Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Current affairs, Politics, News.

Will Russia invade the Ukraine

Yes
20
49%
No
12
29%
Maybe
9
22%
 
Total votes: 41

Bigjawa
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigjawa »

MingtheMerciless wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 10:48 pm
Mussels wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 10:25 pm
Bigjawa wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 8:48 pm

Is this necessarily a good thing?

They're getting a load of old F-16s and a few weeks training. All Russia has to do is stick a few S-400 SAM systems well inside their own territory and they'll simply remove the F-16s from the sky.

Its not like sending a load of amateurs with AKs into Ukraine, the Russian air force is as professional as any other and they'll make a concerted effort to down those jets. And they'll do it.
I'm not so sure, Russia doesn't have air superiority and Ukraine has managed to keep some old Migs still flying.
If the Ukrainians are clever they'll be making much of flying the F16s when they get them and then letting drones simulate them into contested airspace and let the RuSSians expend very expensive and with low replacement rate S400 interceptors knocking down fake F16s, all the time giving the Ukranians locations for the very expensive S400 radars.
But can a drone really simulate an F-16 at 500 knots?

The S-400s won't just be sitting all alone, they'll be protected by Buks and other shorter range weapons. Chances are that even if Ukraine came across a huge stash of HARMs, they'd just have a pretty fireworks show.

The whole thing is grinding down into a bloody stalemate. Fancy jets in huge numbers couldn't win Vietnam for the yanks, a few elderly F-16s won't win against Russia who will just keep sending poorly trained conscripts in enough numbers to eventually bleed Ukraine dry.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by MingtheMerciless »

Bigjawa wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:40 am
MingtheMerciless wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 10:48 pm
Mussels wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 10:25 pm
I'm not so sure, Russia doesn't have air superiority and Ukraine has managed to keep some old Migs still flying.
If the Ukrainians are clever they'll be making much of flying the F16s when they get them and then letting drones simulate them into contested airspace and let the RuSSians expend very expensive and with low replacement rate S400 interceptors knocking down fake F16s, all the time giving the Ukranians locations for the very expensive S400 radars.
But can a drone really simulate an F-16 at 500 knots?

The S-400s won't just be sitting all alone, they'll be protected by Buks and other shorter range weapons. Chances are that even if Ukraine came across a huge stash of HARMs, they'd just have a pretty fireworks show.

The whole thing is grinding down into a bloody stalemate. Fancy jets in huge numbers couldn't win Vietnam for the yanks, a few elderly F-16s won't win against Russia who will just keep sending poorly trained conscripts in enough numbers to eventually bleed Ukraine dry.
The Israelis used drones to good effect to force the Syrian air defences to expose themselves. For this conflict, who knows, hopefully the Ukrainians use the F16's wisely and hopefully the Russians don't.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Yambo »

Bigjawa wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:40 am
The whole thing is grinding down into a bloody stalemate. Fancy jets in huge numbers couldn't win Vietnam for the yanks, a few elderly F-16s won't win against Russia who will just keep sending poorly trained conscripts in enough numbers to eventually bleed Ukraine dry.

That's it, in a nutshell.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Kneerly Down »

Potter wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:02 pm And to what end? So the yanks can restore Ukraine back to being one of the most corrupt countries on the planet?

I don't want any more of my tax money being given to them, I couldn't give a monkeys if it ends up being run by Russia, at least anymore than I care about who runs Somalia or any other place I don't care about.
Out of interest, do you care about Taiwan?
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Ant »

Potter wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:02 pm And to what end? So the yanks can restore Ukraine back to being one of the most corrupt countries on the planet?

I don't want any more of my tax money being given to them, I couldn't give a monkeys if it ends up being run by Russia, at least anymore than I care about who runs Somalia or any other place I don't care about.
Good lord, that's a bit harsh isn't it?
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by mangocrazy »

Potter wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:02 pm And to what end? So the yanks can restore Ukraine back to being one of the most corrupt countries on the planet?

I don't want any more of my tax money being given to them, I couldn't give a monkeys if it ends up being run by Russia, at least anymore than I care about who runs Somalia or any other place I don't care about.
So why single out Ukraine? Are you trying to tell us that Russia isn't corrupt, or that the USA (and the UK for that matter) aren't corrupt? I'd venture to say that support for Ukraine is more concerned with stopping Putin's creeping annexation of all the former USSR states than "mirror mirror on the wall, who's the corruptest of them all"...
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

Kneerly Down wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 4:39 pm
Potter wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 12:02 pm And to what end? So the yanks can restore Ukraine back to being one of the most corrupt countries on the planet?

