (and should) point out some of the obvious exaggerations or hyperbole (as I said before), using a variety of sources especially from opposite sides of the argument, you can draw your own opinion from between the lies damned lies and statistics on offer.

<edit> not forgetting you should compare like with like since Russia are clearly throwing conscripts into the meat grinder. You say 500k troops when Reuters et.al. suggest 540k combined army/air and 900k reservists (military training within 5 years). Why did you pick the lower number and not the total forces available?

[Screwdriver]

Try this one:



I know this chap from his other (science) channel. He tends to only go with demonstrable well sourced information. There's no bottom line number but an interesting treatise on how difficult it will be to establish a figure.

[Hoonercat]

My takeaway from the above video was:

From an army of 500,000, he claims 400,000 dead, 40-50,000 amputees and no idea of other casualties (which tend to be alot higher than deaths). From a man who has continuously, since the start of the war, claimed that the Ukraine army is finished. And yet, despite the entire Ukraine army being (more than) wiped out (repeatedly) and the country there for the taking, the Russians are still on the defensive
And you took something away from that video? Isn't the above enough to set your alarm bells ringing?

Well, yes. If you hadn't edited out the end of my statement you would have seen this:

Casualties are perhaps the only factor in determining the longevity of this proxy war and the US are much more likely to run out of proxies (Ukrainians) before Russia do.

I do not take any of these videos at face value and while you can (and should) point out some of the obvious exaggerations or hyperbole (as I said before), using a variety of sources especially from opposite sides of the argument, you can draw your own opinion from between the lies damned lies and statistics on offer.

<edit> not forgetting you should compare like with like since Russia are clearly throwing conscripts into the meat grinder. You say 500k troops when Reuters et.al. suggest 540k combined army/air and 900k reservists (military training within 5 years). Why did you pick the lower number and not the total forces available?

Because that's the 2023 figure given by Global Firepower, Statista and, most importantly, Potter, rather than using a mainstream media publication given your reluctance to believe anything they say. 200k active, 250k reserve, 50k Paramilitary. My bad for ommiting the navy and air force, which have both been practically redundant other than directing drones.