Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Yambo]

Which is after all what the Russians have said they wanted all along - not a complete occupation of Ukraine.

I personally find it difficult to believe anything the Russians say.

Maybe you can tell me why a much publicised failed incursion towards Kyiv was launched if all they wanted was to set up an autonomous region in the Donbas. Maybe my geography fu is lacking.

Russia is currently using heavy artillery to drive the Ukrainians out of the Donbas. I struggle to see why, after they've flattened the place they'd want to occupy it. They may eventually take enough ground to be happy but it has already come at a huge cost. As a plan, it doesn't have a lot of merit.

They've persuaded Sweden and Finland to seek the security of NATO, they've isolated themselves from the West, their military has been shown up as mostly incompetent, their logistics are shite and I suspect they'll soon run out of serviceable artillery gun barrels. Corruption appears to be the only strong point.

Ukraine shouldn't give them an inch. That too will come at a huge cost but if the Ukrainians want to be an independent sovereign state, they're going to and will, I think have to accept that cost. Good luck and more HIMARS to them!

[irie]

Which is after all what the Russians have said they wanted all along - not a complete occupation of Ukraine.

...
Maybe you can tell me why a much publicised failed incursion towards Kyiv was launched if all they wanted was to set up an autonomous region in the Donbas. Maybe my geography fu is lacking.
...
Ukraine shouldn't give them an inch. That too will come at a huge cost but if the Ukrainians want to be an independent sovereign state, they're going to and will, I think have to accept that cost. Good luck and more HIMARS to them!

This.

[Supermofo]

If Russia keeps shooting down their own planes it'll help Sounds like 2 now.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambl ... sing-them/

Sounds like their SU34M's should be operating with smart weapons from afar but aren't and are operating in the danger zone with dumb bombs. Which suggests they are being forced too. Now they have to worry about their own air defences as well as Ukraine's.

[irie]

“Russia is blackmailing us, Russia is using energy as a weapon.

“It is a likely scenario that there is a full cut-off of Russian gas and that would hit the whole European Union. A gas crisis in the single market, our economic powerhouse, will affect every single member state.”

Well I never, who would have ever thought that the widely misunderstood cuddly Russians might ever do such a dastardly thing.

[Hoonercat]

Ukraine shouldn't give them an inch. That too will come at a huge cost but if the Ukrainians want to be an independent sovereign state, they're going to and will, I think have to accept that cost. Good luck and more HIMARS to them!

Agree with the sentiment, but winter is only 14/15 weeks away and with much of Ukraine deprived of power, that cost could be horrendous. In the Donbas region alone, there is said to be 625,000 premises without power. The Ukraine military has stated that Russia is now conserving its long-range capabilities, presenting it as a positive to show Russia is running low. It's quite likely that Russia is conserving it long-range capabilities for winter, when it will target the energy infrastructure far from the front line in an attempt to break the will of the Ukraine people. It's a terrible thought, but winter could see tens of thousands freezing to death.

Russia, on the other hand, needs to ensure its troops are equipped to survive winter and their artillery continues to function. The initial assault took place in the north towards the end of winter, so you would assume those troops were equipped for winter, but the bulk of Russian troops didn't arrive in Donbas until early spring. With the Russian logistical failures and Ukraine targetting their storage depots and supply lines, it may be very difficult getting enough winter equipment to the front lines before winter sets in. Even if the advance stalls, they will still need a sizeable troop presence to hold the front lines, and a lack of winter equipment could see a huge drop in morale.

[Cousin Jack]

I seem to recall that General Winter was a major factor in several Russian victories, albeit when other people were invading Russia rather than the other way around.

[Yambo]

I seem to recall that General Winter was a major factor in several Russian victories, albeit when other people were invading Russia rather than the other way around.

General Winter is certainly a player but has only been used to advantage by the Russian's in support of Russia's vast numbers of cannon fodder.

That Mayotte be the situation in this scheme.

[Hoonercat]

The Ukraine counter-offensive around Kherson in the south appears to be gaining ground. Losing it would be a huge blow to Russia, given it was the first city they occupied.

The Ministry of Defence concludes that Russia’s 49th Army stationed on the west bank of the Dnipro river “now looks highly vulnerable” and that the city of Kherson is now cut off from the rest of the territory controlled by Moscow.

[irie]

Forgive me for concluding that these two events may not be entirely unrelated.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... y-87484995

Russia cuts gas through Nord Stream 1 to 20% of capacity

Russia’s Gazprom has halved the amount of gas flowing through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe to 20% of full capacity

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... r-ukraine/

Germany authorizes production of 100 howitzers for Ukraine

It will likely take a while before the state-of-the-art weapons arrive to the battlefield.

