Here we go again...

[Mr. Dazzle]

Few interesting things pop out there...

The co-authors mentioned (not sure if that's all of the authors) are economics or politics types, not Drs.

They also suggest face coverings are pretty effective in comparison. "While business closures were associated with a 7.5 per cent fall in Covid mortality, gathering limits – such as “the rule of six” – were linked to an increase in Covid death rates of 5.9 per cent. Other interventions, such as the use of face coverings, which were not pushed in Britain until the end of the first wave, were found to be “relatively effective” where they were used, cutting deaths by 18.7 per cent..

Maybe Swedes are just naturally more conscientious? “Our meta-analysis suggests that when researchers account for additional variables, such as voluntary behaviour, the impact of lockdowns becomes negligible.”.

And at the end of it all, their own conclusions seem pretty cop-out-ish. "Distinguishing the relative effectiveness of mandates versus government recommendations – while clearly of political interest – is even more challenging, given the large between- (and even within-) country differences in population responses to both types of measures.”.

This is a "meh" on the revelation-omiter for me Bit late now!

[Mr Moofo]

Uni of Lund seem to think lockdown was a load of wank too.....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... udy-finds/

Benefit of hindsight and all that. But the lockdown had nothing to do with saving people in the UK - it had everything to do with the fact that the NHS couldn't cope.
The cost of the (global) lockdown was always going to be more detrimental to society - and there is going to be a huge death rate because of mental health and untreated cancers,
Unfortunately those who died generally were in poor health/ obese / going to die anyway - I doubt lockdown saved more than few 100 people and may , in fact, have cause the death of far more ( and will continue to do so)

The investigation will yield nothing, other than make those involved more money - an boy, there were snouts in the trough

[Ant]

Yep, an example I know of is my great grandma in law, she was on her own, due to lock down, she drunk herself to death from loneliness, where usually she'd see loads of people otherwise.

Lockdown? Yet we were all in Tesco etc together, it was a fakedown.

[Mr Moofo]

I wonder how all of this will change the governments approach when the "big one" hits

The virus was very real, the mortality rate of it was very real - but I am not sure lockdown was ever going to be the answer. Allowing the virus to mutate into the less virulent form ( as they do) may have been a better plan (with hindsight)

[Ant]

And Sweeden proved that, no lockdowns and less issues.

[irie]

...
I doubt lockdown saved more than few 100 people and may , in fact, have cause the death of far more ( and will continue to do so)
...

I clearly recall seeing two graphs presented on television, the first showing high peak demand on the NHS, and the second showing suppressed but elongated peak demand. I pointed out to my (medical wife) that the aggregate areas under the curves meant that the suppressed but elongated curve would therefore increase total mortalities..

Covid has hastened the demise of the already dysfunctional NHS.

[Mussels]

And Sweeden proved that, no lockdowns and less issues.

It was a while back and memory is a little fuzzy but wasnt there a lot of self imposed lockdown going on so not dissimilar to other countries anyway?

[Mr. Dazzle]

That's what popped out to me too.

What actually matters of course is how much people were out and mixing, washing their hands and so on, not whether their actions were externally forced. Maybe Swedes are just differently behaved in that area?

[irie]

Uni of Lund seem to think lockdown was a load of wank too.....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... udy-finds/

Benefit of hindsight and all that. But the lockdown had nothing to do with saving people in the UK - it had everything to do with the fact that the NHS couldn't cope.
The cost of the (global) lockdown was always going to be more detrimental to society - and there is going to be a huge death rate because of mental health and untreated cancers,
Unfortunately those who died generally were in poor health/ obese / going to die anyway - I doubt lockdown saved more than few 100 people and may , in fact, have cause the death of far more ( and will continue to do so)

The investigation will yield nothing, other than make those involved more money - an boy, there were snouts in the trough

Hopefully investigations will yield a positive result - namely that if similar events occur in the future "lockdowns" will NOT be implemented.

