Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Current affairs, Politics, News.

Will Russia invade the Ukraine

Yes
19
50%
No
11
29%
Maybe
8
21%
 
Total votes: 38

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irie
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

You gotta love Sabina Higgins' (wife of the Irish President Michael Higgins) own goal. :lol:

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2022-08-02 ... ine-letter
Irish President's wife Sabina Higgins ‘dismayed’ by criticism as she defends Ukraine letter

The letter said the fighting would go on until the world “persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations”.

Fianna Fail senator Malcolm Byrne said Mrs Higgins was “totally wrong to try to see an equivalence in the positions of Ukraine and Russia”, while Fine Gael senator John McGahon said “interventions like this are seen as a tacit endorsement of the Russian regime”.

In recent days, pressure has been mounting for an explanation why the letter was reportedly published for a brief period on the Irish president’s official website.
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Count Steer
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Count Steer »

slowsider wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:00 am
irie wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:40 am Updated list (thanks @Mussels):

So far Russia has stopped gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, and Latvia.

Who's next and when?
Have a look at who applied sanctions on Russia for a start.
It's an interesting one. The West has carefully avoided putting sanctions on oil and gas...so Putin has put them on himself. The resultant loss of income can't be balanced by a quick pivot towards China (the current gas connection is way smaller than the capacity via Nordstream 1 etc). Even if they could switch, China extorted a $35/barrel discount on the oil he couldn't shift and Russian oil is expensive to produce, something like $40-42 per barrel IIRC, so a $35 discount is a big slice of the margin. They're going to demand a discount on gas). If Biden can leverage more output from OPEC ie Saudi Arabia (production cost $15/barrel), Russia has an income problem and a surfeit of energy.

It's a gamble. Can he break Western unity before their weapons break his invasion? It rather looks like winter is coming and that is a factor in both energy and military arenas. Make or break time maybe.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by cheb »

He might not be the first to lose a war against Russia because of the winter but he he might be the first Russian to do so.

Skillz.

Caveat: I'm on my second bottle of fizz and don't read much itstory beyond the end of the Roman empire.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Count Steer wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:50 pm
... It's an interesting one. The West has carefully avoided putting sanctions on oil and gas...so Putin has put them on himself. The resultant loss of income can't be balanced by a quick pivot towards China ...
Given that gas supplies to the EU have dropped to perhaps 25% of what they were in 2021, and gas prices have increased by at least 4 fold over the same period, then Putin's onto a nice fat earner.

I think the only need to 'pivot' elsewhere is driven by the physical need to keep gas fields open, unlike oil fields which can be 'capped' (but I could be wrong about this).
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Russian gas flows August 2021-2022.jpg
Russian gas flows August 2021-2022.jpg (140.21 KiB) Viewed 40 times
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno