Would you have an electric car if you had the money for a new car and were in the market for one?

[Mr. Dazzle]

Solid state batteries already exist, Toyota already exist...so....dunno. I mentioned a few pages back about how Mercedes are also brining silicone anode batteries to market, they potentially have up to 10 times the energy density of current tech.

As I've said loads of times now, I don't think there's going to be a step change. There are lots of incremental changes which are already happening. This is also reflected in the ownership figures, loads of people say "oh you need a step change of XXX for wide spread adoption to occur" and meanwhile OEMs are selling (literally) millions of EVs. The snowball has already started rolling.

[Greenman]

If this report is to believed, and if Toyota is being entirely truthful about the solid state battery tech they are developing, then they are saying that by 2030 they will be able to commercially offer a battery with a range of greater than 700 miles and a recharge time of 10 minutes. Sounds (and smells) suspiciously like pie in the sky to me, but the EV market really does need a step change of this magnitude to gain widespread adoption.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ctric-cars

And a high explosive burn rate of 8000!

What ever happened to Hydrogen power, i though that was coming back into fashion again?

[mangocrazy]

As I've said loads of times now, I don't think there's going to be a step change. There are lots of incremental changes which are already happening. This is also reflected in the ownership figures, loads of people say "oh you need a step change of XXX for wide spread adoption to occur" and meanwhile OEMs are selling (literally) millions of EVs. The snowball has already started rolling.

What you're seeing are people with lots of disposable cash who can pick up another motoring toy to add to their collection. This is not mass adoption. Mass adoption is when the likes of grumpy old gits like me decide that it makes sense to go EV. At present that is sufficiently far in the future for it to be not worth thinking about.

Stuff like Toyota's alleged breakthrough is the kind of thing that could change my thinking, not incremental (read, very small) improvements.

[Slenver]

What you're seeing are people with lots of disposable cash who can pick up another motoring toy to add to their collection. This is not mass adoption. Mass adoption is when the likes of grumpy old gits like me decide that it makes sense to go EV. At present that is sufficiently far in the future for it to be not worth thinking about.

It's somewhere in between that. ICE cars still outsell EVs, but to say EVs are only bought as toys is hugely disingenuous. In December, the no.1, no.2 and no.9 best-selling cars in the UK were pure electric, and at least two others in the top 10 had electric variants of the models.

[Mr. Dazzle]

When I dropped my daughter at school this morning more than half the cars there were EVs, I made a note of it cause its some kind of threshold.

When the top 10 best selling cars list generally contains 1 or more EVs (which it does) it's time to stop thinking of them as niche IMO.

[Cousin Jack]

If this report is to believed, and if Toyota is being entirely truthful about the solid state battery tech they are developing, then they are saying that by 2030 they will be able to commercially offer a battery with a range of greater than 700 miles and a recharge time of 10 minutes. Sounds (and smells) suspiciously like pie in the sky to me, but the EV market really does need a step change of this magnitude to gain widespread adoption.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ctric-cars

That would make sense for me. However I won't hold my breath for it.

[mangocrazy]

There is of course the 'early adopter' and 'save the planet' demographics to consider here (and I'm not taking a pop at the ecologically aware), and I suspect that most of the EVs you see on the road have been bought by folks who fall within those loose groupings. It's converting the rest of the populace to go EV that will be the difficult bit, particularly those who can't afford a new EV and/or who don't have the means to charge at home.

[Mr. Dazzle]

There's at least one owner (I guess? He's gone quiet) who bought one because he prefers it on it's own merits.

viewtopic.php?t=7611

I'm the same, range isn't really an issue for me because of my lifestyle. If I can get an EV next I will because they're genuinely better cars IMO. Once you've driven a decent on going back to ICE is like downgrading, assuming range isn't a problem.

[Slenver]

There is of course the 'early adopter' and 'save the planet' demographics to consider here (and I'm not taking a pop at the ecologically aware), and I suspect that most of the EVs you see on the road have been bought by folks who fall within those loose groupings. It's converting the rest of the populace to go EV that will be the difficult bit, particularly those who can't afford a new EV and/or who don't have the means to charge at home.

Most of the people i know with electric cars are very much in the 'I want a new car and don't want to pay for petrol' demographics.

[Slenver]

If I can get an EV next I will because they're genuinely better cars IMO

It still depends on what you want from a car. I like manual sports cars with character and excitement, so have little interest in switching to electric. My missus likes to be as removed from the process of driving as possible and likes quiet, refined, automatic cars. We're looking at electric for her next.

[mangocrazy]

On a personal level, I could see myself driving an EV as long as range and speed of charge is at the same level as an ICE vehicle. I tend to regard a car as a tool to do a job and as long as the car does the job reliably and efficiently I'd be fine with it. If I want fun, character and excitement I have motorbikes for that. But the cost of entry is a barrier (I've never bought a new car in my life) as is range anxiety and charging concerns.

I'm ready to be convinced, but I'm nowhere near that at present.

[Slenver]

On a personal level, I could see myself driving an EV as long as range and speed of charge is at the same level as an ICE vehicle. I tend to regard a car as a tool to do a job and as long as the car does the job reliably and efficiently I'd be fine with it. If I want fun, character and excitement I have motorbikes for that. But the cost of entry is a barrier (I've never bought a new car in my life) as is range anxiety and charging concerns.

I'm ready to be convinced, but I'm nowhere near that at present.

I think the cost of entry has been a big factor in that it used to be that you had to buy new and many people, both you and I included, don't want to do that.

