Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Yambo]

Reports that Russia are saying they have completely withdrawn from Kherson and the bridge they used to get everyone out has now been destroyed.

I seem to remember the estimates of getting all their resources out of Kherson would take a lot longer than it has. Impressive logistics from the Russians! If that news is true. But you know what? I don't believe a word the Russians say.

Of course, if they haven't pulled everyone out, that destroyed bridge may well be pivotal., if, in a few weeks time they want to get everyone out . . .

I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians haven't fallen for this ruse. I'm sure US and British intelligence has given them a good idea of the situation.

[Hoonercat]

Russia, it seems, has completed its withdrawal of troops from Kherson.

In its daily update, the military said “At 05:00 Moscow time today, the redeployment of Russian units to the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River was completed.
"During the redeployment, not a single piece of military hardware or weaponry was left behind.
All Russian service personnel were moved across, there were no losses of men, hardware or materiel of the Russian forces group.“

Not quite how it has been described by Russian troops taking part in the withdrawal. A pro-Russian Telegram channel has been posting messages from Russian troops over the past few days, which tell of 'anarchy' and 'panic' as retreating troops came under a constant barrage of shelling from Ukraine artillery. They claimed that Ukraine forces had advanced far further than they publicly stated, that they had left behind most of their equipment while trying to escape, and that some units had been told to put on civilian clothes and escape any way they could.

There's a Russian regiment that posts videos on a Telegram channel called 'Thirteenth'. I've flicked through their posts over the past few months to verify that it is a legitimate unit and it's striking how much their bravado has diminished recently. In the past they've posted of heroic victories, how they are warriors fighting for the Motherland etc. They withdrew from Kherson in the past few days and posted a couple of vids. One vid explained how they had been asked by the admin to post live videos to give people back in Russia a morale boost. The reply was along the lines of "We can't, Russians would have heart attacks if they knew the real situation here". The poster then takes a swipe at the 'brilliant people' who tell him not to worry, Russia will reclaim Kherson. His reply is along the lines of "we will never retake Kerson as long as we continue to fight in the same way, we will lose Crimea'. In another video, he claims that Crimea is being fortified and seems to imply that this will be the next major defensive position.

[irie]

Suspect they've withdrawn all the troops they can and have left behind perhaps 4,000 (?) on the west bank.

[Ant]

So, Russia has now fired into NATO territory?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... lling-two/

[Greenman]

Bring on the Nudes...!



no hang on, the nukes!






No i defo mean the nudes...

[Yambo]

So, Russia has now fired into NATO territory?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... lling-two/

Just hearing about this now.

I suspect that this is just a good example of the poor state of Russian forces and weapons. They've been lobbing a lot of stuff at Ukraine today, presumably because Zelensky addressed the G20 meeting and I'm guessing that a couple of missiles went astray. It all looks like farmland, both sides of the border around there so it could be the Russians just bumping the table and spilling some NATO drinks but I suspect it's just shit shooting.

I don't think Putin is mad enough to deliberately allow it to happen. But then . . .

[irie]

So, Russia has now fired into NATO territory?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... lling-two/

Just hearing about this now.

I suspect that this is just a good example of the poor state of Russian forces and weapons. They've been lobbing a lot of stuff at Ukraine today, presumably because Zelensky addressed the G20 meeting and I'm guessing that a couple of missiles went astray. It all looks like farmland, both sides of the border around there so it could be the Russians just bumping the table and spilling some NATO drinks but I suspect it's just shit shooting.

I don't think Putin is mad enough to deliberately allow it to happen. But then . . .

. . . it's unlikely, but it could be that Putin wants to use a response from NATO as a pretext for a general mobilisation . . .

[Yambo]

So, Russia has now fired into NATO territory?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... lling-two/

Just hearing about this now.

I suspect that this is just a good example of the poor state of Russian forces and weapons. They've been lobbing a lot of stuff at Ukraine today, presumably because Zelensky addressed the G20 meeting and I'm guessing that a couple of missiles went astray. It all looks like farmland, both sides of the border around there so it could be the Russians just bumping the table and spilling some NATO drinks but I suspect it's just shit shooting.

I don't think Putin is mad enough to deliberately allow it to happen. But then . . .

. . . it could be that Putin wants to use a response from NATO as a pretext for a general mobilisation . . .

That has crossed my mind but I doubt NATO are going to go crazy. They have pretty cool heads at the top of NATO and they'll be aware as well that it might be Putin looking for a strong response. They've got to make some sort of response of course but I doubt it'll be a military one.

[Ant]

To be a fly on the wall in top milly tree (milly tree as that's how news readers have now decided that military is pronounced) decision making offices....