If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives.

[Hoonercat]

Forgive me for concluding that these two events may not be entirely unrelated.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... y-87484995

Russia cuts gas through Nord Stream 1 to 20% of capacity

Russia’s Gazprom has halved the amount of gas flowing through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe to 20% of full capacity

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... r-ukraine/

Germany authorizes production of 100 howitzers for Ukraine

It will likely take a while before the state-of-the-art weapons arrive to the battlefield.

Got to love the way Politico just makes up the stuff they don't know

Welt
It is still unclear when the first howitzers will go to Ukraine. The production of all howitzers is likely to last for several years.

Kyiv Independent
The order will take several years to complete, according to the report. Spiegel added that it was not yet clear when the first howitzers could be delivered.

Interfax-Ukraine
The first new howitzers can be delivered 30 months after the signing of the contract, that is, not earlier than in the second half of 2024. The full delivery will not be completed until 2027.

This is a contract between Ukraine and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, the German Govt only had to approve it (took all of 2 days for approval, once submitted by KMW). It's a future defence contract. Ukraine had the option of the cheaper, static version which could have been delivered earlier (from existing stock).

If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives.

Or not....

[irie]

Forgive me for concluding that these two events may not be entirely unrelated.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... y-87484995

Russia cuts gas through Nord Stream 1 to 20% of capacity

Russia’s Gazprom has halved the amount of gas flowing through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe to 20% of full capacity

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... r-ukraine/

Germany authorizes production of 100 howitzers for Ukraine

It will likely take a while before the state-of-the-art weapons arrive to the battlefield.

Got to love the way Politico just makes up the stuff they don't know

Welt
It is still unclear when the first howitzers will go to Ukraine. The production of all howitzers is likely to last for several years.

Kyiv Independent
The order will take several years to complete, according to the report. Spiegel added that it was not yet clear when the first howitzers could be delivered.

Interfax-Ukraine
The first new howitzers can be delivered 30 months after the signing of the contract, that is, not earlier than in the second half of 2024. The full delivery will not be completed until 2027.

This is a contract between Ukraine and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, the German Govt only had to approve it (took all of 2 days for approval, once submitted by KMW). It's a future defence contract. Ukraine had the option of the cheaper, static version which could have been delivered earlier (from existing stock).

If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives.

Or not....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000

Germany: 185 delivered between 1998 and 2002.[16] 7 were sent to Ukraine in 2022. 16 sold to Croatia and 21 to Lithuania. 108 to remain in active service.

Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

[Count Steer]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000

Germany: 185 delivered between 1998 and 2002.[16] 7 were sent to Ukraine in 2022. 16 sold to Croatia and 21 to Lithuania. 108 to remain in active service.

Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

Eh? Wossat got to do with the KMW contract? They started manufacture before approval anyway, delivery will be over a period. Germany and the Netherlands have already donated a number.

The contract is completely unlinked to gas supply changes it's been in the works for a while.

[irie]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000

Germany: 185 delivered between 1998 and 2002.[16] 7 were sent to Ukraine in 2022. 16 sold to Croatia and 21 to Lithuania. 108 to remain in active service.

Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

Eh? Wossat got to do with the KMW contract? They started manufacture before approval anyway, delivery will be over a period. Germany and the Netherlands have already donated a number.

The contract is completely unlinked to gas supply changes it's been in the works for a while.

108 in "active service" to defend against what, exactly?

Could have given many to Ukraine.

Not like you to miss the point.

[Count Steer]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000



Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

Eh? Wossat got to do with the KMW contract? They started manufacture before approval anyway, delivery will be over a period. Germany and the Netherlands have already donated a number.

The contract is completely unlinked to gas supply changes it's been in the works for a while.

108 in "active service" to defend against what, exactly?

Could have given many to Ukraine.

Not like you to miss the point.

It's still absolutely nothing to do with the approval of the contract and/or gas supplies, which, I believe was the point you were trying to make. What point are you trying to make now that one's had holes blown in it?

[Felix]

What point are you trying to make now that one's had holes blown in it?

Pardon the pun

[Hoonercat]

Forgive me for concluding that these two events may not be entirely unrelated.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... y-87484995



https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... r-ukraine/

Got to love the way Politico just makes up the stuff they don't know

Welt
It is still unclear when the first howitzers will go to Ukraine. The production of all howitzers is likely to last for several years.

