Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Bigjawa]

Putin doesn't strike me as the negotiating type, especially when a former ally, in the loosest sense of the word, has turned on him it also appears that the Wagner tefal heads have managed to get pro Wagner propaganda out to the public in Russia who have been in the dark for the most part.

It'll be interesting to see how the next 24 hours pan out.

[Bigyin]

Putin will be eager to stamp this out as quickly as possible either by assassinating Prigozhin or negotiating behind the scenes with him some sort of reward that leaves Putin in charge and gets the Wagner lot back "on message" with the motherland

And as if by magic Wagner have just announced they will be returning to barracks to avoid a direct “spilling of Russian blood” if the convoy gets to Moscow. The result of some alleged negotiations by Belarus president as Putin and Prigozhin don’t/won’t speak to each other

[irie]

Putin will be eager to stamp this out as quickly as possible either by assassinating Prigozhin or negotiating behind the scenes with him some sort of reward that leaves Putin in charge and gets the Wagner lot back "on message" with the motherland

And as if by magic Wagner have just announced they will be returning to barracks to avoid a direct “spilling of Russian blood” if the convoy gets to Moscow. The result of some alleged negotiations by Belarus president as Putin and Prigozhin don’t/won’t speak to each other

Wonder what deal was struck to cause this about-face?

[demographic]

Looke like Putin has offered more money then eh?

[Count Steer]

Looke like Putin has offered more money then eh?

Probably have to start by giving back the £37m (equivalent) they're supposed to have seized from the Wagner office in St Petersburg. That's quite a big petty cash box.

Not exactly likely that there's going to be much trust between them going forward eh?

[Horse]

Putin will be eager to stamp this out as quickly as possible either by assassinating Prigozhin or negotiating behind the scenes with him some sort of reward that leaves Putin in charge and gets the Wagner lot back "on message" with the motherland

And as if by magic Wagner have just announced they will be returning to barracks to avoid a direct “spilling of Russian blood” if the convoy gets to Moscow. The result of some alleged negotiations by Belarus president as Putin and Prigozhin don’t/won’t speak to each other

Wonder what deal was struck to cause this about-face?

Breaking:
The head of the Wagner group will leave for Belarus and charges against his mercenaries will be dropped following their rebellion, Russian state media says

[mangocrazy]

This country ain't big enough for both of us...

I anticipate that 'he who cannot be named because it's too much faff' will suffer an unfortunate fall from a 5th story window in the short to medium term.

[demographic]

Looke like Putin has offered more money then eh?

Probably have to start by giving back the £37m (equivalent) they're supposed to have seized from the Wagner office in St Petersburg. That's quite a big petty cash box.

Not exactly likely that there's going to be much trust between them going forward eh?

Looks like Putins had his wings clipped a bit then?
Interesting times anyway.

[Yambo]

Lukashenko's a fool.

Prigozhin probably thinks "I can 'ave 'im, nukes an' all!"

[Mussels]

I'm wondering if Prigozhin is going to be a sleeper in Belarus. Lukashenka is only holding on to power due to Putin's support and Russia has a plan to annex Belarus as well, but there's resistance and an armed uprising there wouldn't be a shock.

[Bigyin]

I'm wondering if Prigozhin is going to be a sleeper in Belarus. Lukashenka is only holding on to power due to Putin's support and Russia has a plan to annex Belarus as well, but there's resistance and an armed uprising there wouldn't be a shock.

Or the supposed exile (as prigozhin doesn’t strike me as a man to meekly go where he is told) is a discreet way of positioning the Wagner battalion in Belarus right onto the fairly weak Ukrainian northern border while they are conducting a counter offensive in the south east. Putin can then deploy them along with some Belarus forces intermingled with Wagner and attack on both Southern and Northern fronts at the same time. I doubt Ukraine has the resources to fight on all fronts simultaneously

[Yambo]

I'm wondering if Prigozhin is going to be a sleeper in Belarus. Lukashenka is only holding on to power due to Putin's support and Russia has a plan to annex Belarus as well, but there's resistance and an armed uprising there wouldn't be a shock.

Or the supposed exile (as prigozhin doesn’t strike me as a man to meekly go where he is told) is a discreet way of positioning the Wagner battalion in Belarus right onto the fairly weak Ukrainian northern border while they are conducting a counter offensive in the south east. Putin can then deploy them along with some Belarus forces intermingled with Wagner and attack on both Southern and Northern fronts at the same time. I doubt Ukraine has the resources to fight on all fronts simultaneously

It does all seem to be a bit of a charade, doesn't it, unless Prigozhin has a 7th floor hotel room booked for him.

[Bigyin]

It does all seem to be a bit of a charade, doesn't it, unless Prigozhin has a 7th floor hotel room booked for him.

Some things about the weekends goings on in Russia just don’t seem to make any sense. The statement issued by Wagner saying that the convoy will return to barracks to avoid the spilling of Russian blood on either side. This statement made shortly after Wagner shot down 3 KA52 attack helicopters with the loss of all crews and also an IL22 command and control aircraft with at least 10 crew on board.