For example, closing down schools was always going to be a disaster, and the impact has been even worse than the forecast worst case outcome scenarios.

[irie]

That's what popped out to me too.

What actually matters of course is how much people were out and mixing, washing their hands and so on, not whether their actions were externally forced. Maybe Swedes are just differently behaved in that area?

Given the fear of illness and possible death the behaviour of the majority of the UK population would almost certainly have followed a similar pattern.

Covid is an airborne disease btw.

[Jody]

TBF I can forgive 'them' if they lockdowns they imposed turned out to be excessive. Hindsight is wonderful!

I can't forgive them for partying
I can't forgive them for using covid as a tool to give Billions to their chums

Also I really hate that it took a year for the partygate photos to be published. It's another clear sign that our government is run by sneaky fuckers. Honest people would have published the photos right away, not waited until it suited their own career.

[Ant]

A slice of cake at work, with people you work with, I won't hold a grudge over that.

[cheb]

Blatant shit stirring question, mainly as those with 20/10 hindsight could help the world so much it'd be a shame not to give them the chance to shape the future.

To all those who railed at the government for not being prepared for the Covid pandemic please tell me exactly what the next major problem will be and what the government should be stockpiling now for it. Not just the for the current torries, your wisdom could be used by the next lot who will lead us out the darkness. I don't want vagueness, I want exactly what items they should have, how many, and how they should be sourced, stored and distributed. Financing need not be a problem as a small amount paid out now will save us from much greater spending later, a stitch in time and all that. Time scales too, and preferable more accurate than Nostradamus or the Brahan Seer.

It can't be that difficult, just because a bunch of corrupt politicoes and their advisors couldn't get it right shouldn't stop anyone with no cronies to sub and who has access to the all the information on the internet should come up with the obviously correct answer.

[Horse]

I reckon Boris thought lockdown was about as much a load of bollocks as many people do now, but all those open letters from nurses and whining from the media

Was there really type of a fuss before LD1? At that point (IIRC mid-March for the 'WfH if you can), people knew very little about it.

[Mr Moofo]

Blatant shit stirring question, mainly as those with 20/10 hindsight could help the world so much it'd be a shame not to give them the chance to shape the future.

To all those who railed at the government for not being prepared for the Covid pandemic please tell me exactly what the next major problem will be and what the government should be stockpiling now for it. Not just the for the current torries, your wisdom could be used by the next lot who will lead us out the darkness. I don't want vagueness, I want exactly what items they should have, how many, and how they should be sourced, stored and distributed. Financing need not be a problem as a small amount paid out now will save us from much greater spending later, a stitch in time and all that. Time scales too, and preferable more accurate than Nostradamus or the Brahan Seer.

It can't be that difficult, just because a bunch of corrupt politicoes and their advisors couldn't get it right shouldn't stop anyone with no cronies to sub and who has access to the all the information on the internet should come up with the obviously correct answer.

I guess that the whole pandemic made the government (this or the next one) think seriously about the financial, medical and social implications of any future "plan". Furlough was a great idea - until people worked out it was free money.

[Count Steer]

Blatant shit stirring question, mainly as those with 20/10 hindsight could help the world so much it'd be a shame not to give them the chance to shape the future.

To all those who railed at the government for not being prepared for the Covid pandemic please tell me exactly what the next major problem will be and what the government should be stockpiling now for it. Not just the for the current torries, your wisdom could be used by the next lot who will lead us out the darkness. I don't want vagueness, I want exactly what items they should have, how many, and how they should be sourced, stored and distributed. Financing need not be a problem as a small amount paid out now will save us from much greater spending later, a stitch in time and all that. Time scales too, and preferable more accurate than Nostradamus or the Brahan Seer.

If I can get my hands on an unredacted copy of the output from 'Exercise Alice' from 2016 I'll get back to you on how to prepare for a coronovirus pandemic.

