Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[slowsider]

I dont get how if the demo charge was below, it lit up the train...

[Yambo]

Heard from my friend Anton this mornıng. He's in the city of Zaporizhzhia and is not looking forward to the winter.

Zaporizhzhia was one of the 4 areas (Oblasts) that have been annexed by Putin despite the RF not holding a lot of the Oblast.

Anton's (and of course all those in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts that are not under Russian control) problem for the forseeable future is quite basic. The EU, which imposed sanctions on Russia, Luhansk and Donetsk back in February have extended those sanctions to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Whilst saying with one mouth they don't give any credence to the Russian referenda and annexation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia they are accepting that they have indeed been annexed and are now subject to the same sanctions as those areas which had them imposed in February.

Anton writes music for a living, most of it incidental music for TV shows and mostly gets paid via PayPal. He hasn't been called up (yet) but has been running a displaced persons centre in Zaporizhzhia. Charitable donations have failed to get as far East as the city, as they are picked apart by other charitable organisations further West. Following the EU's sanctions decision, PayPal and other banking services have withdrawn services from the two extra regions so now, as well as finding it difficult to help the displaced people, he's going to find it difficult to look after his own family.

He's forecasting a tough winter without heating and electricity as Russia will target the infrastructure and may well try and occupy the city during the winter.

[Screwdriver]

It is...but you don't have to damage a bridge that much to make it fall down, you just have to damage in the right place. They're not built with loads of duplicated features.

Well....this one was actually, which is why only half of it was damaged

I am merely joining in with the idle speculation (from my armchair). This is a massive civil construction and while you can poke holes in it from above, to destroy it would take an enormous, very accurate guided missile (which Ukraine do not possess) or a gargantuan guided bomb delivered though possibly the most heavily defended airspace currently on this planet. "They" don't have that either and if we want to maintain the facade of a proxy war without formally declaring WW3, it would be a lot more difficult to hide whodunnit.

Even a very large bomb delivered from underneath would need to take out a very substantial support structure to claim a bridge has been "destroyed". Barnes Wallace knew that also.

This tactical strike, however it was achieved, has certainly damaged the operational usefulness of this bridge temporarily but without taking out a support structure, will undoubtedly be repaired in next to no time.

I dont get how if the demo charge was below, it lit up the train...

One assumes the train was carrying fuel...

[Screwdriver]

Heard from my friend Anton this mornıng. He's in the city of Zaporizhzhia and is not looking forward to the winter.

Zaporizhzhia was one of the 4 areas (Oblasts) that have been annexed by Putin despite the RF not holding a lot of the Oblast.

Anton's (and of course all those in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts that are not under Russian control) problem for the forseeable future is quite basic. The EU, which imposed sanctions on Russia, Luhansk and Donetsk back in February have extended those sanctions to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Whilst saying with one mouth they don't give any credence to the Russian referenda and annexation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia they are accepting that they have indeed been annexed and are now subject to the same sanctions as those areas which had them imposed in February.

Anton writes music for a living, most of it incidental music for TV shows and mostly gets paid via PayPal. He hasn't been called up (yet) but has been running a displaced persons centre in Zaporizhzhia. Charitable donations have failed to get as far East as the city, as they are picked apart by other charitable organisations further West. Following the EU's sanctions decision, PayPal and other banking services have withdrawn services from the two extra regions so now, as well as finding it difficult to help the displaced people, he's going to find it difficult to look after his own family.

He's forecasting a tough winter without heating and electricity as Russia will target the infrastructure and may well try and occupy the city during the winter.

That is a very sad story and a reminder that real people and entire families are having their lives torn apart through no fault of their own.

There can be no winning here. It's like snakes and ladders but with far too many snakes in the game.

[Mussels]

Russia is sending soldiers to Belarus again but don't worry they aren't going to invade anyone this time, honest.

"The last thing they [Russia] need is another conflict. You know they have enough problems. Therefore, we should not expect a large number from the Russian Armed Forces. But it will be more than 1,000 people," Lukashenko said, according to Belta.

[Potter]

That is a very sad story and a reminder that real people and entire families are having their lives torn apart through no fault of their own.

There can be no winning here. It's like snakes and ladders but with far too many snakes in the game.

Indeed and I've held off commenting because I'd be facing the onslaught of everyone here brainwashed by western media.

