Is Russia just about to invade Ukraine?

[irie]

Yeahbutt they'll be "breaking international law in a very specific and limited way." Which nowadays is quite fashionable.

Is “international law” actually a real thing

Not if people keep ignoring it.

You did not answer the question.

[Mussels]

I thought it was just a term made up by people who can't find a better argument to object to something

[slowsider]

Is “international law” actually a real thing

Not if people keep ignoring it.

You did not answer the question.

Perhaps people will keep ignoring you too.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_law

[slowsider]

I thought it was just a term made up by people who can't find a better argument to object to something

You could be a Tory leadership candidate...

[DEADPOOL]

The Ukraine NATO veto is not true. Lots of words, no signed agreement. Same with membership of the EU which is effectively the same thing without a treaty.

I don't believe Zelensky either or at least I wouldn't take him at his word (niether would Putin). Although he was (?) an actor sponsored by a billionaire oligarch, he is no politician, Ukraine is a mini version of Russia.

Ok. "lunatic" is the wrong word. How about psychopath? Happy??

Lol. Both sides negotiated on March 15th, with Ukraine stating it was willing to compromise on NATO membership in return for security guarantees. The same day, Zelensky announced to the world that Ukraine had given up its ambition of joining NATO. In return, he wanted Russia to pull out of Ukraine. An agreement can only be signed if the other party accepts it. If NATO membership was the reason Putin invaded, why didn't he accept the proposals? After all, his aim would have been completed.
And no, membership of the EU is not effectively the same thing. Not even close.

Well it's not funny really...

Anyhow, when I read that I just see you agreeing with the statement that Ukraine (and The NATO alliance) has not signed an international treaty which would prevent Ukraine from ever applying for NATO membership.

I suggest that in an historical context, should Ukraine ever become an EU member state (extraordinarily unlikely given the pseudo democratic/westernised structure of governance, not dissimilar to Russia) then membership of NATO would inevitably follow.

If you're asking me why that informal suggestion didn't persuade Putin, I think it's because it was too little too late.

[DEADPOOL]

I thought it was just a term made up by people who can't find a better argument to object to something

I think international law is now "whatever I say it is". That's what you'll get from Putin, Ping and Biden. They're all just making stuff up and manipulating the media to bury any dissent from "the party line".

<edit> not saying I "blame" COVID but the pandemic has really altered the rulebook so that world leaders are now emboldened by the new powers that they have granted themselves. Look at Trudeau in Canada. He's gone power mad...

[Hoonercat]

The Ukraine NATO veto is not true. Lots of words, no signed agreement. Same with membership of the EU which is effectively the same thing without a treaty.

I don't believe Zelensky either or at least I wouldn't take him at his word (niether would Putin). Although he was (?) an actor sponsored by a billionaire oligarch, he is no politician, Ukraine is a mini version of Russia.

Ok. "lunatic" is the wrong word. How about psychopath? Happy??

Lol. Both sides negotiated on March 15th, with Ukraine stating it was willing to compromise on NATO membership in return for security guarantees. The same day, Zelensky announced to the world that Ukraine had given up its ambition of joining NATO. In return, he wanted Russia to pull out of Ukraine. An agreement can only be signed if the other party accepts it. If NATO membership was the reason Putin invaded, why didn't he accept the proposals? After all, his aim would have been completed.
And no, membership of the EU is not effectively the same thing. Not even close.

Well it's not funny really...

Anyhow, when I read that I just see you agreeing with the statement that Ukraine (and The NATO alliance) has not signed an international treaty which would prevent Ukraine from ever applying for NATO membership.

I suggest that in an historical context, should Ukraine ever become an EU member state (extraordinarily unlikely given the pseudo democratic/westernised structure of governance, not dissimilar to Russia) then membership of NATO would inevitably follow.

If you're asking me why that informal suggestion didn't persuade Putin, I think it's because it was too little too late.

