Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[irie]

^ The Germans really do not see the Russians in the same way as we, or the USA does.

They are definitely hedging their bets - it will have nothing to do what is best for Ukraine, or the EU. Only what is best for the German Industrial Machine - and the money it makes

This.

For example, after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germ ... F020140516

German industry is ramping up efforts to dissuade Chancellor Angela Merkel from imposing tough new economic sanctions on Russia over Ukraine, warning of lasting damage to domestic firms and the broader economy if Moscow is hit hard.

[Supermofo]

It does seem from what I've read that the Germans do appear to have a soft spot for Russia/Russians.

Which is a bit odd given they've gone to war with them twice in recent history, the second time as essentially a war of annihilation and lost half their country to them for decades. With that half living under one of the worst regimes in the Wasaw pact.

Is it a war guilt thing? I mean all the Poles I've spoken to hate Russia

[irie]

As Mr Moofo said ...

^ The Germans really do not see the Russians in the same way as we, or the USA does.

They are definitely hedging their bets - it will have nothing to do what is best for Ukraine, or the EU. Only what is best for the German Industrial Machine - and the money it makes

... it's money.

[Cousin Jack]

^ The Germans really do not see the Russians in the same way as we, or the USA does.

They are definitely hedging their bets - it will have nothing to do what is best for Ukraine, or the EU. Only what is best for the German Industrial Machine - and the money it makes

IIRC not only are German forces starved of money, but on deployment (eg for NATO) their rules of engagement are ludicrous. Like not being allowed out at night because it is "too dangerous".

[Hoonercat]

Russian troops sink to a new low.

The clip, posted on a pro-Russian account on Telegram, shows a man in a Ukrainian uniform pinned down with his mouth gagged, and his hands tied behind his back, while a man in a Russian camouflage uses what appears to be bolt cutters to remove his genitalia, before throwing the body part away. The barbaric footage first emerged Thursday on several Russian Telegram channels as a sick warning to Ukrainian mothers not to send their sons to war, the Kyiv Post said. Two soldiers who appear in the clip speak in Russian and stand near a car with the capital letter Z, the symbol used for the Kremlin’s troops, the New York Post reports. The victim can be seen bound and bloodied with his backside exposed while he is being tortured and then killed.

“After the torture, he was shot dead and his body dragged through the streets on a rope,” the war news site Ukraine Watch said Friday

Bellingcat:

The same soldier appeared on a Russian TV clip (with same hat and bracelet) and there was no evidence the video had been manipulated

[irie]

So far Russia has stopped gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Finland, and Denmark.

Who's next and when?

[Mussels]

So far Russia has stopped gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Finland, and Denmark.

Who's next and when?

Latvia yesterday.

[Hoonercat]

So far Russia has stopped gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Finland, and Denmark.

Who's next and when?

Try reading the news

[irie]

Updated list (thanks @Mussels):

So far Russia has stopped gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, and Latvia.

Who's next and when?

[slowsider]

Updated list (thanks @Mussels):

So far Russia has stopped gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, and Latvia.

Who's next and when?

Have a look at who applied sanctions on Russia for a start.

[irie]

Enjoy.

[Skub]

When are we getting the 'will China invade Taiwan' thread?

[slowsider]

Enjoy.

Seriously?

[irie]

You gotta love Sabina Higgins' (wife of the Irish President Michael Higgins) own goal.

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2022-08-02 ... ine-letter

Irish President's wife Sabina Higgins ‘dismayed’ by criticism as she defends Ukraine letter

The letter said the fighting would go on until the world “persuades President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations”.

Fianna Fail senator Malcolm Byrne said Mrs Higgins was “totally wrong to try to see an equivalence in the positions of Ukraine and Russia”, while Fine Gael senator John McGahon said “interventions like this are seen as a tacit endorsement of the Russian regime”.

In recent days, pressure has been mounting for an explanation why the letter was reportedly published for a brief period on the Irish president’s official website.

[Count Steer]

Updated list (thanks @Mussels):

So far Russia has stopped gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, and Latvia.

Who's next and when?

Have a look at who applied sanctions on Russia for a start.

