Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Count Steer]

...
The West has carefully avoided putting sanctions on oil and gas
...

https://www.csis.org/analysis/european- ... ussian-oil

European Union Imposes Partial Ban on Russian Oil
June 8, 2022

The European Union has imposed a partial embargo on Russian crude oil and petroleum products, as well as a ban on shipping insurance for oil exports from Russia. But it may be hard to achieve its goal of taking Russian oil off the market and cutting Russian export revenue without hurting consumers in Europe and elsewhere.

Q1: What is included in the EU sanctions package?

A1: On June 3, the European Union adopted a sixth package of sanctions, including a partial embargo on Russian oil. The sanctions will ban seaborne imports of Russian crude oil as of December 5, 2022, and ban petroleum product imports as of February 5, 2023.

Which takes us nicely back to my original point. In a questionable move, in the absence of effective sanctions on gas, Putin has put effectively put them on by himself. (But not on his chum Orban in Hungary).

I assume the idea is to prevent winter stocks being built up but it will also sharpen minds when it comes to working out how to quickly wean customers off the addiction to, what was, cheap Russian gas.

Just to spice things up, Norway has a water shortage due to dry weather and may have to cut exports of electricity from hydroelectric. That's quite a hit for the UK if they do...they supply the equivalent to 5% of our domestic consumption. Mothballed coal power stations on stand-by.

Interesting times.

[irie]

More spice is the water shortage in the Rhine which is stopping barges moving, and in France causing problems with nuclear reactor cooling using river water.

If I had to bet on it I would back late February 2023 as the key "tipping point".

[Hoonercat]

...
The West has carefully avoided putting sanctions on oil and gas
...

https://www.csis.org/analysis/european- ... ussian-oil

European Union Imposes Partial Ban on Russian Oil
June 8, 2022

The European Union has imposed a partial embargo on Russian crude oil and petroleum products, as well as a ban on shipping insurance for oil exports from Russia. But it may be hard to achieve its goal of taking Russian oil off the market and cutting Russian export revenue without hurting consumers in Europe and elsewhere.

Q1: What is included in the EU sanctions package?

A1: On June 3, the European Union adopted a sixth package of sanctions, including a partial embargo on Russian oil. The sanctions will ban seaborne imports of Russian crude oil as of December 5, 2022, and ban petroleum product imports as of February 5, 2023.

As twice before last century, it will be the USA hand in hand with the UK and other non-European countries which will largely have to carry the fight against an imperialist fascist state, in this case Russia.

Russian oil sales 2021 (approx):
Australia €56 million
Canada €201 million
UK €4.5 billion
US €17 billion
EU €100 billion

Even excluding the rest of the EU, Germany's (€23 billion) ban alone will have as much, if not more, financial impact on Russia than the UK and US combined

[Kneerly Down]

Just to spice things up, Norway has a water shortage due to dry weather and may have to cut exports of electricity from hydroelectric. That's quite a hit for the UK if they do...they supply the equivalent to 5% of our domestic consumption. Mothballed coal power stations on stand-by.

I'd been looking at Gridwatch recently.
The Norwegian, Dutch and French interconnectors that normally flow leccy to us have been maxxed out flowing the other way quite a bit recently.
I think this is mostly that so much LNG has been flowing to the UK, trying to get into the European grid, but with the gas pipelines also maxxed out from UK-Europe we've been burning loads in the CCGT generators.
There's an odd thing going on that I haven't read up sufficiently but something like the price of gas in the UK being very cheap (because of all the LNG vying to get into the grid) but the benchmark price is high IIRC because it's based on the UK-Continent injection point pricing rather than for essentially UK domestic consumption.

So, anyway, upshot is the UK is generating quite a bit of leccy for Europe...they need us more than....

[Mr. Dazzle]

There are duller ways to spend one's evening I suppose, but I can't think what they might be.

[Count Steer]

Just to spice things up, Norway has a water shortage due to dry weather and may have to cut exports of electricity from hydroelectric. That's quite a hit for the UK if they do...they supply the equivalent to 5% of our domestic consumption. Mothballed coal power stations on stand-by.

I'd been looking at Gridwatch recently.
The Norwegian, Dutch and French interconnectors that normally flow leccy to us have been maxxed out flowing the other way quite a bit recently.
I think this is mostly that so much LNG has been flowing to the UK, trying to get into the European grid, but with the gas pipelines also maxxed out from UK-Europe we've been burning loads in the CCGT generators.
There's an odd thing going on that I haven't read up sufficiently but something like the price of gas in the UK being very cheap (because of all the LNG vying to get into the grid) but the benchmark price is high IIRC because it's based on the UK-Continent injection point pricing rather than for essentially UK domestic consumption.

So, anyway, upshot is the UK is generating quite a bit of leccy for Europe...they need us more than....

Yup. They've had to bring capacity on-line (probably CCGT) that doesn't normally get used in summer, to avoid black-outs in a couple of areas rather than cut supply to France (which I assume they're contracted to supply). It's not been very windy recently too so that's not helped.

Pushing gas across the Channel is helping to build stocks but I assume it's v profitable too.