But this is just a time factor and will inexorably improve as time moves on. Even now, there are 20,000 EVs for sale on Autotrader, starting at £3k. Still not the same choice as for ICE of course, but the difference is diminishing fast.

[Couchy]

On a personal level, I could see myself driving an EV as long as range and speed of charge is at the same level as an ICE vehicle. I tend to regard a car as a tool to do a job and as long as the car does the job reliably and efficiently I'd be fine with it. If I want fun, character and excitement I have motorbikes for that. But the cost of entry is a barrier (I've never bought a new car in my life) as is range anxiety and charging concerns.

I'm ready to be convinced, but I'm nowhere near that at present.

I think the cost of entry has been a big factor in that it used to be that you had to buy new and many people, both you and I included, don't want to do that.

But this is just a time factor and will inexorably improve as time moves on. Even now, there are 20,000 EVs for sale on Autotrader, starting at £3k. Still not the same choice as for ICE of course, but the difference is diminishing fast.

I've had another look to see what can replace my 7 year old e class estate, I need an estate to carry the mountain bike and my car cost me £14k. It's got an easy 5-10 years life left yet and probably more as I only do 7k miles a year in it. Fuel costs me around £85 a month. Tax is £135 a year. Servicing and tyres add another £400. So running costs are around £1500 a year. Looking at EV's I can't find one as big as the E class but if I take say a Skoda Enyaq which will do the job then road tax also has luxury tax on from next year so that's £500+. I know one person with one and they needed a pair of front tyres at 7k miles and they cost £560. Going on their range and having a low charging tariff at home electric will cost me £15 a month. That's a big saving, but still total cost is £1200 ish plus a service and doesn't allow for any charging in the public domain which would be needed. Being generous running costs for 7k miles could be similar.
None of this takes into account buying or leasing, a £14k loan will cost me £15200 over 3 years. At the end I'll have a car worth £7k. Total cost for 3 years £12700/£352 a month
The enyaq on a 3 year lease £4200 down and £430 a month and hand the car back, total cost for 3 years is £23280/£646 a month.

Obviously I'm comparing an older car vs a new one but if I replace the e class with a reliable older petrol toyota the figures are even more in favour of the petrol car. I just don't see any world I live in where £600+ a month on a car is acceptable even if I can afford it. Guess there's many that think it is ok though.

[Slenver]

All that

I agree. It's definitely only a reasonable cost proposition for certain people/scenarios with specific needs.

I've only ever bought 2nd hand for cash, but my missus wants a new car and has a salary sacrifice scheme through work. For that situation it's more weighted towards an EV as she'll be spending 500/month on a brand new car either way with all costs aside from fuel built-in. The main factor is whether she wants an ICE that does 40mpg or an EV that does an equivalent 75mpg. May as well go electric.

I shan't be replacing my 911 any time soon though!

[Count Steer]

All that

I agree. It's definitely only a reasonable cost proposition for certain people/scenarios with specific needs.

I've only ever bought 2nd hand for cash, but my missus wants a new car and has a salary sacrifice scheme through work. For that situation it's more weighted towards an EV as she'll be spending 500/month on a brand new car either way with all costs aside from fuel built-in. The main factor is whether she wants an ICE that does 40mpg or an EV that does an equivalent 75mpg. May as well go electric.

I shan't be replacing my 911 any time soon though!

Or a hybrid that does 70mpg?

[Slenver]

Or a hybrid that does 70mpg?

Yep.

The crazy price of electricity has skewed the figures an awful lot of course, and minimised the advantage. The people I know with EVs tend to use nighttime tariffs which bring the rate down to about 7.5p. At that point you're talking 300+ mpg so well beyond hybrids. 75mpg was a fairly arbitrary figure tbh, and even at full rates of 30p would be typically more like 85 I think for many cars.

[Mr. Dazzle]

Although matey boy with the slightly too long commute is presumably getting infinity mpg - or at least, will be when he can charge at work for free

We - the electric car company - don't have charging at work. Some kind of irony in that we're using up every single scrap of electricity we can get our hands on to build electric motors

[Kneerly Down]

But this is just a time factor and will inexorably improve as time moves on. Even now, there are 20,000 EVs for sale on Autotrader, starting at £3k.

Starting at £3k...Nissan Leaf with 40 miles of battery range remaining.

[Count Steer]

But this is just a time factor and will inexorably improve as time moves on. Even now, there are 20,000 EVs for sale on Autotrader, starting at £3k.

Starting at £3k...Nissan Leaf with 40 miles of battery range remaining.

Is that a 2010 model? A ~£30k car down to £3k (at current prices) in 13 years seems a bit 40 miles (in winter?) is bordering on useless though so £3k actually seems pricey.

PS @Slenver at £500/month is saving a few p on running cost really an issue?

[Cousin Jack]

I have a hybrid, all paid for and 7 years old. Based on my last Lexus it should be good for 20 years, and still be reliable, even if cosmetically it may have a few scars. The worry is that the last one was ICE only, I am not certain the battery in the hybrid will last 20 years

When the 2030 cut off was announced I vaguely planned to buy a new hybrid in about 2028, just to be sure I didn't miss the cut off. A Toyota electric with 700 mile range, and 10 minute recharge could change that, that sort of range and recharge speed I can live with.

However by 2030 I will be 84 (assuming i haven't fallen off my perch), so maybe I should stick with what I have? Or buy a little electric something since I will only drive 5 miles to Tesco and I can top it up there? Or be really outrageous and buy a pure ICE toy like a Mazda MX5?

Decisions, decisions!