Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Hoonercat]

If we're doing theories...
A country with a large number of very rich and very nervous oligarchs who, thanks to Putin, are seeing their assets, money and life expectancy dissolving. A mercenary warlord who was about to see his European business model and private army nationalised. A lot of background chatter about political movements in the shadows as the regional elections approach. And Putin, perceived to be a strong leader, is left looking anything but.
And then there's Lukashenko, who's relationship with Yeltsin at least had the appearance of some equality, reduced to a puppet under Putin's rule and, if those leaked documents are genuine, destined to lose power by 2030 when Russia swallows up Belarus.
There's a lot of powerful people around Putin who could gain an awful lot from his political downfall. Showing him to be weak would go a long way to achieving that.

[Horse]

20230626_190749.jpg (192.53 KiB) Viewed 589 times

[Potter]

If we're doing theories...
A country with a large number of very rich and very nervous oligarchs who, thanks to Putin, are seeing their assets, money and life expectancy dissolving. A mercenary warlord who was about to see his European business model and private army nationalised. A lot of background chatter about political movements in the shadows as the regional elections approach. And Putin, perceived to be a strong leader, is left looking anything but.
And then there's Lukashenko, who's relationship with Yeltsin at least had the appearance of some equality, reduced to a puppet under Putin's rule and, if those leaked documents are genuine, destined to lose power by 2030 when Russia swallows up Belarus.
There's a lot of powerful people around Putin who could gain an awful lot from his political downfall. Showing him to be weak would go a long way to achieving that.

I thought it was more likely to be an American sponsored event that fell apart at the seams as soon as it got going.
They've got plenty of form for toppling leaders and putting some corrupt nutcase in his place, and then wondering what to do next because they haven't thought that far.

[Mussels]

Here we go, Prigozhin and Wagner's new base. Putin wouldn't have said this without a plan.

Putin accused rebelling Wagner fighters of treason and — without mentioning their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin by name — offered them to either sign contracts with the army or leave for neighboring Belarus.

[Horse]

BBC Russian has been tracking which Russian aircraft were downed in the mutiny over the weekend.

Using open sourcing, it says that this includes three Mi-8 MTPR Electronic Warfare helicopters, two attack helicopters – a Ka-52 and Mi-35 – one military transport Mi-8, as well as one Il-22M command plane.

It also says that, according to Conflict Intelligence Team, an open source organisation with a focus on Russia, it’s possible that another Mi-8 MTPR helicopter was shot down near Luhansk on June 23, although there are no further details of this incident.

It’s currently unclear how many crew members died, BBC Russian says.

Of the aircraft lost, the most valuable is the Il-22M, BBC Russian says, an airborne command post from which troops can be controlled during combat operations.

[Mr Moofo]

If we're doing theories...
A country with a large number of very rich and very nervous oligarchs who, thanks to Putin, are seeing their assets, money and life expectancy dissolving. A mercenary warlord who was about to see his European business model and private army nationalised. A lot of background chatter about political movements in the shadows as the regional elections approach. And Putin, perceived to be a strong leader, is left looking anything but.
And then there's Lukashenko, who's relationship with Yeltsin at least had the appearance of some equality, reduced to a puppet under Putin's rule and, if those leaked documents are genuine, destined to lose power by 2030 when Russia swallows up Belarus.
There's a lot of powerful people around Putin who could gain an awful lot from his political downfall. Showing him to be weak would go a long way to achieving that.

I thought it was more likely to be an American sponsored event that fell apart at the seams as soon as it got going.
They've got plenty of form for toppling leaders and putting some corrupt nutcase in his place, and then wondering what to do next because they haven't thought that far.

I'm far from convince that Mr Wagner would have signed his own death warrant - and most of his family's, by toadying to the CIA. And if he had, he would have never called it off - he would have known the end game / taken precautions.

And I doubt that the USA would really want someone who is worse than Putin in charge of nuclear weapons

[Potter]

I'm far from convince that Mr Wagner would have signed his own death warrant - and most of his family's, by toadying to the CIA. And if he had, he would have never called it off - he would have known the end game / taken precautions.

And I doubt that the USA would really want someone who is worse than Putin in charge of nuclear weapons

Never underestimate the insanity of the Americans. They've created, trained and funded terrorist groups that ended up biting the hand that feeds them a few times, bringing Wagner into the fold and then wondering how they're standing in a nuclear waste ground in 18 months is entirely possible.

[Bigjawa]

BBC Russian has been tracking which Russian aircraft were downed in the mutiny over the weekend.