At the weekend all charges were being dropped yet today Russian media state the investigation into the acts of treason is continuing

Weird and mixed messages

[Count Steer]

It does all seem to be a bit of a charade, doesn't it, unless Prigozhin has a 7th floor hotel room booked for him.

Some things about the weekends goings on in Russia just don’t seem to make any sense. The statement issued by Wagner saying that the convoy will return to barracks to avoid the spilling of Russian blood on either side. This statement made shortly after Wagner shot down 3 KA52 attack helicopters with the loss of all crews and also an IL22 command and control aircraft with at least 10 crew on board.

At the weekend all charges were being dropped yet today Russian media state the investigation into the acts of treason is continuing

Weird and mixed messages

It's all a bit bizarre. I can see why Lukashenko would want Wagner onside (and also why you might not want them anywhere near). More of the necessary muscle to keep control/in power, but it's a bit 'dine with the devil'.

Wonder if Putin might be tempted to fetch his nuke warheads back? Not convinced he'll be happy with Prighozin being that close to them.

Interesting logistics too if all the Wagner hardware tries to relocate. Could be an interesting journey.

[Hoonercat]

If we're doing theories...
A country with a large number of very rich and very nervous oligarchs who, thanks to Putin, are seeing their assets, money and life expectancy dissolving. A mercenary warlord who was about to see his European business model and private army nationalised. A lot of background chatter about political movements in the shadows as the regional elections approach. And Putin, perceived to be a strong leader, is left looking anything but.
And then there's Lukashenko, who's relationship with Yeltsin at least had the appearance of some equality, reduced to a puppet under Putin's rule and, if those leaked documents are genuine, destined to lose power by 2030 when Russia swallows up Belarus.
There's a lot of powerful people around Putin who could gain an awful lot from his political downfall. Showing him to be weak would go a long way to achieving that.

[Horse]

20230626_190749.jpg (192.53 KiB) Viewed 651 times

[Mussels]

Here we go, Prigozhin and Wagner's new base. Putin wouldn't have said this without a plan.

Putin accused rebelling Wagner fighters of treason and — without mentioning their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin by name — offered them to either sign contracts with the army or leave for neighboring Belarus.

[Horse]

BBC Russian has been tracking which Russian aircraft were downed in the mutiny over the weekend.

Using open sourcing, it says that this includes three Mi-8 MTPR Electronic Warfare helicopters, two attack helicopters – a Ka-52 and Mi-35 – one military transport Mi-8, as well as one Il-22M command plane.

It also says that, according to Conflict Intelligence Team, an open source organisation with a focus on Russia, it’s possible that another Mi-8 MTPR helicopter was shot down near Luhansk on June 23, although there are no further details of this incident.

It’s currently unclear how many crew members died, BBC Russian says.

Of the aircraft lost, the most valuable is the Il-22M, BBC Russian says, an airborne command post from which troops can be controlled during combat operations.

[Mr Moofo]

If we're doing theories...
A country with a large number of very rich and very nervous oligarchs who, thanks to Putin, are seeing their assets, money and life expectancy dissolving. A mercenary warlord who was about to see his European business model and private army nationalised. A lot of background chatter about political movements in the shadows as the regional elections approach. And Putin, perceived to be a strong leader, is left looking anything but.
And then there's Lukashenko, who's relationship with Yeltsin at least had the appearance of some equality, reduced to a puppet under Putin's rule and, if those leaked documents are genuine, destined to lose power by 2030 when Russia swallows up Belarus.
There's a lot of powerful people around Putin who could gain an awful lot from his political downfall. Showing him to be weak would go a long way to achieving that.

I thought it was more likely to be an American sponsored event that fell apart at the seams as soon as it got going.
They've got plenty of form for toppling leaders and putting some corrupt nutcase in his place, and then wondering what to do next because they haven't thought that far.

I'm far from convince that Mr Wagner would have signed his own death warrant - and most of his family's, by toadying to the CIA. And if he had, he would have never called it off - he would have known the end game / taken precautions.

And I doubt that the USA would really want someone who is worse than Putin in charge of nuclear weapons

[Bigjawa]

BBC Russian has been tracking which Russian aircraft were downed in the mutiny over the weekend.

Using open sourcing, it says that this includes three Mi-8 MTPR Electronic Warfare helicopters, two attack helicopters – a Ka-52 and Mi-35 – one military transport Mi-8, as well as one Il-22M command plane.

It also says that, according to Conflict Intelligence Team, an open source organisation with a focus on Russia, it’s possible that another Mi-8 MTPR helicopter was shot down near Luhansk on June 23, although there are no further details of this incident.

It’s currently unclear how many crew members died, BBC Russian says.

Of the aircraft lost, the most valuable is the Il-22M, BBC Russian says, an airborne command post from which troops can be controlled during combat operations.

That IL-22 is roughly the equivalent of a 1960s Vickers Viscount and Mil-8s are just a Russian Puma, it wouldn't take much to knock them down, the Kamov and the Hind would take more, but something like a Stinger would deal with them easily. I imagine Wagner don't exclusively use Russian weapons.