It's an interesting one. The West has carefully avoided putting sanctions on oil and gas...so Putin has put them on himself. The resultant loss of income can't be balanced by a quick pivot towards China (the current gas connection is way smaller than the capacity via Nordstream 1 etc). Even if they could switch, China extorted a $35/barrel discount on the oil he couldn't shift and Russian oil is expensive to produce, something like $40-42 per barrel IIRC, so a $35 discount is a big slice of the margin. They're going to demand a discount on gas). If Biden can leverage more output from OPEC ie Saudi Arabia (production cost $15/barrel), Russia has an income problem and a surfeit of energy.

It's a gamble. Can he break Western unity before their weapons break his invasion? It rather looks like winter is coming and that is a factor in both energy and military arenas. Make or break time maybe.

[cheb]

He might not be the first to lose a war against Russia because of the winter but he he might be the first Russian to do so.

Skillz.

Caveat: I'm on my second bottle of fizz and don't read much itstory beyond the end of the Roman empire.

[irie]

... It's an interesting one. The West has carefully avoided putting sanctions on oil and gas...so Putin has put them on himself. The resultant loss of income can't be balanced by a quick pivot towards China ...

Given that gas supplies to the EU have dropped to perhaps 25% of what they were in 2021, and gas prices have increased by at least 4 fold over the same period, then Putin's onto a nice fat earner.

I think the only need to 'pivot' elsewhere is driven by the physical need to keep gas fields open, unlike oil fields which can be 'capped' (but I could be wrong about this).
.

Russian gas flows August 2021-2022.jpg (140.21 KiB) Viewed 559 times

[Mussels]

Russia seems to be endorsing the formation of regional battle groups, this is hell of a gamble for them as it means that regions in Russia will have their own armies. Lets hope they don't get upset with the Kremlin.

[Count Steer]

... It's an interesting one. The West has carefully avoided putting sanctions on oil and gas...so Putin has put them on himself. The resultant loss of income can't be balanced by a quick pivot towards China ...

Given that gas supplies to the EU have dropped to perhaps 25% of what they were in 2021, and gas prices have increased by at least 4 fold over the same period, then Putin's onto a nice fat earner.

I think the only need to 'pivot' elsewhere is driven by the physical need to keep gas fields open, unlike oil fields which can be 'capped' (but I could be wrong about this).
.

Russian gas flows August 2021-2022.jpg

Gas volumes are only part of the story though. Market data on oil and gas traded show a drop to $14.9 billion in May - less than half what it was in the first month after the invasion. In large part due to the discount on oil China has exacted as sanction-buster of last resort and the increase in shipping cost due to insurance issues. Cutting gas flows will only add to that but, higher prices will indeed offset some of the loss and they cannot pivot much of the surplus to China.

If Saudi opened the taps on oil, Russia could make a loss per barrel if market price drops by $15/barrel.

However, those numbers apart, something is working because the Russian finance minister has acknowledged that there is a budget deficit of 2% of GDP (so it's likely to be higher than that if that's what he's owning up to!). To cover the deficit he's planning to dive into the National Wealth Fund ie withdraw 1/3 of it. They've doubled the money supply, inflation is 20% overall and 60% in some key sectors and foreign exchange reserves are down by $75 billion.

If the West can keep it together the Russian economic crisis will become a political one. As I said, winter is coming....who blinks first?

[irie]

...
The West has carefully avoided putting sanctions on oil and gas
...

https://www.csis.org/analysis/european- ... ussian-oil

European Union Imposes Partial Ban on Russian Oil
June 8, 2022

The European Union has imposed a partial embargo on Russian crude oil and petroleum products, as well as a ban on shipping insurance for oil exports from Russia. But it may be hard to achieve its goal of taking Russian oil off the market and cutting Russian export revenue without hurting consumers in Europe and elsewhere.

Q1: What is included in the EU sanctions package?

A1: On June 3, the European Union adopted a sixth package of sanctions, including a partial embargo on Russian oil. The sanctions will ban seaborne imports of Russian crude oil as of December 5, 2022, and ban petroleum product imports as of February 5, 2023.

As twice before last century, it will be the USA hand in hand with the UK and other non-European countries which will largely have to carry the fight against an imperialist fascist state, in this case Russia.