It wasn't 'informal', there were international representatives present to oversee and witness the negotiations. Why would NATO and Ukraine sign anything that would prevent Ukraine from ever joining without Russia's agreement to pull out of Ukraine in return? If, as you claim, the only reason for the invasion was the NATO issue, how can it be too little too late, he's getting exactly what he wanted? (or exactly what you think he wanted).

[Hoonercat]

I thought it was just a term made up by people who can't find a better argument to object to something

I think international law is now "whatever I say it is".

Having read your recent comments, I'd have to agree with that

[DEADPOOL]

,
It wasn't 'informal', there were international representatives present to oversee and witness the negotiations. Why would NATO and Ukraine sign anything that would prevent Ukraine from ever joining without Russia's agreement to pull out of Ukraine in return? If, as you claim, the only reason for the invasion was the NATO issue, how can it be too little too late, he's getting exactly what he wanted? (or exactly what you think he wanted).

You said that Putin is carrying on with the invasion despite an offer of assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO. That is simply not true. There were discussions, negotiations etc. but no actual formal agreements. Without knowing the entire content of those negotiations we cannot know if any offer was sufficiently robust to satisfy Putin, ergo, we cannot say whether or not a veto of NATO membership was his prime objective.

I say it was. Other opinions are available.

[DEADPOOL]

I think international law is now "whatever I say it is". That's what you'll get from Putin, Ping and Biden. They're all just making stuff up and manipulating the media to bury any dissent from "the party line".

Having read your recent comments, I'd have to agree with that

Finally we agree.

[irie]

,
It wasn't 'informal', there were international representatives present to oversee and witness the negotiations. Why would NATO and Ukraine sign anything that would prevent Ukraine from ever joining without Russia's agreement to pull out of Ukraine in return? If, as you claim, the only reason for the invasion was the NATO issue, how can it be too little too late, he's getting exactly what he wanted? (or exactly what you think he wanted).

You said that Putin is carrying on with the invasion despite an offer of assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO. That is simply not true. There were discussions, negotiations etc. but no actual formal agreements. Without knowing the entire content of those negotiations we cannot know if any offer was sufficiently robust to satisfy Putin, ergo, we cannot say whether or not a veto of NATO membership was his prime objective.

I say it was. Other opinions are available.

If anyone believes that Putin's ambitions are anything less than the unification of Russia and Ukraine then they're living in La La Land.

From:

Putin: "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“, 12.07.2021
...
I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia. Our spiritual, human and civilizational ties formed for centuries and have their origins in the same sources, they have been hardened by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people.
...

Shhhh, let's pretend that the Ukrainian Holodomor didn't take place ...

[DEADPOOL]

You said that Putin is carrying on with the invasion despite an offer of assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO. That is simply not true. There were discussions, negotiations etc. but no actual formal agreements. Without knowing the entire content of those negotiations we cannot know if any offer was sufficiently robust to satisfy Putin, ergo, we cannot say whether or not a veto of NATO membership was his prime objective.

I say it was. Other opinions are available.

If anyone believes that Putin's ambitions are anything less than the unification of Russia and Ukraine then they're living in La La Land.

We are having two separate arguments here and membership of NATO/reunification of Ukraine are not entirely separate issues as Hoonercat seems to think. They are mutually consistent, complementary objectives. Clearly one must follow the other...

Even a psychopath like Putin would have considered and possibly even planned how precisely he was going to achieve reunification. It is my view that his hand was "forced" by the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU and therefore also on a path towards NATO membership. The timing too with not just a weak USA with a lame duck president but also a post pandemic world.

On top of that and as you suggest earlier, whoever is actually running the Biden administration decided it would be a good idea to allow Nord Stream 2 to go ahead. Like I said earlier, another green light for Putin and I suggest, further indication that global affairs are being manipulated by the rich+powerful for their own personal benefit, ignoring the rather obvious geopolitical chaos such dependency could promote.

[irie]

... global affairs are being manipulated by the rich+powerful for their own personal benefit ...

Looking here, looking there, conspiracies everywhere.

[Flux]

... global affairs are being manipulated by the rich+powerful for their own personal benefit ...