[Greenman]

Blatant shit stirring question, mainly as those with 20/10 hindsight could help the world so much it'd be a shame not to give them the chance to shape the future.

To all those who railed at the government for not being prepared for the Covid pandemic please tell me exactly what the next major problem will be and what the government should be stockpiling now for it. Not just the for the current torries, your wisdom could be used by the next lot who will lead us out the darkness. I don't want vagueness, I want exactly what items they should have, how many, and how they should be sourced, stored and distributed. Financing need not be a problem as a small amount paid out now will save us from much greater spending later, a stitch in time and all that. Time scales too, and preferable more accurate than Nostradamus or the Brahan Seer.

It can't be that difficult, just because a bunch of corrupt politicoes and their advisors couldn't get it right shouldn't stop anyone with no cronies to sub and who has access to the all the information on the internet should come up with the obviously correct answer.

I guess that the whole pandemic made the government (this or the next one) think seriously about the financial, medical and social implications of any future "plan". Furlough was a great idea - until people worked out it was free money.

Appoint people that can do the job?

Your question is a bit silly, it's like asking a chef how to install a new server farm over in Iceland, he would not have much of an idea as that is not what he is trained to do or advise on, just like me and you are not trained to advise on how to deal with pandemics.

People are appointed by the state to do the job they have been trained to do, it's not up to us to make any decisions for them, we need to have trust that the people that are appointed by the state to run our country have the backgrounds and knowledge to make sure the job is done to the best degree possible and that the interest of the people is at the forefront of their decisions, this is where the process is failing.

Most of my anti establishment opinions are to do with this very point rather than myself actually knowing the resolution to all the problems. Appoint the correct candidates and we then might get solutions that best suit the country as a whole, continue to appoint the candidates we have been and we just get shit that will go on and on and on to infinity just like they want it to...

[weeksy]

How do you appoint a pandemic expert if you've not had a global pandemic before?

[Mr Moofo]

How do you appoint a pandemic expert if you've not had a global pandemic before?

Kind of true - but big organisations should "scenario plan"
The richest people in the world certainly will have bolt holes and exit plans should something happen.

But now we have had a pandemic (and there was Spanish Flu in the past) it is time that government(s) put things in place - they kind of had the top out excuse before. Now they don't.
Like a health system that can actually cope and isn't more concerned with painting rainbow flags on windows and advising autistic kids to have gender re-assignment.
And that would be the only "success" to come out of the inquiry ...

[Count Steer]

If I can get my hands on an unredacted copy of the output from 'Exercise Alice' from 2016 I'll get back to you on how to prepare for a coronovirus pandemic.

I've been in some COBRA stuff and it generally wasn't bad, but it's like Mike Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan until they get a smack in the mouth".

Most of the biggest critics of the government have never been in charge of anything even moderately big in size, as soon as you have 10k+ people to worry about it's always going to be a bit of a best guess muddle.
The NHS has always been a shit show, so that doesn't really count, they've never had competent management, so I wasn't surprised.

The bits I'm critical of with the PM were basic management skills of his direct reports and the comms with the BoE, which by mid-2021 had both gone to shit and I voiced my opinions at the time.

My point about Exercise Alice was really that Matt Hancock stood up and said basically 'We're winging it here, the planning was for an influenza, so we're actually doing marvellously'. It wasn't until 2021 that they admitted that the exercise had taken place in 2016 and allowed a redacted version out into the wild. Even that showed that some major recommendations were ignored. I understand that you can't act on every modelling exercise but to claim it was a surprise and that's why the PPE stocks were wrong (and out of date in some cases with some pretty back of the fag packet ideas on how to distribute it) was, at best, economical with the truth. (They've modelled other stuff like ebola too, a coronavirus was just one of the exercises).

The next pandemic won't be a surprise either....but what sort will it be? Probably another animal mutated thing, I'd guess a flu type but we're pretty good at those, they happen every year.