Kyiv Independent
The order will take several years to complete, according to the report. Spiegel added that it was not yet clear when the first howitzers could be delivered.

Interfax-Ukraine
The first new howitzers can be delivered 30 months after the signing of the contract, that is, not earlier than in the second half of 2024. The full delivery will not be completed until 2027.

This is a contract between Ukraine and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, the German Govt only had to approve it (took all of 2 days for approval, once submitted by KMW). It's a future defence contract. Ukraine had the option of the cheaper, static version which could have been delivered earlier (from existing stock).

If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives.

Or not....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000

Germany: 185 delivered between 1998 and 2002.[16] 7 were sent to Ukraine in 2022. 16 sold to Croatia and 21 to Lithuania. 108 to remain in active service.

Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

Well done, one of your worst responses ever. You stated 'If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives'. Germany's only role was to authorise it, the contract is between Ukraine and KMW. Germany authorised the sale within 2 days of receiving the request, feel free to explain how Germany could have authorised the sale 'months ago', on an order that didn't exist, and how it would have saved Ukraine lives, given the delivery schedule is years.
Alternatively, just post something completely irrelevant again...
Oh, and while Germany does has 100 Panzerhaubitze in service, only 40 of them are combat-ready.

[irie]

Eh? Wossat got to do with the KMW contract? They started manufacture before approval anyway, delivery will be over a period. Germany and the Netherlands have already donated a number.

The contract is completely unlinked to gas supply changes it's been in the works for a while.

108 in "active service" to defend against what, exactly?

Could have given many to Ukraine.

Not like you to miss the point.

It's still absolutely nothing to do with the approval of the contract and/or gas supplies, which, I believe was the point you were trying to make. What point are you trying to make now that one's had holes blown in it?

You are perfectly entitled to your belief that the announcement of approval is a pure coincidence and has nothing to do with Russia's cut in Nordstream 1 supplies on Wednesday.

[Count Steer]

Got to love the way Politico just makes up the stuff they don't know






This is a contract between Ukraine and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, the German Govt only had to approve it (took all of 2 days for approval, once submitted by KMW). It's a future defence contract. Ukraine had the option of the cheaper, static version which could have been delivered earlier (from existing stock).



Or not....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000

Germany: 185 delivered between 1998 and 2002.[16] 7 were sent to Ukraine in 2022. 16 sold to Croatia and 21 to Lithuania. 108 to remain in active service.

Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

Well done, one of your worst responses ever. You stated 'If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives'. Germany's only role was to authorise it, the contract is between Ukraine and KMW. Germany authorised the sale within 2 days of receiving the request, feel free to explain how Germany could have authorised the sale 'months ago', on an order that didn't exist, and how it would have saved Ukraine lives, given the delivery schedule is years.
Alternatively, just post something completely irrelevant again...
Oh, and while Germany does has 100 Panzerhaubitze in service, only 40 of them are combat-ready.

Facts don't mean much to Irie if they interfere with his anti-EU propaganda. He just ignores them.

[irie]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000

Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

Well done, one of your worst responses ever. You stated 'If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives'. Germany's only role was to authorise it, the contract is between Ukraine and KMW. Germany authorised the sale within 2 days of receiving the request, feel free to explain how Germany could have authorised the sale 'months ago', on an order that didn't exist, and how it would have saved Ukraine lives, given the delivery schedule is years.
Alternatively, just post something completely irrelevant again...
Oh, and while Germany does has 100 Panzerhaubitze in service, only 40 of them are combat-ready.

Facts don't mean much to Irie if they interfere with his anti-EU propaganda. He just ignores them.

It's not about the EU, it's rather about Germany hedging its bets.

I wasn't aware that only ~40 of Germany’s ~100 Panzerhaubitzes were in service. Thanks for that information which I'm willing to accept given Germany's woeful state of military readiness under a previous defence minister, namely Ursula von der Leyen.

Just a few of these ~40 Panzerhaubitzes given to the Ukraine would have undoubtedly saved many Ujrainian lives, but it's reasonable to surmise that they were not in order not to piss off Putin. But this of course is a misreading of Putin's intentions which he has made repeatedly clear - that he wishes to recover all land/countries previously in the Soviet Union but lost during it's collapse.

Finally, coincidences rarely turn out to be such. Time will tell.

[Mr Moofo]

^ The Germans really do not see the Russians in the same way as we, or the USA does.

They are definitely hedging their bets - it will have nothing to do what is best for Ukraine, or the EU. Only what is best for the German Industrial Machine - and the money it makes