I don't want any more of my tax money being given to them, I couldn't give a monkeys if it ends up being run by Russia, at least anymore than I care about who runs Somalia or any other place I don't care about.
Out of interest, do you care about Taiwan?
Come on KD, you know how this works.
Ask everyone else first and give him time to do a quick headcount before he decides which contrary view to take :thumbup:
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by ZRX61 »

Bigjawa wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:40 am The whole thing is grinding down into a bloody stalemate. Fancy jets in huge numbers couldn't win Vietnam for the yanks, a few elderly F-16s won't win against Russia who will just keep sending poorly trained conscripts in enough numbers to eventually bleed Ukraine dry.
That was down to Rules of Engagement, not the ability of the aircraft.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by ZRX61 »

Potter wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:26 am I see it for what it is and that's my view.
If you think pumping weapons and money into Ukraine is the answer then frankly I don't think you know what the question is, and indeed I'd suggest that fighting imaginary Bolsheviks outside our borders seems to be creating a lot of real ones inside our own borders.

The USA and UK are failing to properly govern their own countries and IMO no amount of invasions, wars and proxies will save the day, even if they do manage to convince most of you to go along for the ride.
The Galtieri/Hussein gambit...
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigjawa »

ZRX61 wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 7:21 pm
Bigjawa wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:40 am The whole thing is grinding down into a bloody stalemate. Fancy jets in huge numbers couldn't win Vietnam for the yanks, a few elderly F-16s won't win against Russia who will just keep sending poorly trained conscripts in enough numbers to eventually bleed Ukraine dry.
That was down to Rules of Engagement, not the ability of the aircraft.
I don't doubt the ability of the aircraft, even though it must have came as a rude surprise when they found out they couldn't Fox 1 their way out if trouble, I mean they dropped enough explosives on North Vietnam to change the height of mountains and they still lost because the NVs kept sending enough little guys with AKs to make the US give it up as a bad job.

Unlike the US, Putin doesn't care how many kids he sends home in bags as long as he wins.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by ZRX61 »

Bigjawa wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 8:46 pm Unlike the US, Putin doesn't care how many kids he sends home in bags as long as he wins.
Neither did Johnson & he already knew it was unwinnable. Ever though the VC were a spent force after '68 Tet.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Screwdriver »

ZRX61 wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 7:21 pm
Bigjawa wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:40 am The whole thing is grinding down into a bloody stalemate. Fancy jets in huge numbers couldn't win Vietnam for the yanks, a few elderly F-16s won't win against Russia who will just keep sending poorly trained conscripts in enough numbers to eventually bleed Ukraine dry.
That was down to Rules of Engagement, not the ability of the aircraft.
Not forgetting of course with that comparison regards the unwinnable Vietnam war, the Russian invaders are the US and the Ukrainians are the indigenous VC.
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irie
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Potter wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:26 am I see it for what it is and that's my view.
If you think pumping weapons and money into Ukraine is the answer then frankly I don't think you know what the question is, and indeed I'd suggest that fighting imaginary Bolsheviks outside our borders seems to be creating a lot of real ones inside our own borders.

The USA and UK are failing to properly govern their own countries and IMO no amount of invasions, wars and proxies will save the day, even if they do manage to convince most of you to go along for the ride.
Pssst, ever heard of NATO? After Ukraine Poland and Baltic states, then Finland, then ...

Blades as sharp as you said the same thing about Nazi Germany.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Potter wrote: Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:44 am
irie wrote: Tue Aug 22, 2023 6:04 pm
Pssst, ever heard of NATO? After Ukraine Poland and Baltic states, then Finland, then ...

Blades as sharp as you said the same thing about Nazi Germany.
And by that logic the Irish wanting part of their island back means they won't stop at that, so on to mainland UK, France, Germany, etc?
Perhaps Russia should give the IRA a squadron of F16's?
Posted elsewhere on RTTL but I guess you missed it.

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“, July 12, 2021

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Suggest you read all of it so as to avoid "cherry picking" (tm Michel Barnier).
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Bigjawa »

Quelle surprise......

BBC News - Wagner boss Prigozhin killed in plane crash in Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66599733
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

Bigjawa wrote: Wed Aug 23, 2023 6:14 pm Quelle surprise......

BBC News - Wagner boss Prigozhin killed in plane crash in Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66599733
I blame that The Spin Doctor character ...

https://nosurprise.org/

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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Bigjawa wrote: Wed Aug 23, 2023 6:14 pm Quelle surprise......

BBC News - Wagner boss Prigozhin killed in plane crash in Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66599733
He didn't fall out of a window? An individualist to the end.
Sky wrote: Ten killed in private jet crash north of Moscow - Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on passenger list'
But was he on the plane?
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Screwdriver »

If my name was Prigozhin and it ended up on a passenger list, I wouldn’t be getting on that plane.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by MyLittleStudPony »

I imagine he's a canny old goat and not easy to get rid of.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Mussels »

At one point the Russian empire was ruled from Kyiv, maybe they should take back their historic lands.