I have Ukrainian and Russian friends, a close colleague just got back from holiday in Russia and was showing me pictures of massive infrastructure investment and build, she said Russia is booming and everyone is happy. Her mum lives all the way over in Siberia and she showed me google maps from ten years ago and today, the amount of building and malls is surprising, it looks like it's thriving. She said most people in Russia are happy and support what Putin is doing.

It reminds me of when the west was trying to annex the whole of the Middle East under Blair, there were some moaners but generally the UK was doing well and everyone supported our troops - although news reports on the other side of the world quite rightly reported that the west was being spanked by men in flip flops in almost every confrontation and the whole thing was a massive multi-trillion dollar disaster - something proved absolutely true by history and hindsight. It was a twenty year calamity that killed hundreds of thousands, probably millions when all factored in.

At the bottom of the pile of all the media bias and BS though are civilians, caught up in it all, living an absolute genuine nightmare.
No one gave a shit when it was brown Middle Eastern people, but the media has most of you whipped up about the whiteys suffering in Ukraine.
Both are/were real people.

[slowsider]

I think youve forgotten the protests about the war in Iraq and the spurious WMDs.

Is your Russian chum in favour of Putin's war as well as the economic developments?

[Potter]

I think youve forgotten the protests about the war in Iraq and the spurious WMDs.

Is your Russian chum in favour of Putin's war as well as the economic developments?

That's my point, the west invaded under total lies and BS, countless lives lost, decades of misery - there were some protests but in general the majority carried on as normal.

I'd say the Russians I know are about the same, not exactly in favour of war but don't really give a monkeys, the government says it ok so they accept it and crack on, just like the westerners did for two decades.

[irie]

I think youve forgotten the protests about the war in Iraq and the spurious WMDs.

Is your Russian chum in favour of Putin's war as well as the economic developments?

That's my point, the west invaded under total lies and BS, countless lives lost, decades of misery - there were some protests but in general the majority carried on as normal.

I'd say the Russians I know are about the same, not exactly in favour of war but don't really give a monkeys, the government says it ok so they accept it and crack on, just like the westerners did for two decades.

Here are the facts about public opinion of the Iraq war. At the time 58% were for and 35% were against which even within one year reversed to 43% for and 49% against.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/583 ... n-in-iraq/

[slowsider]

I think youve forgotten the protests about the war in Iraq and the spurious WMDs.

Is your Russian chum in favour of Putin's war as well as the economic developments?

That's my point, the west invaded under total lies and BS, countless lives lost, decades of misery - there were some protests but in general the majority carried on as normal.

I'd say the Russians I know are about the same, not exactly in favour of war but don't really give a monkeys, the government says it ok so they accept it and crack on, just like the westerners did for two decades.

Here are the facts about public opinion of the Iraq war. At the time 58% were for and 35% were against which even within one year reversed to 43% for and 49% against.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/583 ... n-in-iraq/

Will you let us have the comparable figures for Russian public opinion for the current conflict. Thanks.

[Hoonercat]

No one gave a shit when it was brown Middle Eastern people, but the media has most of you whipped up about the whiteys suffering in Ukraine.
Both are/were real people.

Not really comparable though, are they? You're talking about one group of people fleeing to neighbouring countries to seek safety, and another group where large numbers fled to another continent. According to Poland, who have taken in the most Ukraine refugess, 94% are women and children. What percentage of Middle Eastern refugess were women and children? Probably more than certain sections of the UK media would want you to believe, but nowhere near 94%.
Also worth noting that EU countries took in 1/6th of Syrian refugees (obviously someone gave a shit about brown Middle Eastern people) the majority are likely there to stay, whereas the largest intakers of Ukrainian refugees are only allowing temporary status and updating as the war continues. Ukraine is already reporting that 30,000 are returning each day, despite the ongoing war.

[Potter]

Oh well, let's see, I can't be arsed arguing with people that can only see through western eyes, but if Russia spends two decades and trillions of dollars killing and displacing millions of people in this 'war' and creating another wave of global resentment and reprisals (they call it terrorism), then it might be somewhere near comparable and we can discuss.

[Screwdriver]

Something else not being widely supported is that China and Russia (lit. Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa) have developed an alliance to threaten the entire Western economic model: BRICS.

When you consider America is being run by and for the economic interest of global corporations and gigantic asset management companies, that should be a worry. PayPal recently let the cat out of the bag with their "commit wrongthink and we'll fine you" policy (immediately withdrawn!) which indicates how we (the people) are destined to be controlled using our "virtual" finance. It is exactly the model used to control communist dictatorships. The ultimate "track and trace"...

