Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Count Steer]

There's something delightfully ironic in the fact that Putin is so reliant on Wagner group mercenaries to 'de-nazify' the neighbours. (Nor that Progozhin, the owner of the Wagner group, is the most likely to be one of the biggest threats to Putin if the Ukraine escapade keeps failing or he starts to back off).

[Mr Moofo]

1) The Azov brigade doesn't actually mean Ukraine is Nazi - any more that Division Helvetica , who sit in bar in Hinwil CH, and then go the Canton Uri to parade on Swiss National Day , means Switzerland is Nazi. Mind you ,their wearing of T-Shirts that said "Hitler was Right" was a bit tiresome. Fortunately, it looks like most of them have never had sex, so the genes won't be being passed on.
Tbh Putin should also de-nazify Croatia whilst he is at it, Rostock in Germany , and of course the suburbs of Moscow / St Pete's.
2) The Azov were never a threat to Putin - but only a convenient excuse for him to invade and get the USSR back. He was either delusional or badly informed, as he expected the Ukraine to capitulate.
3) It is not the right wing factions in the Ukraine army that have raped, murdered, buried alive, civilians - but the Russians.
4) Let's also get Putin to get rid of the Neo-Nazis in Norway, Sweden, Italy, Spain ....

[Hoonercat]

Western European interpretation of Nazism is very different to Eastern Europeans. We tend to link it mainly to the Holocaust and its 6 million Jewish victims, while forgetting that 20 - 28 million Soviets (including Jewish Soviets) also died. The Soviets never considered it as one group suffering more than another. Prior to the fall of the USSR, the word 'Nazi' was rarely used, instead the Germans were described as fascists, intent on destroying the Soviet people regardless of whether they were were Jew or Slav. Over time the term 'Nazi' was used more widely but became synonymous with the persecution of the Russian people more so than the wider Soviet block.

UNTERMENSCHEN
Untermenschen was the Nazi term for inferior races. In the Nazi racial hierarchy, set forth by Hitler, Himmler and several crackpot racial theorists, such as Alfred Rosenberg, Jews were considered to be the lowest race, to be indiscriminately exterminated. After Jews, Slavs were considered the next lowest race; it was the duty of the Germanic peoples to conquer land on which Slavs lived and incorporate it into the Reich. Slavs were to be kept alive only insofar as they could provide manual labor in service to the German Reich; in Nazi racial theory the Slavic peoples were slowly to be worked to death.

Ukraine is a Slavic nation. The AZOV regiment was formed and funded by a Jewish Ukraine billionaire to fight against Russian separatists. It's not hard to work it out that despite a patch on their uniforms, they don't follow Nazi ideology.

[Screwdriver]

I inherited a copy of MK from a flat clearance. It is a very powerful object in its physical form with equally menacing graphics.

I started flicking through it to see what all the fuss was about. I was really expecting to see the obvious signs of madness etc. and reassure myself I do not subscribe to that ideology iyswim. There is the very obvious problem of persecution we can all agree is inhumane but I had to stop reading it when much of the rest of it actually seemed quite sensible!

But theory and practice rarely coexist in the real world when humans are involved. Communism for example is a great idea on paper but until we are all being run by an incorruptible A.I. we have to place absolute power in the hands of some other humans and trust they don't wield that authority for their own personal benefit.

[Ant]

Yeah those books are a good read, read them loads of times.

[Hoonercat]

Following the French announcement that it will send AMX-10 RC light tanks to Ukraine, Germany has said it will be supplying 40 Marder fighting vehicles while the US has included 50 Bradley fighting vehicles in its latest military aid package. Also lots of chatter coming from Poland about a coalition agreement to send Leopard 2 battle tanks. The announcements come as Russian forces continue to build up in Belarus once again.

[KungFooBob]

The radio news earlier was saying Russian are preparing to mobilise another half a million conscript troops after the Christmas ceasefire.

Can't see that going down very well in Russia after the fuss the original 300,000 caused.

[wheelnut]

The radio news earlier was saying Russian are preparing to mobilise another half a million conscript troops after the Christmas ceasefire.

Can't see that going down very well in Russia after the fuss the original 300,000 caused.

If they can find 500k to mobilise. They all seem to have legged it to Turkey.

[Mussels]

It seems a bit of a mess. Ukraine isn't bothered much by the threats of more conscripts or invasion from Belarus, they have fought the best quality Russian soldiers already and the border with Belarus is mostly impassable swamp with the few routes already well fortified.
The population of Belarus has recently tried to oust their president who hung in there with Russian help, if their army is ordered across the border then Russia could lose Belarus as well.
Putin is desperate and likely to try another big push even though he's set up to fail.

[irie]

Given the below news, if there is a Russian spring "big push" the Russian body count will be enormous.

https://www.army-technology.com/feature ... ussia-war/

Promise of armour and combined-arms training to Ukraine point to new phase in Russia war.

Three NATO members will each provide armed and armoured mobility to Ukraine, with a US battalion-level training package also due to begin soon.

The decision by the US, French, and German governments to supply the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), AMX 10RC wheel armoured reconnaissance vehicle, and Marder IFV respectively to Ukraine point towards Kyiv’s war against Russia moving towards a new phase in the first half of 2023, with a greater emphasis on mobile protected firepower.

[JackyJoll]

What you think of this one? I’m not sure if it belongs in “Humour” or not.

