Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Horse]

Odd that he [modestly] thinks it refers to him, since it contained no context ...

[MingtheMerciless]

Video from bridge control room (allegedly):

[slowsider]

Kerching!

Totally shows
What
A sensible
Thing ignore is

Yeah well everyone hates you in this dorm, obviously, but why has he got Mingthemerciless on ignore too?

His ignore list must be into two volumes by now

[Horse]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63183783

Reporting it has collapsed

Reports of my death errr its collapse etc.

[irie]

Given the current rate of Ukrainian military advances, with 190 mile range HIMARS launched ATACMS with one assumes M30A1 warheads virtually the whole of Crimea would soon be within devastating Ukrainian rocket range ...

[Mussels]

According to some Russian media the UK did the bridge in.

Crimean Bridge: Traces of sabotage lead to England
The British SAS has long hunted for a crossing through the Kerch Strait

[MingtheMerciless]

The SAS have a long history of Auntie Mabel dying unexpectedly and troops having to go on compassionate leave to far flung places.

[JackyJoll]

According to some Russian media the UK did the bridge in.

Crimean Bridge: Traces of sabotage lead to England
The British SAS has long hunted for a crossing through the Kerch Strait

I’d like to think our lads could break a bridge so it stayed broken.

[Screwdriver]

Bridge like that can only be destroyed from below. Something is definitely entering into the frame underneath the precise location of the explosion just before it goes off. Pictures show no evidence of an explosion on top of the collapsed road section, rules out a truck bomb imho.

My money's on a floating or submersible bomb. Possibly developed for this specific target.

[irie]

Bridge like that can only be destroyed from below. Something is definitely entering into the frame underneath the precise location of the explosion just before it goes off. Pictures show no evidence of an explosion on top of the collapsed road section, rules out a truck bomb imho.

My money's on a floating or submersible bomb. Possibly developed for this specific target.

https://news.sky.com/video/special-forc ... t-12715274

Defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke says Russia's claim that a vehicle exploded on the Kerch Bridge is "ridiculous".

[Mr. Dazzle]

Bridge like that can only be destroyed from below.

Might want to tell that to every air force in the world then, so they stop targeting bridges

I was idly thinking about this yesterday. It seems unlikely to me too that a truck bomb would do much, it'd all just go "up" in the bang. But then I got to thinking that if you knew what you were doing you wouldn't just pack a truck with explosives and light the fuse...there's loads you can do with explosives to direct the blast right? The little NLAW single use rockets have shown that in this very conflict, little dinky shoulder launched things taking out tanks left right and centre.

it's a question for the civil engineers and demolition crews, not the military analysts?

[slowsider]

Bridge like that can only be destroyed from below.

Might want to tell that to every air force in the world then, so they stop targeting bridges

I was idly thinking about this yesterday. It seems unlikely to me too that a truck bomb would do much, it'd all just go "up" in the bang. But then I got to thinking that if you knew what you were doing you wouldn't just pack a truck with explosives and light the fuse...there's loads you can do with explosives to direct the blast right? The little NLAW single use rockets have shown that in this very conflict, little dinky shoulder launched things taking out tanks left right and centre.

Yebbut, a shaped charge poking a hole in a tank is a different scale to taking down a bridge.

[Mr. Dazzle]

Yebbut, a shaped charge poking a hole in a tank is a different scale to taking down a bridge.

It is...but you don't have to damage a bridge that much to make it fall down, you just have to damage in the right place. They're not built with loads of duplicated features.

Well....this one was actually, which is why only half of it was damaged

[slowsider]

I dont get how if the demo charge was below, it lit up the train...

[Yambo]

Heard from my friend Anton this mornıng. He's in the city of Zaporizhzhia and is not looking forward to the winter.

Zaporizhzhia was one of the 4 areas (Oblasts) that have been annexed by Putin despite the RF not holding a lot of the Oblast.

Anton's (and of course all those in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts that are not under Russian control) problem for the forseeable future is quite basic. The EU, which imposed sanctions on Russia, Luhansk and Donetsk back in February have extended those sanctions to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Whilst saying with one mouth they don't give any credence to the Russian referenda and annexation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia they are accepting that they have indeed been annexed and are now subject to the same sanctions as those areas which had them imposed in February.