As a vaguely connected aside, I was reading about BPs LNG fleet. (I used to have a professional interest ). Their dual fuel diesel-electric ships use 40 tonnes less fuel per day than conventional ships. 40 tonnes a day....less!!! IIRC BP brought a lot of LNG in from Egypt but that seemed to stop. There have been years when imports from there have been 0.

[Mussels]

I was trying to find out which French politician wanted to cut the UK off from European energy networks not long ago, couldn't find it but love this article from 2006 which predicted exactly what's happening now while European leaders were kissing Putin's butt.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6062044.stm

[Mr. Dazzle]

"The crudest is simply that in some future and unpredictable crisis Russia could turn off the gas and Europe would freeze. This hypothetical concern became more of a real worry at the beginning of this year when Russia did briefly cut supplies to Ukraine and Georgia. Russians and many western experts poo-poo this fear. They say Russia never used gas as a political weapon even during the Cold War, so it's hardly likely to do so now."

Like fine wine

[irie]

I was trying to find out which French politician wanted to cut the UK off from European energy networks not long ago, couldn't find it but love this article from 2006 which predicted exactly what's happening now while European leaders were kissing Putin's butt.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6062044.stm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ow-channel

The EU could hit Britain and Jersey’s energy supply over the UK’s failure to provide sufficient fishing licences to French fishers, France’s EU affairs minister has said.

Clément Beaune, who is a close ally of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said action would be decided on within days and discussions were already in motion.

[Kneerly Down]

There are duller ways to spend one's evening I suppose, but I can't think what they might be.

I did it during the day...when I was being paid to work...which it was...mostly.

[Mussels]

There are duller ways to spend one's evening I suppose, but I can't think what they might be.

I did it during the day...when I was being paid to work...which it was...mostly.

Beats my day working out how to sell more drugs to American doctors.

[irie]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62482425

Ukraine war: Blasts rock Russian airbase in annexed Crimea

Sergei Aksyonov wrote on social media that the blasts had taken place at the Saky military base near Novofedorivka on the peninsula's western coast. Footage circulating on social media appeared to show several explosions.

The Ukrainian peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014 is a popular destination with Russian tourists, and one video appeared to show visitors fleeing from a beach as smoke rose in the background.

Local witnesses told the Reuters agency that they heard at least 12 blasts, beginning at about 15:20 local time (12:20 GMT).

Perhaps also a way of flushing Russian tourists out of Crimea as a precursor to destroying the Kerch bridge linking Eastern Crimea and Russia which would seriously degrade Russian supply lines to Crimea.

[irie]

Being reported that at least 9 Russian aircraft at Saki air base in the Crimea were destroyed during the Ukrainian attack.

Seems that the base has Su-25 (cost about USD$11m) and Su-30 (cost about USD$30m) based there.

If this is the case the attack will therefore have destroyed aircraft costing between USD$99m and USD$270m ...

[JackyJoll]

Being reported that at least 9 Russian aircraft at Saki air base in the Crimea were destroyed during the Ukrainian attack.

Seems that the base has Su-25 (cost about USD$11m) and Su-30 (cost about USD$30m) based there.

If this is the case the attack will therefore have destroyed aircraft costing between USD$99m and USD$270m ...

War is hell. Not only that- it’s expensive.

[Horse]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62500560

[irie]

[Horse]

Ruskies aren't so good at this Heath and Safety stuff.

The airbase was 'accidental', this one:

A military base in Russian-occupied Crimea has been hit by a series of explosions, reportedly leaving at least two people hurt.

Russian officials said a fire triggered the blasts at an arms dump in the Dzhankoi area in northern Crimea.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62560041

[slowsider]

Ruskies aren't so good at this Heath and Safety stuff.

The airbase was 'accidental', this one:

A military base in Russian-occupied Crimea has been hit by a series of explosions, reportedly leaving at least two people hurt.

Russian officials said a fire triggered the blasts at an arms dump in the Dzhankoi area in northern Crimea.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62560041

Ffs, its hearth and safety.

[Hoonercat]

According to the BBC, 20,000 of Russia's 160,000 Jews have left for Israel since the start of the war, with many concerned that if Russia needs an 'internal enemy', they will be in the firing line. I've also read that there is an 8 month waiting list with the Jewish Agency in Russia (sorry, can't find the link). Russia are currently attempting to have the agency closed down or at the very least have their operations limited, in what many observers are calling an attempt to 'stop the brain drain'.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-in ... ial-opens/

[slowsider]

According to the BBC, 20,000 of Russia's 160,000 Jews have left for Israel since the start of the war, with many concerned that if Russia needs an 'internal enemy', they will be in the firing line. I've also read that there is an 8 month waiting list with the Jewish Agency in Russia (sorry, can't find the link). Russia are currently attempting to have the agency closed down or at the very least have their operations limited, in what many observers are calling an attempt to 'stop the brain drain'.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-in ... ial-opens/

Oh the irony.
They move to Israel and need a place to live. The state annexes land illegally and encourages settlers to occupy it. The current owners resist, but curiously this time the West doesnt send arms or impose sanctions on the occupiers.