Looking here, looking there, conspiracies everywhere.

Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean your not being followed (an old hippy saying)

[Hoonercat]

You said that Putin is carrying on with the invasion despite an offer of assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO. That is simply not true. There were discussions, negotiations etc. but no actual formal agreements. Without knowing the entire content of those negotiations we cannot know if any offer was sufficiently robust to satisfy Putin, ergo, we cannot say whether or not a veto of NATO membership was his prime objective.

I say it was. Other opinions are available.

If anyone believes that Putin's ambitions are anything less than the unification of Russia and Ukraine then they're living in La La Land.

We are having two separate arguments here and membership of NATO/reunification of Ukraine are not entirely separate issues as Hoonercat seems to think. They are mutually consistent, complementary objectives. Clearly one must follow the other...

I think there's a bit of a mix up here, given that I haven't mentioned reunification. My responses were to the two seperate issues that you mentioned, Putin's objection to NATO membership and NATO's response to the invasion of Crimea. The conversation then moved on to the current situation, with you stating that the NATO issue was the only reason for the current invasion, which I disagreed with. It may have played a part in his reasoning, but I don't believe it was the major factor.
As for reunification, it's clear that Putin would very much want that but I don't believe he thought it possible (at least not this time round ) Taking Kyiv would have been the quickest and most efficient way of acheiving that aim, yet depite the size of the Russian force that headed towards Kyiv, it moved with all the speed of a disabled sloth and very few actually engaged, before eventually turning around and leaving, having tied up a large chunk of Ukraine forces long enough to have made the deployment in the south and Donbas an easier affair for Russia.

[slowsider]

... global affairs are being manipulated by the rich+powerful for their own personal benefit ...

Looking here, looking there, conspiracies everywhere.

"America’s billionaire class is funding anti-democratic forces" Robert Reich

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg ... tic-forces

[DEADPOOL]

... global affairs are being manipulated by the rich+powerful for their own personal benefit ...

Looking here, looking there, conspiracies everywhere.

This is a common misconception. even though the WEF have proposed this so called "great reset" it is not a conspiracy. Each vast ocean of unimaginably huge personal wealth is being accumulated at an ever increasing rate by individuals sometimes in collusion but always for their personal benefit. A simple mathematical analysis will show that the more money an individual has, the more easily they are able to acquire more of it.

It is merely how the game of capitalism must play out but unlike the parody of this game called Monopoly, there can be no winner. Not Bill Gates, not Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos, not even the "team" called Black Rock. Eventually this relatively small group of humans will own all the money in the world.

What they have forgotten is that while they are all busy amassing their personal fortunes, sometimes a reward for brilliant work but more often than not by devious manipulation of a flawed system, there are also losers. It is a zero sum game. I win, you lose.

That cannot go on forever. Care must be taken of this precious planet, instead there is a catastrophic race to burn through all of its resources as quickly as possible to amass ever greater fortune. Soon there will be nothing left for the billions of other humans more concerned with mere survival. No fresh food, no clean water, no fuel for heating.

There may yet be a "great reset" but not the festival of greed that Klaus Schwab and his cronies are hoping for. More of a blood bath....

[Horse]

... global affairs are being manipulated by the rich+powerful for their own personal benefit ...

Each vast ocean of unimaginably huge personal wealth is being accumulated at an ever increasing rate by individuals sometimes in collusion but always for their personal benefit. A simple mathematical analysis will show that the more money an individual has, the more easily they are able to acquire more of it.

What they have forgotten is that while they are all busy amassing their personal fortunes, sometimes a reward for brilliant work but more often than not by devious manipulation of a flawed system, there are also losers. It is a zero sum game. I win, you lose.

Hardly anything new, though.

[slowsider]

Hardly anything new

But that's just 'heritage'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.specta ... ay-job/amp

[Horse]

Hardly anything new

But that's just 'heritage'

And before that was invented, 'history'.



It would be interesting to see an estimate of how distribution of wealth has varied, say through the last 3,000 years.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was something consistent, with 1% population having 99% wealth.