Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[slowsider]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

It's wonderful being on someone's ignore list

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

I'd quote you, but it will have the same result

[Horse]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

It's wonderful being on someone's ignore list

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

I'd quote you, but it will have the same result

Wonder whether this will work?

@irie

[Hoonercat]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

It's wonderful being on someone's ignore list

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

I'd quote you, but it will have the same result

Well allow me to step forward and help you all ou..
Oh, wait...

[Mussels]

The Wall Street Journal made an intersting statement which I could well believe.
The biggest supplier of heavy weaponry to Ukraine is Russia due to all of the kit they abandon when running away.

[irie]

The Wall Street Journal made an intersting statement which I could well believe.
The biggest supplier of heavy weaponry to Ukraine is Russia due to all of the kit they abandon when running away.

If the US does indeed supply ATACMS rockets to Ukraine then Russia will become the largest supplier of Crimea scrap metal to Ukraine.

The Saky air base attack may have been a dry run.

[Mussels]

If Russia sends all those conscripts in then it will also be Ukraine's biggest source of Soylent Green.

[irie]

If Russia sends all those conscripts in then it will also be Ukraine's biggest source of Soylent Green.

As said on September 24th:

Seems to me that by forcing recalcitrant soldiers into the Russian army Putin has injected a 'fifth column' into the army. What could possibly go wrong?

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/ ... rve-a78857

[Horse]

Analysts are struggling to see how the war in Ukraine will end, says Timothy Snyder in his Substack newsletter. Many can’t look beyond the terrifying possibility of a Russian nuclear strike. But I think there’s another, more “plausible” scenario: that Russia’s battlefield defeats will precipitate an internal power struggle, leading to the swift withdrawal of Moscow’s forces from Ukraine. It may even be starting to happen already. In recent weeks two prominent political figures – Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the feared Wagner mercenary group – have openly and “brutally” criticised the Russian high command for failures in Ukraine. Crucially, both men effectively control their own private armies, with fighters deployed in the war.

If Kadyrov or Prigozhin get even the slightest inkling that Putin is losing his grip on power, everything changes. They would want to get their men out of Ukraine and back to Russia, either to protect their interests or to “make a play for Moscow”. The same logic applies to the Russian army itself: ambitious commanders would “pull back while they still have units to command”. None of this would necessarily result in armed conflict breaking out in Russia. But it would leave Vladimir Putin with no choice but to pull his troops out of Ukraine – keeping the army on side, and in close proximity, would be essential “for his own political survival”.

[irie]

M30A1

Game changer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambl ... dfddf76dbc

[Hoonercat]

Analysts are struggling to see how the war in Ukraine will end, says Timothy Snyder in his Substack newsletter. Many can’t look beyond the terrifying possibility of a Russian nuclear strike. But I think there’s another, more “plausible” scenario: that Russia’s battlefield defeats will precipitate an internal power struggle, leading to the swift withdrawal of Moscow’s forces from Ukraine. It may even be starting to happen already. In recent weeks two prominent political figures – Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the feared Wagner mercenary group – have openly and “brutally” criticised the Russian high command for failures in Ukraine. Crucially, both men effectively control their own private armies, with fighters deployed in the war.

If Kadyrov or Prigozhin get even the slightest inkling that Putin is losing his grip on power, everything changes. They would want to get their men out of Ukraine and back to Russia, either to protect their interests or to “make a play for Moscow”. The same logic applies to the Russian army itself: ambitious commanders would “pull back while they still have units to command”. None of this would necessarily result in armed conflict breaking out in Russia. But it would leave Vladimir Putin with no choice but to pull his troops out of Ukraine – keeping the army on side, and in close proximity, would be essential “for his own political survival”.

Sorry dude, we agree on lots of things but this 'analyst' doesn't have a clue, he's no different to the Russian propagandists. Yes, both have criticised the Russian high command, but not Putin. In the past week, Kadyrov stated he would give up his Chechnyan leadership in return for a major role in the Russian military, within 2 days he withdrew that statement. While he is seen as a 'patriot', he is a Muslim, which gives him absolultely no chance of becoming the leader of an Eastern Orthodox nation. As for Prigozhin, he has about 2,000 mercenaries operating in Ukraine, recalling them in order to 'make a play for Moscow' would do no more than ensure he's the next one to have an accidental fall from a window. As for those 'ambitious commanders', their biggest fear is being tried for war crimes should Putin be overthrown, self interest and self preservation will ensure their loyalty.
The suggestion that critism from these two of the Russian military command would force Putin to withdraw is nothing more than wishful thinking, if anything, it's going to push him further towards using 'low-intensity' nukes, something Kadyrov was calling for after the Ukraine advance in Kharkiv.

[slowsider]

Prigozhin has bigger fish to fry in sub-Saharan Africa.

https://african.business/2022/09/energy ... try-trade/

[Horse]

But not only has he had to pull back from total take over, he is now losing the 4 bits he thought he could bargain with by saying 'OK I'll only take these bits'.

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

Let's see how long it is before irie posts this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183404

A large fire on the only crossing between the occupied Crimean peninsula and Russia was caused by a lorry explosion, Russian state media say.

The explosion on the road bridge then led to oil tankers on the rail section catching fire.

Footage showed a train ablaze, with the adjacent road crossing also appearing to have sustained damage.

Russian state media say traffic has been suspended.

"Today at 06:07 on the road part of the Crimean bridge from the side of the Taman Peninsula, a truck was blown up, which caused the ignition of seven fuel tanks of a railway train heading towards the Crimean peninsula," Russian state agency RIA Novosti quotes the National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAC) as saying.

[MingtheMerciless]

That’ll stir things up a bit. Reading between the lines it was sabotage attack rather than missile strike, either that or “lax smoking discipline” again.

[irie]

Wonder if/when the Kerch bridge will be made militarily unusable?

Accident, or Ukrainian attack?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/08/europe/c ... index.html

A fuel tank exploded early Saturday on Europe’s longest bridge, which links Russia to the annexed territory of Crimea, according to Russian state media RIA and social media footage.

Images of the Kerch bridge posted on social media appear to show a portion of the roadway of the vehicle and rail bridge had fallen into the waters below it. Flames are seen burning from rail cars above.

[Horse]

Kerching!

Totally shows
What
A sensible
Thing ignore is

[wheelnut]

The Wall Street Journal made an intersting statement which I could well believe.
The biggest supplier of heavy weaponry to Ukraine is Russia due to all of the kit they abandon when running away.

The Times said the same thing this morning. Apparently the Russians aren’t disabling their tanks when they are leaving them behind. The Ukrainians are just jumping in them.

[JackyJoll]

Kerching!

Totally shows
What
A sensible
Thing ignore is

Yeah well everyone hates you in this dorm, obviously, but why has he got Mingthemerciless on ignore too?

[Horse]

Kerching!

Totally shows
What
A sensible
Thing ignore is

Yeah well everyone hates you in this dorm, obviously, but why has he got Mingthemerciless on ignore too?

His ignore list must be into two volumes by now

[Horse]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63183783

Reporting it has collapsed

[irie]

Kerching!

Totally shows
What
A sensible
Thing ignore is

Yeah well everyone hates you in this dorm, obviously, but why has he got Mingthemerciless on ignore too?

The above peurile post is indicative of why @Horse is on 'ignore' along with the slow one from Tipperary and the dog lover in his (iirc) Bulgarian paradise.

The @MingtheMerciless post only made sense if one read the previous posts, which I didn't of course.