Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

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Will Russia invade the Ukraine

Yes
20
49%
No
12
29%
Maybe
9
22%
 
Total votes: 41

Hoonercat
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

Mussels wrote: Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:35 pm I think Ukraine probably knows plenty about recovering damaged tanks.
At each step it looks like the Ukrainian army has used donated weapons effectively, I doubt they will be careless with these.
Getting a 75 ton Challenger or 60+ ton Leopard on the same recovery vehicle that's designed to transport a 45 ton Soviet tank may pose something of a problem. Even farmer Nickolai may struggle with his tractor :D
As the Leopard was improved over time its weight increased so much that Germany had to develop a new transporter capable of moving them over distance (the SLT-2 Mammut). Ukraine won't have anything that can match this unless the donor countries supply them, but AFAIK they're in short supply. Maybe less of an issue if the supplied Leopards are the older versions but they are still heavier than the Soviet tanks Ukraine uses. They are also wider than Soviet tanks so may not be suitable for transportation on Soviet era railways.
No doubt these tanks will be devastating when used in combat, but they could be a logistical nightmare for an already overstretched Ukraine army, given the amount of support they will need including mobile SAM launchers.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Supermofo »

From what I've read/seen the Challengers will make chuff all difference other than symbolically as they'll be a logistical nightmare for the Ukrainians to use.

The Leopards in numbers might make a difference but they'll need to be used in the right way and things like bridges and mud become an issue. But last I saw the Germans are saying these won't be ready until 2024 anyway.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Supermofo wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:23 pm The Leopards in numbers might make a difference but they'll need to be used in the right way and things like bridges and mud become an issue. But last I saw the Germans are saying these won't be ready until 2024 anyway.
It's repaired Leopards which won't be ready until 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/re ... 023-01-15/

Other than the above tanks requiring repair by Rheinmetall, Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks which it says it needs for its own defence. Defence against exactly who is a 'bit of a puzzle' ...
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by JackyJoll »

irie wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:56 pm Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks which it says it needs for its own defence. Defence against exactly who is a 'bit of a puzzle' ...
Brave little Belgium.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Count Steer »

irie wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:56 pm
Supermofo wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:23 pm The Leopards in numbers might make a difference but they'll need to be used in the right way and things like bridges and mud become an issue. But last I saw the Germans are saying these won't be ready until 2024 anyway.
It's repaired Leopards which won't be ready until 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/re ... 023-01-15/

Other than the above tanks requiring repair by Rheinmetall, Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks which it says it needs for its own defence. Defence against exactly who is a 'bit of a puzzle' ...
Given they had 4000 at the height of the cold war and that's hotted up a bit, they might feel they need to hang on to them. Stopping Poland providing some of theirs is a different matter, particularly since Poland want to replace them with American Abrams and South Korean K2s.........
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/secur ... ng-testify

According to Gulagu.net, this is the first time a former head of a small patrol group of from one of the units of Wagner private military company (pmc) had fled Russia for Europe. He is willing to testify against the oligarch and Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Count Steer wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:10 pm
irie wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:56 pm
Supermofo wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:23 pm The Leopards in numbers might make a difference but they'll need to be used in the right way and things like bridges and mud become an issue. But last I saw the Germans are saying these won't be ready until 2024 anyway.
It's repaired Leopards which won't be ready until 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/re ... 023-01-15/

Other than the above tanks requiring repair by Rheinmetall, Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks which it says it needs for its own defence. Defence against exactly who is a 'bit of a puzzle' ...
Given they had 4000 at the height of the cold war and that's hotted up a bit, they might feel they need to hang on to them. Stopping Poland providing some of theirs is a different matter, particularly since Poland want to replace them with American Abrams and South Korean K2s.........
Germany no longer has a malevolent USSR controlled state on it's Eastern border. Poland is now on its Eastern border, the world has changed in the last 30+ years ...
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

irie wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:56 pm
Supermofo wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:23 pm The Leopards in numbers might make a difference but they'll need to be used in the right way and things like bridges and mud become an issue. But last I saw the Germans are saying these won't be ready until 2024 anyway.
It's repaired Leopards which won't be ready until 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/re ... 023-01-15/

Other than the above tanks requiring repair by Rheinmetall, Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks which it says it needs for its own defence. Defence against exactly who is a 'bit of a puzzle' ...
The variant being sent to Ukraine is the older Leopard 2 A4. All of Germany's A4's are in storage, therefore need to be made battle-ready before being deployed.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Hoonercat wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:15 pm
irie wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:56 pm
Supermofo wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:23 pm The Leopards in numbers might make a difference but they'll need to be used in the right way and things like bridges and mud become an issue. But last I saw the Germans are saying these won't be ready until 2024 anyway.
It's repaired Leopards which won't be ready until 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/re ... 023-01-15/

Other than the above tanks requiring repair by Rheinmetall, Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks which it says it needs for its own defence. Defence against exactly who is a 'bit of a puzzle' ...
The variant being sent to Ukraine is the older Leopard 2 A4. All of Germany's A4's are in storage, therefore need to be made battle-ready before being deployed.
"being sent"? I am not aware that Germany has as yet formally agreed to send any of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine ...
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

It's wonderful to be perfect. Fact :)
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

irie wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 5:10 pm
Hoonercat wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:15 pm
irie wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:56 pm

It's repaired Leopards which won't be ready until 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/re ... 023-01-15/