[MingtheMerciless]

[Supermofo]

5 miles across the boarder, were they using Bristol Blenheims!!

[Ant]

5 miles across the boarder, were they using Bristol Blenheims!!

They were just using American accuracy tactics.

[JamJar]

Verify range to target, one ping only ….. give me a ping Vashilly

[Hoonercat]

Seems to be alot of strong hints that the missiles were fired by Ukraine while trying to intercept Russian missiles.

[irie]

Just hearing about this now.

I suspect that this is just a good example of the poor state of Russian forces and weapons. They've been lobbing a lot of stuff at Ukraine today, presumably because Zelensky addressed the G20 meeting and I'm guessing that a couple of missiles went astray. It all looks like farmland, both sides of the border around there so it could be the Russians just bumping the table and spilling some NATO drinks but I suspect it's just shit shooting.

I don't think Putin is mad enough to deliberately allow it to happen. But then . . .

. . . it could be that Putin wants to use a response from NATO as a pretext for a general mobilisation . . .

That has crossed my mind but I doubt NATO are going to go crazy. They have pretty cool heads at the top of NATO and they'll be aware as well that it might be Putin looking for a strong response. They've got to make some sort of response of course but I doubt it'll be a military one.

Agree, I don't think NATO will be goaded into any response suiting Putin's agenda.

[Mussels]

It's all happening in Belarus at the moment. Russian troops amassing in Brest, Lukashnko is on the way out, his pro-Europe foreign secratary died suddenly a couple of days ago and now the imprisoned opposition leader has just been admitted to intensive care.
Expect a new Putin puppet to be installed soon and Belarus to join the war, I don't expect it will make a huge difference to Ukraine but things might get a bit more chaotic.

[irie]

May be true or may not be, but does appear to be consistent with other reports.

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/11/30/za ... y-tolko-25

55% of Russians are in favor of negotiations with Ukraine, only 25% are in favor of continuing the war.

Meduza learned the results of a closed opinion poll commissioned by the Kremlin. Supporters of peace have doubled in six months

12:44, November 30, 2022

The Russian authorities noticed a decrease in public support for the war against the backdrop of constant defeats at the front and mobilization. Meduza has received the results of the latest closed opinion poll conducted by the FSO (such studies are commissioned by the Kremlin and for internal use only).

[irie]

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... s-12759836

Ukraine war latest: Putin's invasion plan revealed in captured documents

Russia planned to start the invasion with a "massive missile and airstrike campaign" against Ukrainian military targets, RUSI says, with a list also showing who should be killed, who would be intimidated and who would be targeted as a collaborator.

This has failed, so Russia appears to be pursuing a policy of destroying what it cannot have. If it gets forced out of Crimea I wouldn't be surprised to see it destroy all nuclear power plants in Ukraine and spread radiation across Ukraine (and eastern Europe).

In such an event Russia wouldn't care about it's own population adjacent to Ukraine being affected, they'd be collateral damage.

An Armageddon scenario.

[irie]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

The currently supplied HIMARS rocket range of about 70km will be too short to reach deep into Crimea.

Ukraine wants ATACMS rockets with a 300km range but the US is understandably reticent about supplying weapons that could reach deep into Russia (for example on the eastern front).

I think the US will have to supply ATACMS rockets. It could be that the cause of the delay is the need to make software changes to prevent the loading of target GPS coordinates anywhere in Russia. Could be wrong of course.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/03/poli ... index.html

In bid for new long-range rockets, Ukraine offers US targeting oversight.

In an effort to overcome Biden administration resistance to providing it with a new set of powerful, long-range rocket systems, the Ukrainian government is now offering the US full and ongoing visibility into their list of intended Russian targets, multiple officials familiar with the discussions tell CNN.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

So HIMARS already supplied to Ukraine have been modified ...

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3762 ... 0the%20war.

US secretly modified HIMARS for Ukraine to prevent Kyiv from shooting long-range missiles into Russia

The Pentagon secretly modified advanced rocket systems it sent to Ukraine to make the weapons unable to fire into Russia and escalate the war.

Since June, the U.S. has supplied Kyiv with 20 of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), but the weapons are uniquely modified so they can’t fire long-range missiles, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. officials.

[Cousin Jack]

Since June, the U.S. has supplied Kyiv with 20 of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), but the weapons are uniquely modified so they can’t fire long-range missiles, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. officials.

Seems a pity really. Russia can (and has) escalated by taking out civilian infrastructure all over Ukraine, not just the war zone.

Ukraine gets it's hands tied so it can't hit back. Not really very fair.