Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[irie]

Ukrainian forces have now liberated Kremmina which I think is about 60km from the Russian border. Assuming that Ukrainian forces do reach the Russian border it seems to me that this means that Russian supply lines to Luhansk, Donetsk, and onwards to Crimea from the north will be cut. And with winter coming ...

[irie]

Ukrainian forces have now liberated Kremmina which I think is about 60km from the Russian border. Assuming that Ukrainian forces do reach the Russian border it seems to me that this means that Russian supply lines to Luhansk, Donetsk, and onwards to Crimea from the north will be cut. And with winter coming ...

Don't recall where I read that Kreminna has been liberated so might not be true.

[Horse]

Ukrainian forces have now liberated Kremmina which I think is about 60km from the Russian border. Assuming that Ukrainian forces do reach the Russian border it seems to me that this means that Russian supply lines to Luhansk, Donetsk, and onwards to Crimea from the north will be cut. And with winter coming ...

Don't recall where I read that Kreminna has been liberated so might not be true.

Almost?

The Ukrainian military has liberated the village of Torske near Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, which is located on the road to Luhansk’s city of Kreminna, and is hitting Russia’s units at Kreminna, said Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the air of the national telethon on 3 October. Unconfirmed reports on the liberation of Torske emerged on 2 October on social media

[irie]

Ukrainian forces near Kherson have taken Zolota Balka which is on the west Bank of the Dnipro River. Since major bridges over the Dnipro have been made impassable to all but light vehicles, Russian forces on the west of the Dnipro River are now completely cut off.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/885700-rus ... ksandrivka

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has recognized the breakthrough by the Armed Forces of Ukraine of their defense in the directions of Zolota Balka and Oleksandrivka in the Kherson Region.

This is stated in the message of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

"With the superior tank units in the direction of the Zolota Balka, Oleksandrivka the enemy managed to wedge into the depth of our defense. Units of Russian troops occupied a pre-prepared defensive line and continue to inflict a massive fire defeat on the enemy," the report said.

[slowsider]

"In a terrifying blog post, Goemans’s former student Branislav Slantchev laid out a few potential scenarios. He believes that the Russian front in the Donbas is still in danger of imminent collapse. If this were to happen, Putin would need to escalate even further. This could take the form of more attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, but, if the goal is to stop Ukrainian advances, a likelier option would be a small tactical nuclear strike. Slantchev suggests that it would be under one kiloton—that is, about fifteen times smaller than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. It would nonetheless be devastating, and would almost certainly lead to an intense reaction from the West. Slantchev does not think that NATO would respond with nuclear strikes of its own, but it could, for example, destroy the Russian Black Sea Fleet. This could lead to yet another round of escalation. In such a situation, the West may be tempted, finally, to retreat. Slantchev urged them not to. “This is it now,” he wrote. “This is for all the marbles.” "

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annal ... obal-en-GB

[Yambo]

Personally, I think Putin is itching like crazy to use a nuke.

I think he'd prefer it was NATO or the US creating the itch and not his own failings/failures but the itch is there. He's going to have to scratch it.

[MingtheMerciless]

Various military blogs I read have explored the nuclear options, none of them good. The best summary I've found is here:

http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/ ... n.html?m=1

@Yambo is right, Putin is increasing the rhetoric and is looking for an excuse to let that unpleasant genie out of the bottle.

Russian battlefield doctrine also includes the use of battlefield/tactical nukes. Unlike the West which separates normal warfare and nuclear warfare.

[Horse]

If Vladimir Putin decides to fire a nuclear weapon at Ukraine, says Lewis Page in The Sunday Telegraph, he can’t just press the button himself. He would first have to seek agreement from the Russian General Staff, the high command of the country’s armed forces. And there’s no guarantee the top brass would play ball. If they don’t feel the threshold for taking nuclear action has been reached – that a conventional war being waged on Russia threatens “the very existence of the state”, for example – they can block the order. That decision will largely fall to one man: the Chief of the General Staff, Army-General Valery Gerasimov.

Unlike Putin, Gerasimov is a soldier by background – and by all accounts an honourable one. In 2000, during the Second Chechen War, he “personally arrested a rogue Russian colonel” who had murdered and probably raped a Chechen teenager. The brave journalist Anna Politkovskaya (who was later assassinated) said he had “preserved his honour as an officer” during that brutal conflict – “not something that could be said of many”. Of course, it’s impossible to know for sure how Gerasimov would react if ordered to launch a nuclear strike. But if he did refuse, he’d know full well that Putin would respond by having him killed. So his only way of staying alive would be to kill the Russian leader first. That fact, as much as any geopolitical calculation, must weigh on Putin’s mind. Giving the order to launch a nuke “puts his personal survival at severe risk”.

[Asian Boss]

I've been told to be ready to go over there in the old Fiver with Gunny if it's deemed necessary. I've got some Fila VIntage and retro Pumas ready just in case.

[wheelnut]

Personally, I think Putin is itching like crazy to use a nuke.