A Russian wife asked, "What's this special military operation our glorious leader keeps talking about?" Her husband replied, "It's a war to stop America and NATO." "Oh, right” she says “How's it going?"

“Well” he replied “so far we have lost over 20 generals, 80,000 troops killed, countless injured, 3000 tanks, 300 aircraft, hundreds of helicopters, countless armoured vehicles, artillery and trucks, our flagship along with other naval ships, our army is being defeated in most areas and we have had to resort to conscription to replace our losses”.

“Wow” replied the wife “what about America and NATO”?

“They haven’t turned up yet”

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

Given the below news, if there is a Russian spring "big push" the Russian body count will be enormous.

https://www.army-technology.com/feature ... ussia-war/

Promise of armour and combined-arms training to Ukraine point to new phase in Russia war.

Three NATO members will each provide armed and armoured mobility to Ukraine, with a US battalion-level training package also due to begin soon.

The decision by the US, French, and German governments to supply the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), AMX 10RC wheel armoured reconnaissance vehicle, and Marder IFV respectively to Ukraine point towards Kyiv’s war against Russia moving towards a new phase in the first half of 2023, with a greater emphasis on mobile protected firepower.

Giving them to Ukraine is cheaper than scrapping them

[irie]

With the removal of Surovikin after only 3 months in the job and the appointment of Gerasimov (effectively Chief of Staff), it looks like Putin is in the last chance saloon. Expect to see the supply of tanks (such as Chieftains and Leopards) to Ukraine to make sure that Ukraine rubs Gerasimov's nose in the dirt.

[Mussels]

It's all a bit strange now. A couple of days ago Wagner said they had taken a town called Soledar all on their own but the Russian military said they were there and still fighting for it, then yesterday the Russian military said they had taken the town. That his morning Wagner say they are still fighting for it. Are they fighting each other more than the Ukrainian army?

[irie]

Hopefully this will prompt Germany into supplying Leopard tanks to Ukraine (which is what it really wants) and open the floodgates for the supply of Leopards to Ukraine by other European countries.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/uk-to-se ... s-12786361

Britain will send a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine to help counter Russia's invasion "in the coming weeks", Downing Street says.

It marks the first time a Western country has pledged tanks to Kyiv.

Around 30 AS90s, which are large, self-propelled guns, operated by five gunners, will also be provided.

But perhaps Germany will have to appoint a new Defence minister before the present incompetent incumbent is removed or resigns.

https://www.politico.eu/article/christi ... -decision/

German defense chief reportedly set to quit ahead of key Ukraine tank decision

Lambrecht’s leadership style has come under fire, especially for failing to implement an increase in military spending pledged by Chancellor Scholz.

Following in Ursula Von der Leyen's inimitable footsteps ...

[Yambo]

I think that the Germans are hoping they'll be able to salvage a reasonable relationship with Putin when this is all over.

[Cousin Jack]

I think that the Germans are hoping they'll be able to salvage a reasonable relationship with Putin when this is all over.

When this is all over it is more than likely that Putin will be over too.

[Hoonercat]

I think the Germans, Americans and French are more realistic about the capabilities of these mammoth tanks on Ukraine battlefields, as well as the capability of the Ukraine armed forces to use them correctly and supply the much-needed support, which is why they've prefered to supply the lighter, mobile combat vehicles. As Turkey discovered, without the right support and tactics, these MBT's are very vulnerable to mobile forces. They're also going to be a logistical nightmare as most Soviet-era bridges in Ukraine aren't designed to take their weight and, unless the donor countries are also going to supply recovery vehicles capable of removing damaged tanks, once disabled they could be out of action permanently.
They'll make a decent job of defending positions but I can't see them being much use as an offensive tool, other than at a local level. And then there's all that Ukraine mud...

[Mussels]

I think Ukraine probably knows plenty about recovering damaged tanks.
At each step it looks like the Ukrainian army has used donated weapons effectively, I doubt they will be careless with these.

However the active armour on Russian tanks is probably very effective on rounds from British tanks, ours work differently to most NATO tanks and I suspect they are designed to compliment each other. On a technical level I find it interesting how missiles and shells often don't work how you expect them to, the Chieftain rounds are designed to send a shockwave through armour rather than just blow it up. This is all above my pay grade so I'll assume the army people know exactly what they are good for.

[Count Steer]

I think Ukraine probably knows plenty about recovering damaged tanks.
At each step it looks like the Ukrainian army has used donated weapons effectively, I doubt they will be careless with these.

However the active armour on Russian tanks is probably very effective on rounds from British tanks, ours work differently to most NATO tanks and I suspect they are designed to compliment each other. On a technical level I find it interesting how missiles and shells often don't work how you expect them to, the Chieftain rounds are designed to send a shockwave through armour rather than just blow it up. This is all above my pay grade so I'll assume the army people know exactly what they are good for.

Tank armour and anti-tank munitions are another fine exercise in the application of minds to protecting stuff/blowing stuff up/killing people. Everything from depleted uranium armour piercing, to two stage/tandem-charge shells to things that slap like high velocity bean bags on the outside to spall off interior armour and fill the inside with shrapnel.

I thought that the big battle tanks were pretty much relics or just used to scare civilians (Prague, Tianamen) but every time someone says the last great tank battle was....ie the 6 Day War...they have another ie Desert Storm.