Yes, I became over obsessed with this and no, there's nothing we can do about it but that's the way it is going with the West. Own nothing and be happy.

Those responsible for this proxy war are not going to suffer the consequences of a global meltdown. Far from it, they will profit HUGELY from all this disaster. We on the other hand have to put up with energy bills that won't just make our lives a misery but will drive many businesses and farms under. That is to say, under the control of global corporate interests, asset management companies and a handful of multi billionaires...

[Screwdriver]

Not really comparable though, are they?

Yes of course it is. The reality of war is horrific. Bombs, burning, death, disease, hunger, torture, rape. Go tell a Syrian refugee "yeah but this is different".

"Our" reasoning for it may not be "comparable" our reporting of it certainly isn't but the end result is the same: Misery, death and destruction for the poor, unlimited profiteering by the rich.

[Mr. Dazzle]

PayPal recently let the cat out of the bag with their "commit wrongthink and we'll fine you" policy (immediately withdrawn!) which indicates how we (the people) are destined to be controlled using our "virtual" finance. It is exactly the model used to control communist dictatorships. The ultimate "track and trace"...

You might want to have a read on how WeChat works.

[Kneerly Down]

She said most people in Russia are happy and support what Putin is doing.

It must be really, really popular, as all the democratically elected politicians unanimously voted for it.
And if you stand anywhere in public with even a blank placard you are scooped up by the police. Obviously, that's what everyone wants also.

To draw some moral equivalence between the West and Russia/China is not just being unencumbered by the bias of Western media, but being unencumbered by reality.

[slowsider]

She said most people in Russia are happy and support what Putin is doing.

It must be really, really popular, as all the democratically elected politicians unanimously voted for it.
And if you stand anywhere in public with even a blank placard you are scooped up by the police. Obviously, that's what everyone wants also.

To draw some moral equivalence between the West and Russia/China is not just being unencumbered by the bias of Western media, but being unencumbered by reality.

I understood his substantive point to be that to a civilian under the barrage, it doesnt matter who launched it.

[Screwdriver]

You might want to have a read on how WeChat works.

I am well aware of its connection to the CCP but it doesn't concern me greatly.

Western social media chats, comms are just as compromised regarding security.

These days I just let them get on with it... <hello world>

[MingtheMerciless]

She said most people in Russia are happy and support what Putin is doing.

It must be really, really popular, as all the democratically elected politicians unanimously voted for it.
And if you stand anywhere in public with even a blank placard you are scooped up by the police. Obviously, that's what everyone wants also.

To draw some moral equivalence between the West and Russia/China is not just being unencumbered by the bias of Western media, but being unencumbered by reality.

And if your a senior leadership member/oligarch and you disagree with the boss your chances of falling out of a window, committing “suicide” or being poisoned become much higher.

[Potter]

She said most people in Russia are happy and support what Putin is doing.

It must be really, really popular, as all the democratically elected politicians unanimously voted for it.
And if you stand anywhere in public with even a blank placard you are scooped up by the police. Obviously, that's what everyone wants also.

To draw some moral equivalence between the West and Russia/China is not just being unencumbered by the bias of Western media, but being unencumbered by reality.

I understood his substantive point to be that to a civilian under the barrage, it doesnt matter who launched it.

It was.

But to take his point, and to firm up mine about only being able to see through western eyes, I'm very happy with living in a country where you can't just write something on a placard and annoy people in public, in theory I don't have freedom of speech but I don't need it, I don't need tabloid newspapers full of absolute shite and people standing on street corners accosting me with their version of different shite. I don't want the freedom to stagger drunk through the streets and abuse emergency workers without fear of a good hiding, I don't want to be Piers Morgan talking really nasty shit about someone without fear of being taken away for it.

I can'r swear in the street, I can't insult someone just because I want to, I can't make up lies about politicians and go around spreading them, they're freedoms that the west give people and I don't see that the country is better off for it.

The government do what they do and I do what I do, they set what I think are reasonable rules and they're pretty relaxed until you break their rules, then you're in big trouble, but I don't break their rules and I don't feel the need to have the right to break their rules.

Put it this way, I'd much rather have lived in Baghdad under Saddam than in London under Sadiq Khan.