Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Mussels]

It's already gone wrong. Putin said Prigozhin and Wagner fighters could all go to Bealrus, Belarus said only Prigozhin and his entourage could go there.
So where are Wagner fighters going to go? There's a mutual dislike between them and the Russian miltary so it won't be a first choice for many, they were given the option of going home but that sounds too easy.

[Horse]

BBC Russian has been tracking which Russian aircraft were downed in the mutiny over the weekend.

That IL-22 is roughly the equivalent of a 1960s Vickers Viscount and Mil-8s are just a Russian Puma, it wouldn't take much to knock them down, the Kamov and the Hind would take more

The downing of those aircraft rather clobbers Prigozhin's "avoid bloodshed" statement.

If some were surveillance-type aircraft, were they brought down to hide the '5000' truth behind his '25000' statement?

[Hoonercat]

I'm far from convince that Mr Wagner would have signed his own death warrant - and most of his family's, by toadying to the CIA. And if he had, he would have never called it off - he would have known the end game / taken precautions.

And I doubt that the USA would really want someone who is worse than Putin in charge of nuclear weapons

Never underestimate the insanity of the Americans. They've created, trained and funded terrorist groups that ended up biting the hand that feeds them a few times, bringing Wagner into the fold and then wondering how they're standing in a nuclear waste ground in 18 months is entirely possible.

I very much doubt the Americans would do any kind of deal with Prigozhin. In recent months he's shown himself to be very unreliable, unpredictable and unable to keep his gob shut. But no doubt there are others higher up the political food chain who would entertain the idea of working with the Americans, providing someone further down the ladder takes the fall.

[MingtheMerciless]

https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/2023/ ... ition.html

Probably explains why the US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.

[Mussels]

That seems a bit OTT. It's hardly a minor war and Russia is running out of ammo as well, not quite sure how China fits into that.

[MingtheMerciless]

That seems a bit OTT. It's hardly a minor war and Russia is running out of ammo as well, not quite sure how China fits into that.

Missile (anti air/tank/HIMARS) and Artillery replacement rates are still at non war levels and will take years to come up to speed and refill the current hollowed out magazines let alone a deep magazine for a rumble with a peer competitor and China rightly or wrongly seems to be the peer adversary rising to challenge the US, especially in the pacific.......(cough Taiwan/Spratleys/Parcels).

[Bigjawa]

https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/2023/ ... ition.html

Probably explains why the US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.

Wouldn't matter even if the US was coming down with ammo, the CBU's are aready sitting there doing nothing, and morals aside, they work.

[MyLittleStudPony]

Sending cluster bombs to be used feels like a bad idea.

[Screwdriver]

Sending cluster bombs to be used feels like a bad idea.

Is any aspect of this war a good idea?

Not to worry, BlackRock have already secured the clean-up deal and having dirty munitions to deal for a few years with will just add to the profit margin. Bonus points for showing off their humanitarian side fixing up legless/armless children for the next couple of decades. Not to mention the surgical fees and pharmaceuticals. Plenty more money to be made yet.

[irie]

Sooner than expected ...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 023-07-11/

A coalition of 11 nations will start training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets in August in Denmark, and a training centre will be set up in Romania, officials said on Tuesday on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Lithuania.

[Mussels]

Istr something about the Yanks being upset recently because someone had already started training without permission, I think it was us.

[Hoonercat]

Istr something about the Yanks being upset recently because someone had already started training without permission, I think it was us.

AFAIK Denmark is the only country that has started training them (or at least, the only country who have admitted it). The UK plans to train Ukraine pilots 'in the summer' but I've not seen any official announcement that it has started.

[Bigjawa]

Istr something about the Yanks being upset recently because someone had already started training without permission, I think it was us.

AFAIK Denmark is the only country that has started training them (or at least, the only country who have admitted it). The UK plans to train Ukraine pilots 'in the summer' but I've not seen any official announcement that it has started.

How does the UK train them in F-16s? The RAF never used them?

[Mussels]

Istr something about the Yanks being upset recently because someone had already started training without permission, I think it was us.

AFAIK Denmark is the only country that has started training them (or at least, the only country who have admitted it). The UK plans to train Ukraine pilots 'in the summer' but I've not seen any official announcement that it has started.

How does the UK train them in F-16s? The RAF never used them?

It might not have been the UK that the US complained about but Ukrainian media seems to think the UK is involved. This was a month ago.
https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-war ... -2023.html

Ukrainian pilots will start the first phase of exercises on F-16 fighters in Britain: the media revealed details

[Bigjawa]

AFAIK Denmark is the only country that has started training them (or at least, the only country who have admitted it). The UK plans to train Ukraine pilots 'in the summer' but I've not seen any official announcement that it has started.

How does the UK train them in F-16s? The RAF never used them?

It might not have been the UK that the US complained about but Ukrainian media seems to think the UK is involved. This was a month ago.
https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-war ... -2023.html

Ukrainian pilots will start the first phase of exercises on F-16 fighters in Britain: the media revealed details

So they're just using the bases? Unless the RAF are putting chaps into 16s?

[Mr. Dazzle]

Could be training them on non aircraft specific procedures and tactics?

[Bigjawa]

Could be training them on non aircraft specific procedures and tactics?

That's what I meant, I suppose the likes of HARMs have a common interface across all aircraft?

[Mr. Dazzle]

Or even just how the radio works

I expect there's an entire sort of "system architecture" logic to western aircraft that's different to the soviet era stuff Ukraine has. Bit like switching from Android to iPhone.

[Horse]

How does the UK train them in F-16s? The RAF never used them?

Good old British ingenuity

[Mr. Dazzle]

It's the last thing anyone would expect.