Anton writes music for a living, most of it incidental music for TV shows and mostly gets paid via PayPal. He hasn't been called up (yet) but has been running a displaced persons centre in Zaporizhzhia. Charitable donations have failed to get as far East as the city, as they are picked apart by other charitable organisations further West. Following the EU's sanctions decision, PayPal and other banking services have withdrawn services from the two extra regions so now, as well as finding it difficult to help the displaced people, he's going to find it difficult to look after his own family.

He's forecasting a tough winter without heating and electricity as Russia will target the infrastructure and may well try and occupy the city during the winter.

[Screwdriver]

It is...but you don't have to damage a bridge that much to make it fall down, you just have to damage in the right place. They're not built with loads of duplicated features.

Well....this one was actually, which is why only half of it was damaged

I am merely joining in with the idle speculation (from my armchair). This is a massive civil construction and while you can poke holes in it from above, to destroy it would take an enormous, very accurate guided missile (which Ukraine do not possess) or a gargantuan guided bomb delivered though possibly the most heavily defended airspace currently on this planet. "They" don't have that either and if we want to maintain the facade of a proxy war without formally declaring WW3, it would be a lot more difficult to hide whodunnit.

Even a very large bomb delivered from underneath would need to take out a very substantial support structure to claim a bridge has been "destroyed". Barnes Wallace knew that also.

This tactical strike, however it was achieved, has certainly damaged the operational usefulness of this bridge temporarily but without taking out a support structure, will undoubtedly be repaired in next to no time.

I dont get how if the demo charge was below, it lit up the train...

One assumes the train was carrying fuel...

[Screwdriver]

Heard from my friend Anton this mornıng. He's in the city of Zaporizhzhia and is not looking forward to the winter.

Zaporizhzhia was one of the 4 areas (Oblasts) that have been annexed by Putin despite the RF not holding a lot of the Oblast.

Anton's (and of course all those in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts that are not under Russian control) problem for the forseeable future is quite basic. The EU, which imposed sanctions on Russia, Luhansk and Donetsk back in February have extended those sanctions to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Whilst saying with one mouth they don't give any credence to the Russian referenda and annexation of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia they are accepting that they have indeed been annexed and are now subject to the same sanctions as those areas which had them imposed in February.

Anton writes music for a living, most of it incidental music for TV shows and mostly gets paid via PayPal. He hasn't been called up (yet) but has been running a displaced persons centre in Zaporizhzhia. Charitable donations have failed to get as far East as the city, as they are picked apart by other charitable organisations further West. Following the EU's sanctions decision, PayPal and other banking services have withdrawn services from the two extra regions so now, as well as finding it difficult to help the displaced people, he's going to find it difficult to look after his own family.

He's forecasting a tough winter without heating and electricity as Russia will target the infrastructure and may well try and occupy the city during the winter.

That is a very sad story and a reminder that real people and entire families are having their lives torn apart through no fault of their own.

There can be no winning here. It's like snakes and ladders but with far too many snakes in the game.

[Mussels]

Russia is sending soldiers to Belarus again but don't worry they aren't going to invade anyone this time, honest.

"The last thing they [Russia] need is another conflict. You know they have enough problems. Therefore, we should not expect a large number from the Russian Armed Forces. But it will be more than 1,000 people," Lukashenko said, according to Belta.

[slowsider]

I think youve forgotten the protests about the war in Iraq and the spurious WMDs.

Is your Russian chum in favour of Putin's war as well as the economic developments?

[irie]

I think youve forgotten the protests about the war in Iraq and the spurious WMDs.

Is your Russian chum in favour of Putin's war as well as the economic developments?

That's my point, the west invaded under total lies and BS, countless lives lost, decades of misery - there were some protests but in general the majority carried on as normal.

I'd say the Russians I know are about the same, not exactly in favour of war but don't really give a monkeys, the government says it ok so they accept it and crack on, just like the westerners did for two decades.

Here are the facts about public opinion of the Iraq war. At the time 58% were for and 35% were against which even within one year reversed to 43% for and 49% against.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/583 ... n-in-iraq/