Using open sourcing, it says that this includes three Mi-8 MTPR Electronic Warfare helicopters, two attack helicopters – a Ka-52 and Mi-35 – one military transport Mi-8, as well as one Il-22M command plane.

It also says that, according to Conflict Intelligence Team, an open source organisation with a focus on Russia, it’s possible that another Mi-8 MTPR helicopter was shot down near Luhansk on June 23, although there are no further details of this incident.

It’s currently unclear how many crew members died, BBC Russian says.

Of the aircraft lost, the most valuable is the Il-22M, BBC Russian says, an airborne command post from which troops can be controlled during combat operations.

That IL-22 is roughly the equivalent of a 1960s Vickers Viscount and Mil-8s are just a Russian Puma, it wouldn't take much to knock them down, the Kamov and the Hind would take more, but something like a Stinger would deal with them easily. I imagine Wagner don't exclusively use Russian weapons.

[Mussels]

It's already gone wrong. Putin said Prigozhin and Wagner fighters could all go to Bealrus, Belarus said only Prigozhin and his entourage could go there.
So where are Wagner fighters going to go? There's a mutual dislike between them and the Russian miltary so it won't be a first choice for many, they were given the option of going home but that sounds too easy.

[Horse]

BBC Russian has been tracking which Russian aircraft were downed in the mutiny over the weekend.

That IL-22 is roughly the equivalent of a 1960s Vickers Viscount and Mil-8s are just a Russian Puma, it wouldn't take much to knock them down, the Kamov and the Hind would take more

The downing of those aircraft rather clobbers Prigozhin's "avoid bloodshed" statement.

If some were surveillance-type aircraft, were they brought down to hide the '5000' truth behind his '25000' statement?

[Hoonercat]

I'm far from convince that Mr Wagner would have signed his own death warrant - and most of his family's, by toadying to the CIA. And if he had, he would have never called it off - he would have known the end game / taken precautions.

And I doubt that the USA would really want someone who is worse than Putin in charge of nuclear weapons

Never underestimate the insanity of the Americans. They've created, trained and funded terrorist groups that ended up biting the hand that feeds them a few times, bringing Wagner into the fold and then wondering how they're standing in a nuclear waste ground in 18 months is entirely possible.

I very much doubt the Americans would do any kind of deal with Prigozhin. In recent months he's shown himself to be very unreliable, unpredictable and unable to keep his gob shut. But no doubt there are others higher up the political food chain who would entertain the idea of working with the Americans, providing someone further down the ladder takes the fall.

[Potter]

I very much doubt the Americans would do any kind of deal with Prigozhin. In recent months he's shown himself to be very unreliable, unpredictable and unable to keep his gob shut.

Enjoy reading...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... ime_change

[MingtheMerciless]

https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/2023/ ... ition.html

Probably explains why the US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.

[Mussels]

That seems a bit OTT. It's hardly a minor war and Russia is running out of ammo as well, not quite sure how China fits into that.

[MingtheMerciless]

That seems a bit OTT. It's hardly a minor war and Russia is running out of ammo as well, not quite sure how China fits into that.

Missile (anti air/tank/HIMARS) and Artillery replacement rates are still at non war levels and will take years to come up to speed and refill the current hollowed out magazines let alone a deep magazine for a rumble with a peer competitor and China rightly or wrongly seems to be the peer adversary rising to challenge the US, especially in the pacific.......(cough Taiwan/Spratleys/Parcels).

[Bigjawa]

https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/2023/ ... ition.html

Probably explains why the US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.

Wouldn't matter even if the US was coming down with ammo, the CBU's are aready sitting there doing nothing, and morals aside, they work.

[MyLittleStudPony]

Sending cluster bombs to be used feels like a bad idea.

[Screwdriver]

Sending cluster bombs to be used feels like a bad idea.

Is any aspect of this war a good idea?

Not to worry, BlackRock have already secured the clean-up deal and having dirty munitions to deal for a few years with will just add to the profit margin. Bonus points for showing off their humanitarian side fixing up legless/armless children for the next couple of decades. Not to mention the surgical fees and pharmaceuticals. Plenty more money to be made yet.

[irie]

Sooner than expected ...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 023-07-11/

A coalition of 11 nations will start training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets in August in Denmark, and a training centre will be set up in Romania, officials said on Tuesday on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Lithuania.

[Mussels]

Istr something about the Yanks being upset recently because someone had already started training without permission, I think it was us.