Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

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Will Russia invade the Ukraine

Yes
20
49%
No
12
29%
Maybe
9
22%
 
Total votes: 41

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Horse
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

KungFooBob wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:28 am It doesn't look very 'destroyed'.
Further in the link:

While the exact circumstances of how the drone boat came to be on the beach are unclear, the Russian governor of Sevastopol did say earlier today in a post on social media that a USV had been destroyed after being detected near the city. That followed reports of an explosion in the Black Sea just off the coast. There have been subsequent reports that the blast was the result of a controlled detonation of a naval mine, which are certainly real threats in the region at present, but this remains largely unconfirmed. At the time of writing, there are no clear indications one way or another that the blast and the beached USV are in any way related, or that this is the drone boat that authorities said was destroyed.

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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Anthony Blinken at the UN:

"If Russia stops fighting, the war ends".

"If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends".

That is the bottom line.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

If we give in with Ukraine then next it will be Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, followed by Finland.

Putin said so.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Mussels »

Georgians are a bit worried now they have a large Russian population.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

If true, (imho) the resultant civil unrest will force regime change.

https://www.businessinsider.com/secret- ... ?r=US&IR=T
Secret clause in Putin's mobilization decree may allow him to draft up to 1 million reservists, an independent Russian outlet reports

A hidden clause in Russian President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization decree permits the country's defense ministry to draft one million reservists, according to a report from Novaya Gazeta Europe, which cited a source in the presidential administration. The Novaya Gazeta is an independent newspaper that's been banned in Russia amid Putin's crackdown on freedom of information and the free press, but continues to publish out of Riga, Latvia.

The seventh paragraph of the decree is redacted and designated "for official use," according to the report.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

From the BBC:
Sergei - not his real name - has already been called up.
The 26-year-old PhD student and lecturer was expecting a delivery of groceries the night before the Putin address, when two men arrived in civilian clothes handing him military papers to sign.
The Kremlin said only people who had done their military service and had special skills and combat experience would be called up.
But Sergei has no military experience and his stepfather is worried, as dodging the draft is a criminal offence in Russia.
Also reported that some of those arrested for anti-war protests have been handed draft notices while in custody. Last week a video emerged of the Wagner Group leader attempting to recruit prisoners to fight in Ukraine, promising them freedom if they survive though according to the report there's nothing in Russian law which allows for this. Signs of desperation.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Mussels »

He's certainly picked his side and that's the minority hard liners, expect IEDs and unexplained fires to become more common in Russia.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Seems to me that by forcing recalcitrant soldiers into the Russian army Putin has injected a 'fifth column' into the army. What could possibly go wrong? ;)

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/ ... rve-a78857
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Supermofo »

irie wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:23 pm If true, (imho) the resultant civil unrest will force regime change.

https://www.businessinsider.com/secret- ... ?r=US&IR=T
Secret clause in Putin's mobilization decree may allow him to draft up to 1 million reservists, an independent Russian outlet reports

A hidden clause in Russian President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization decree permits the country's defense ministry to draft one million reservists, according to a report from Novaya Gazeta Europe, which cited a source in the presidential administration. The Novaya Gazeta is an independent newspaper that's been banned in Russia amid Putin's crackdown on freedom of information and the free press, but continues to publish out of Riga, Latvia.

The seventh paragraph of the decree is redacted and designated "for official use," according to the report.
Looking at Russian history, does it? Seems to me it's a population used to being dicked unfortunately
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by slowsider »

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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Yambo »

It seems that following the overwhelming vote in the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine in favour of being Russian, lots of men there are about to be conscripted into the Russian army where they're going to have to fight for their new homeland.

There's a number of ways this could go so it wouldn't be right to speculate but I think it's perhaps one of the few things that Putin has got right. They want to be Russian, they should fight for Russia.

It'll all be good.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by MingtheMerciless »

Iranian drones seem to be causing a problem, flying low and difficult to see on radar:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/2 ... r-00058802

From a not so good source, ruSSian soldiers in Kherson and Zaporiza are being given chemical warfare suits, iodine tablets and other things for radiation sickness (from twitter so take with ALL the salt).
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

Yambo wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:21 pm They want to be Russian, they should fight for Russia.

It'll all be good.
Especially if Putin nukes their homeland ...
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/n ... platforms/

Operators urged to be vigilant after drones spotted near North Sea platforms

Norway’s offshore watchdog has urged “increased vigilance” after unidentified drones were spotted near North Sea platforms.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by MingtheMerciless »

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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

On Friday, Putin urged Ukraine to "cease hostilities and return to the negotiation table" as he announced the annexation of four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine.
Ukraine refused, and today liberated the town of Lyman, situated in the newly-annexed region of Donetsk. Russia announced the withdrawal of its troops due to Ukraine's 'significant superiority in forces and means'. It's a strategically importnat town for Ukraine, not only does it allow their forces to encircle the remaining Russian troops in Kharkiv region, it also opens up the entire north of the Donetsk region to recapture.
Putin's generals have got some explaining to do, given all the pomp and ceremony yesterday. :silent:
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Mussels »

Given Ukraine's recent calls to join NATO I wonder if they are working towards a stalemate where Russia gets to keep the areas it has in return for not objecting to Ukraine joining NATO.
But this small area Ukraine has just taken back puts a big spanner in the works for Russia
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by wheelnut »

Mussels wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:36 pm Given Ukraine's recent calls to join NATO I wonder if they are working towards a stalemate where Russia gets to keep the areas it has in return for not objecting to Ukraine joining NATO.
But this small area Ukraine has just taken back puts a big spanner in the works for Russia
I wondered the same - seems too neat and easy unfortunately. And it still rewards Russia.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by JackyJoll »

MingtheMerciless wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:56 pm Iranian drones seem to be causing a problem, flying low and difficult to see on radar:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/2 ... r-00058802

From a not so good source, ruSSian soldiers in Kherson and Zaporiza are being given chemical warfare suits, iodine tablets and other things for radiation sickness (from twitter so take with ALL the salt).
Potassium iodide is a salt.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

Mussels wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:36 pm Given Ukraine's recent calls to join NATO I wonder if they are working towards a stalemate where Russia gets to keep the areas it has in return for not objecting to Ukraine joining NATO.
But this small area Ukraine has just taken back puts a big spanner in the works for Russia
It's just confidence signalling, aimed at both the west and Russia. Six months ago it was Ukraine calling for a ceasefire and dialogue, offering to give up its hopes of joining NATO. Now it's Russia calling for a ceasefire and dialogue, because Putin finally has an exit strategy that will appease both the Russian public and military. It's nothing more than a large 'fuck you' directed at Putin, designed to further demoralise Russian troops and an agitated Russian public, while reassuring the west that Ukraine will never yield as long as military aid continues to flow in its direction.