Other than the above tanks requiring repair by Rheinmetall, Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks which it says it needs for its own defence. Defence against exactly who is a 'bit of a puzzle' ...
The variant being sent to Ukraine is the older Leopard 2 A4. All of Germany's A4's are in storage, therefore need to be made battle-ready before being deployed.
"being sent"? I am not aware that Germany has as yet formally agreed to send any of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine ...
I'm referring to Poland and Finland who have both indicated that they intend to send A4's (along with Spain, who pulled out because their stored A4's were beyond financial repair). Point being, there has to be uniformity in the variant being sent, and should Germany agree to join the 'coalition', its only A4's are in storage and in need of repair. Germnay is also obligated to send A4's to the Czech Republic under the backfill agreement.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Hoonercat wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:38 pm
irie wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 5:10 pm
Hoonercat wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:15 pm
The variant being sent to Ukraine is the older Leopard 2 A4. All of Germany's A4's are in storage, therefore need to be made battle-ready before being deployed.
"being sent"? I am not aware that Germany has as yet formally agreed to send any of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine ...
I'm referring to Poland and Finland who have both indicated that they intend to send A4's (along with Spain, who pulled out because their stored A4's were beyond financial repair). Point being, there has to be uniformity in the variant being sent, and should Germany agree to join the 'coalition', its only A4's are in storage and in need of repair. Germnay is also obligated to send A4's to the Czech Republic under the backfill agreement.
So they are not "being sent" after all. :roll:

My mistake taking you off 'ignore'. Rectified.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

irie wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:53 am
Count Steer wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:10 pm
irie wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:56 pm

It's repaired Leopards which won't be ready until 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/re ... 023-01-15/

Other than the above tanks requiring repair by Rheinmetall, Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks which it says it needs for its own defence. Defence against exactly who is a 'bit of a puzzle' ...
Given they had 4000 at the height of the cold war and that's hotted up a bit, they might feel they need to hang on to them. Stopping Poland providing some of theirs is a different matter, particularly since Poland want to replace them with American Abrams and South Korean K2s.........
Germany no longer has a malevolent USSR controlled state on it's Eastern border. Poland is now on its Eastern border, the world has changed in the last 30+ years ...
As is Czechia, with its huge armed forces of 29,000, then Slovakia with an even less impressive 13,000 while bordering Ukraine, which will soon be hosting an extra few hundred thousand Russian soldiers...
10.5 hour drive from the Slovak/Ukraine border to Dresden in Germany, which might explain why they're keen to hang on to their tanks.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

irie wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:05 pm
Hoonercat wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:38 pm
irie wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 5:10 pm

"being sent"? I am not aware that Germany has as yet formally agreed to send any of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine ...
I'm referring to Poland and Finland who have both indicated that they intend to send A4's (along with Spain, who pulled out because their stored A4's were beyond financial repair). Point being, there has to be uniformity in the variant being sent, and should Germany agree to join the 'coalition', its only A4's are in storage and in need of repair. Germnay is also obligated to send A4's to the Czech Republic under the backfill agreement.
So they are not "being sent" after all. :roll:

My mistake taking you off 'ignore'. Rectified.
Good man, top bit of dickheadmanship :thumbup: You're unaware that currently, only the A4 variant is on the table, I enlighten you, and you pick up on something different and pull out the ignore card :D
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

Hoonercat wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:36 pm
irie wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:05 pm
Hoonercat wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:38 pm

I'm referring to Poland and Finland who have both indicated that they intend to send A4's (along with Spain, who pulled out because their stored A4's were beyond financial repair). Point being, there has to be uniformity in the variant being sent, and should Germany agree to join the 'coalition', its only A4's are in storage and in need of repair. Germnay is also obligated to send A4's to the Czech Republic under the backfill agreement.
So they are not "being sent" after all. :roll:

My mistake taking you off 'ignore'. Rectified.
Good man, top bit of dickheadmanship :thumbup: You're unaware that currently, only the A4 variant is on the table, I enlighten you, and you pick up on something different and pull out the ignore card :D
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Fascinating story ...

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plu ... ttete.html
Bulgaria was known for its stance against supplying arms to Ukraine. But research by WELT reveals that Sofia massively supported Kyiv with ammunition and diesel during crucial months of the war. Exclusive insight into a covert strategy - and unparalleled bravery.
https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgari ... u-ukraine/
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by cheb »

I though the A4 was self delivering but the Allies had most of them away at the end of WW2.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Things could get 'tricky' for Germany at the Nato meeting at the US Ramstein Air Base tomorrow. Fly on the wall and all that.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/po ... 023-01-19/
WARSAW, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Poland's prime minister signalled that it could send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as part of a wider coalition even without Germany's re-export approval, raising pressure on Berlin ahead of a crunch meeting of allies on more military aid for Kyiv.
...
"Consent is of secondary importance here, we will either obtain this consent quickly, or we will do what is needed ourselves," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told private broadcaster Polsat News late on Wednesday.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

Germany have already indicated that they will not stop any country sending Leopards, but say they haven't had any official requests. Not surprising, given that no country wants to be seen as going it alone, plus sending a handful of Leopards is pointless. Despite Poland's bluster, if they were to make an official request which was accepted then the ball would be frmly in their court, no more excuses for not sending them. That may change today, as according to Lithuania, 'several countries' have now joined the coalition willing to send Leopards.
Very doubtful that Germany will send any of its Leopards, they've been clear that will only do that if the US does the same with their M1 tanks but the US don't appear to be willing to do so (again, understandable given the amount of training and logistical support they require). As I posted a few days ago, the US and Germany seem to think that lighter, mobile infantry-carrying vehicles are a better solution for counter attacks and the need to move Ukraine troops around the front lines, given their numerical disadvantage. The last package included MRAP infantry transport vehicles, Humvees and 50 Bradley fighting vehicles and today's package is expected to add another 60 Bradley's along with Strykers which are even lighter and more mobile.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Perhaps behind the scenes Germany wants something (such as LNG, or money) from the USA in exchange for agreeing to ship tanks to Ukraine?
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