I think he'd prefer it was NATO or the US creating the itch and not his own failings/failures but the itch is there. He's going to have to scratch it.

I don’t know. He’s got to know it’s a big step. The results could have a huge variance and, with the prevailing winds, it would definitely ruffle Erdogan’s feathers.

It’s been very much an old fashioned, conventional by the numbers war so far, but I think the more he’s back into a corner by the failure of his conventional forces the more dangerous he will be.

I have no idea what NATOs response will be to a nuclear weapon release by Russia. I doubt they would retaliate with a nuclear strike but the would have to do something.

[Supermofo]

Gotta say Putin worries me. On the one hand any rational man must know nukes are off the table but I don't think Putin is rational and like Hitler I don't think he'll care about taking others with him if he fails.

He's been made to look like a prize bell end. He expected to win his 'special operation' in days, I don't even think he expected a full war. But not only has he had to pull back from total take over, he is now losing the 4 bits he thought he could bargain with by saying 'OK I'll only take these bits'. So he's facing the possibility of total defeat. At that point I'd be worried he say's I've lost so everyone loses. But it's all a gamble, just not one I'm enjoying much. I'm hoping/guessing that NATO and lots of clever people are weighing up these things and that'll stop us getting to the point a nuke happens but anyone can get it wrong.

In the meantime I'm trying not to think about a nuke going off as that feels a bit to scary.

[Mr. Dazzle]

In the meantime I'm trying not to think about a nuke going off as that feels a bit to scary.

It's just like old times!

[ChrisW]

In the meantime I'm trying not to think about a nuke going off as that feels a bit to scary.

I'm trying to console myself with the possibility that his nukes are about as state of the art as the rest of his military.

[Horse]

But not only has he had to pull back from total take over, he is now losing the 4 bits he thought he could bargain with by saying 'OK I'll only take these bits'.

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.

[slowsider]

In the meantime I'm trying not to think about a nuke going off as that feels a bit to scary.

I'm trying to console myself with the possibility that his nukes are about as state of the art as the rest of his military.

Not just his:

"South Korea’s military has apologised after a missile it launched during a drill on Tuesday malfunctioned and crashed to the ground, causing alarm among nearby residents who thought they were under attack from North Korea, which had test launched a missile earlier in the day.
The live-fire drill, involving South Korea and the US, was supposed to be a show of strength by the allies, hours after the North sent an intermediate-range missile over northern Japan."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... st-crashes

[Hoonercat]

I can't see Putin using tactical nukes this year, winter should see the Ukraine counter-offensive grind to a halt in the east come the next 4 - 6 weeks, though heavy fighting may continue in the Kherson region as Ukraine looks set to partly encircle Russian forces over the coming weeks. The biggest threat to Ukraine will be its energy infrastructure, Putin is not beyond freezing thousands to death in the hope of forcing the Ukraine people to demand a negotiated solution. Ukraine, I should imagine, will step up its efforts to disrupt Russian supply lines in the hope of driving down Russian morale over what could be a very difficult winter, given that winter will give Putin time to 'bed in' his new recruits, ready for a fresh offensive in the spring.

[Horse]

There are weird but simple ways that even ultra high tech weapons can fail.

In the ME, one of the Scud missiles got through the defence system. That was designed as a 'portable' system, not intended to be installed and left on 24/7, for weeks at a time.

There was a small amount of 'rounding' in the software. A daily restart eliminated it, otherwise it became cumulative and eroded accuracy.

[Hoonercat]

Interesting to see how Russia's numerical tank advantage has crumbled as the war progresses. The breaktrough in the south has been attributed by Russia as being due to "numerically superior tank units” (of Ukraine). In the first months of the war, logistics was the key downfall, when 53% of Russian tanks losses were simply down to being abandoned. At the time, this was put down to Russian tanks advancing too quickly and without enough infantry support and logistical support, but with the Russians now 'digging in' you'd have thought their numerical superiority would start to show benefits.

[irie]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

The currently supplied HIMARS rocket range of about 70km will be too short to reach deep into Crimea.

Ukraine wants ATACMS rockets with a 300km range but the US is understandably reticent about supplying weapons that could reach deep into Russia (for example on the eastern front).

I think the US will have to supply ATACMS rockets. It could be that the cause of the delay is the need to make software changes to prevent the loading of target GPS coordinates anywhere in Russia. Could be wrong of course.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/03/poli ... index.html

In bid for new long-range rockets, Ukraine offers US targeting oversight

In an effort to overcome Biden administration resistance to providing it with a new set of powerful, long-range rocket systems, the Ukrainian government is now offering the US full and ongoing visibility into their list of intended Russian targets, multiple officials familiar with the discussions tell CNN.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

[Horse]

Given the rapid advances Ukrainian forces are making they may soon be knocking on Crimea's door.

It's wonderful being on someone's ignore list

A real possibility that Ukraine could retake Crimea too. As Irie noted a few days back, the bridge from Russia is becoming vulnerable.